Sunday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 5: DAL @ SF

Sunday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 5: DAL @ SF

Lines:

O/U: 45.0

49ers, –3.5

2023 DVOA:

DAL: Defense Against the Run: #12 (2023–16th most yards allowed per game at 111.8 yards; 2022–11th most yards allowed per game at 124.4 yards).

DAL: Defense Against the Pass: #1

SF: Defense Against the Run: #23 (2023–3rd fewest yards allowed per game at 66.0 yards; 2022–2nd fewest yards allowed per game at 82.5 yards).

SF: Defense Against the Pass: #6

2022 Games:

Week 20/Divisional Round:

O/U: 46.5; SF, –3.5; Actual-SF 19, DAL 12.

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: Prescott/12.44; Purdy/9.36.

RB: McCaffrey/17.7; Pollard/5.3; Elliott/5.3; Mitchell/5.1.

WR: Lamb/25.3; Samuel/9.6; Aiyuk/7.6; Jennings/7.6; Brown/4.1.

TE: Kittle/14.5; Schultz/13.7.

K: Gould/16; Maher/7.

D/ST: 49ers/11; Cowboys/5.

Perfect Lineup: Lamb, Schultz / McCaffrey, Kittle, 49ers D/ST, Gould

Thoughts:

Mitchell for SF and Hendershot for DAL have already been ruled out, so there are paths to lower salaried players receiving playing time here and potentially impacting the slate and builds. As always, check for last minute inactive players, but I do believe the few questionable players will end up playing. As far as thoughts on the slate itself, I think the 49ers should cover the 3.5 and I think the over is probably the play, but considering my season long mush status, considering building the complete opposite isn’t a terrible idea.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,800/Christian McCaffrey – Has scored a TD in 13 consecutive games dating back to last season. On the season, he is averaging 32.3 DK points per game on a line 24.5 touches, 125 yards from scrimmage, and 1.75 TDs. He has seen a touch on over 40% of the snaps he’s been in for this year. The Cowboys have allowed the fewest DK points this season to opposing RB units at 12.8 per game, but I’m not convinced they can slow him down enough to warrant not included in this section of the article.

$10,000/CeeDee Lamb – The 49ers have allowed the 3rd most receptions and 4th most targets to opposing WR units through 4 games this season. Additionally, they are allowing the 6th most targets to WRs lined up in the slot, where Lamb has been roughly 2/3rds of the time in the season’s first 4 games. Averaging 7.5 targets and 16.3 DK points per game thus far this season.

$9,600/Dak Prescott – Has scored at least 14.3 DK points and thrown for 249 yards in each of the last 3 games this season. The 49ers have allowed the 2nd fewest yards per pass attempt this season and that plays into the hands of suggesting lesser Dak usage, as he ranks 27th in pass attempts that have traveled 20 or more down field. However, he is averaging 8 pass attempts inside the 20-yard line through 4 games to lead the league, he is known threat to possibly run the ball, and most things that Lamb gets through the air, he is going to have his hands on, so I’ll run contrarian here and hope he breaks 20 DK points here for the first time all season.

$8,400/Brandon Aiyuk – Through 4 games this season, Aiyuk has almost a 30% target share while facing off against man coverage and during that same stretch Dallas has played man almost 50% of the time. The Cowboys’ loss of Trevon Diggs should only help in Aiyuk’s effort. Additionally, if Samuel isn’t quite 100% still, it only enhances the prospects of a better game. On the season thus far, he holds ranks of 2nd in yards per route run, 10th in average target depth, and 12th in air yards share. Has seen at least 6 targets in the 3 games he’s played this season and scored at least 23 DK points in 2 of them.

 

Moderate Usage:

$10,200/Tony Pollard – Through 4 games this season, he is averaging 17.3 DK points per game on an average line of 22 touches, 93 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD per game. Elite level usage which has rank 3rd in expected fantasy points this season; however, he has scored roughly 18% *fewer* than that. The bigger games should be on the horizon, especially with a league leading number of carries inside the 10-yard line. The 49ers have allowed the 11th fewest DK points to opposing RB units thus far this season at 18.3 points per game. The ceiling might be slightly lower here.

$9,400/Brock Purdy – The Cowboys have allowed the 2ndfewest DK points to opposing QBs thus far this season at 10.3 points per game and QBs have produced at a 2:7 TD/INT ratio. They were able to hold him to 9.3 points in the divisional game last year in the playoffs. Still, he has averaged 14.7 DK points in each of his 4 starts this season, ranks 2nd in the league in yards per pass attempt, and has too many offensive weapons to ignore.

$7,600/Deebo Samuel – Comes into the game ranked 2nd on the team in targets and air yards share. Averaged 8 targets per game in Weeks 1 and 2 with he and Aiyuk both healthy. There is still a question of how healthy he may be here, but it seems unlikely he goes without a target for the 2nd consecutive game, yet if unhealthy, perhaps he sees additional carries out of the backfield. Too many ways that he could produce to not use regardless of health.

$5,000/Jake Ferguson – Has seen 6 targets inside the 10-yard line through 4 games, which ties him for the league lead. You play him for the TD potential and his 18% target share; however, facing off against the 49ers that have allowed the 9th fewest DK points this season at 8.8 points per game, lowers the potential ceiling.

$4,400/Jake Moody – 11.3 DK points thus far this season on a 9/9 FG and 14/14 XP line through 4 games. The Cowboys have given up the 7th fewest DK points to opposing kickers this season. Probably the safest of the middle-priced options. Gould finished in the optimal in last year’s playoff win.

$4,200/Brandon Aubrey – Has scored double-digit DK points each of the 4 games played this season. 49ers have given up the 8th fewest DK points to opposing kickers this season. No reason to think he won’t be any less involved this week, especially in a potential shootout or in a tighter game if points suddenly became an issue.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$6,400/Greg Kittle – With the Cowboys having allowed 0 TDs and an average 9.1 DK points to opposing TE units through 4 games, not sure that there is as massive game for Kittle on the horizon here. Sports an 18% target rate so far this season but seems to be perhaps the 4th option in this offense having scored double-digit DK points just once so far this season.

$4,600/Michael Gallup – Has yet to score a TD but comes in having scored double-digit DK points in each of last 2 games. Thus far through 4 games, is tied for 3rd on the team in targets, has run a route on roughly 3/4ths of drop backs, and has an air yards share of just under 19%. The 49ers have allowed the 11thmost DK points to opposing WR units through 4 games at 39.7 points per game.  

$4,000/49ers D/ST – Through 4 games this season, the 49ers D/ST has intercepted 5 passes while allowing 4 TDs. Through 4 games, they have held opponents to just 14.5 points per game. The Cowboys have held opposing D/ST units to the 2nd fewest DK points per game. Will be interesting to see if the 49ers can do anything against the Cowboys OL as they may as healthy now as they have been all season so far.

$3,400/Cowboys D/ST – The unit has produced 15 or more DK points in 3 of the 4 games to start the season. Facing off against the 49ers that have allowed the fewest points to opposing D/STs to start the season. Still, with an average of 1 TD, 1.7 INT, 3.5 Sacks, and 0.75 DFRs through 4 games, there are too many ways to score here, and Purdy should lose a start eventually, right? Not suggesting it is this game, but if he were to lose here, the D/ST unit will have scored somehow.

$1,800/Jordan Mason – With Mitchell ruled out early, Mason should operate as the RB2 for the game. Cowboys have allowed the fewest DK points to opposing RB units at 12.8 points per game. Not sure that he will see enough work to return enough value without a TD.

$1,600/Jalen Tolbert – 6th on the team in targets through the first 4 games. Not sure he can duplicate the 4/53 on 4 target line from the Patriots game in Week 4, but with Brandin Cooks having underwhelmed so far, perhaps there are more to come.

$200/Luke Schoonmaker – With Hendershot ruled out early, those looks, and that playing time is here for Schoonmaker’s taking. The 49ers have given up the 9th fewest DK points thus far this season to the position at 8.8 points per game.

$200/Ray Ray McCloud III – As it looks like Jennings is healthy, the serious upside is gone, but there could still be some here. Seems to be healthy after recovering from offseason wrist surgery. Played 40% of the snaps in Week 3 and operated more in the slot last week in Week 4 with Aiyuk out catching 2 passes for 22 yards. Listed as the WR4, on the depth chart coming in,there should still be 1 or 2 potential targets out there for him as well as some return work, combined of which should leave him worthy of minor consideration in your player pool.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: McCaffrey, Purdy, Aiyuk, Moody / Ferguson, Aubrey

C: McCaffrey, Purdy, Aiyuk / Lamb, Aubrey, Schoonmaker

C: Lamb, Ferguson, Aubrey / McCaffrey, Purdy, Moody

C: Lamb, Pollard, Aubrey, Schoonmaker / McCaffrey, Aiyuk

C: Prescott, Aubrey, Cowboys D/ST / McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel

C: Prescott, Lamb, Aubrey / McCaffrey, Aiyuk, McCloud III

C: Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Purdy / Lamb, Aubrey, Tolbert

C: Aiyuk, McCaffrey, Purdy, Samuel, Moody / Aubrey

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)