Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 11: PHI @ KC

Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 11: PHI @ KC

Lines:

O/U: 45.5

Chiefs, –2.5

2023 DVOA:

PHI: Defense Against the Run: #2 (2023–1st fewest yards allowed per game at 66.3 yards; 2022–16th fewest yards allowed per game at 121.3 yards).

PHI: Defense Against the Pass: #22

KC: Defense Against the Run: #20 (2023–16th most yards allowed per game at 112.2 yards; 2022–8th fewest yards allowed per game at 107.7 yards).

KC: Defense Against the Pass: #3

2022 Games:

Week 22/The Super Bowl:

O/U: 51.5; PHI, -1; Actual-KC 38, PHI 35.

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: Hurts/45.16; Mahomes/23.68.

RB: Pacheco/13.6; Gainwell/8.1; McKinnon/7.9.

WR: A.J. Brown/21.6; D. Smith/20; J. Smith-Schuster/12.3.

TE: Kelce/20.1; Goedert/12.

K: Elliott/9; Butker/8.

D/ST: KC/6.

Perfect Lineup: Hurts, A.J. Brown, Smith, Pascal / Mahomes, Chiefs D/ST

Thoughts:

With Andy Reid coming into the game with a 21-3 straight-up record off a bye in his career, I like the Chiefs chances here in the game. Both teams’ defensive weaknesses should dictate a run-heavy approach from the Eagles and more of a pass-centric attack from Kansas City. The Eagles’ defense isn’t as stout as it was last year, while one could argue that the KC defense is even better than last season. The Chiefs rank inside the Top 5 on offense and defense in yards per play, while the Eagles rank 11thand 19th. Sack rate may be another interesting pointer for the game. The Chiefs defense currently holds the 2nd best sack rate in the league while their offense is allowing the fewest sacks so far this season. I’ll take the over here and believe KC covers at home, 28-24.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,200/Patrick Mahomes – With the Eagles allowing the 5thhighest passing TD rate and the 4th most DK points to opposing QBs at 21.9 points per game, this has been a great spot for most opposing QBs this season. As almost 80% of the yardage against the Eagles has come via the pass and Mahomes has scored more than 20 DK points in 5 of 8 games this season, I would expect Mahomes to do everything he can offensively, via his arm or his legs, to make sure that the Chiefs don’t lose this game and therefore, I’m expecting him to surpass his 23.68 DK point effort from the Super Bowl.

$11,000/Jalen Hurts – He ran for 3 TDs against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl last year, so he’s certainly capable of owning the slate with or without help again here. He’s thrown multiple TD passes in 3 straight and run for a TD himself in 2 of the last 3. However, the Chiefs’ D has allowed the 6th lowest completion rate, 3rd fewest yards per attempt, and 3rd fewest DK points at 14.3 points per game so far this season. Hurts has eclipsed 21.9 DK points in each of his last 8 games and his combination of upside and ways to produce should ensure that he makes it 9 straight games.

$10,200/A.J. Brown – With 125 yards receiving in 6 of his 7 games and a TD reception in 3 straight, Brown feels like someone you can’t ignore, even as the Chiefs have done a good job of shutting down WR1s on the season. The Chiefs’ Defense is using blitz and man coverage at the 6th highest rates in the league this season and versus both, Brown has at target share of greater than 40%. Having met or exceeded 19.5 DK points in 7 straight games, he seems likely to find a way to make it 8 straight before the night is over.

$10,000/Travis Kelce – Kelce leads all TEs in the league in targets and yards per routes run. Coming in off a 4.4 DK point effort on a 3/14 line off 4 targets where the Dolphins decided not to let Kelce beat them, I would expect a huge rebound effort here. Kelce produced a 6/81/1 line off 6 targets in the Super Bowl for 20.1 DK points. The Eagles are allowing the 11th most DK points to opposing TE units coming into the game at 13.0 points per game.

 

Moderate Usage:

$8,400/D’Andre Swift – Since taking over lead back duties in Week 2, Swift has averaged 16.9 DK points on a line of 20.3 touches and 97.1 yards from scrimmage per game. With the Chiefs allowing the 6th most yards per carry, Swift’s success this week may ultimately be determined by how successful he is more as a runner versus a pass catcher. He is an option that that they didn’t have in the Super Bowl outside of Hurts and I would think he’d be a key piece this week.

$7,200/Isiah Pacheco – With 8 games of 70 or fewer yards on the ground, you’re not playing Pacheco for his running ability here against the Eagles elite run defense. Still, he paced the team in the Super Bowl last year with his 15/76/1 line on the ground and that is probably a ceiling type of outlook for him here. I’m more intrigued by his pass catching ability as the Eagles are allowing opposing RBs 5 receptions a game and Pacheco is averaging 3 targets per game from Mahomes and that could be something sorely needed here.

$2,400/Justin Watson – Ran the most routes of any WR last week and paced the team with 5 targets, but still only produced a 2/15 line. Appeals as both a deep ball threat for the Chiefs as well as potential slot option as he lines up in that position around 30% of the time. The Eagles come into the game having allowed the most DK points to opposing WRs at 49.6 points per game. Chiefs WR roulette will ultimately come down to which one(s) end up with a TD as far as I’m concerned and I much prefer the cheaper stabs here, but I couldn’t fault anyone for paying up for Rice as he is slowly becoming a preferred option for Mahomes.

$1,800/Noah Gray – Having seen multiple targets in 8 of 9 games this season and with the Eagles having allowed a TD to an opposing TE in consecutive games, Gray probably is more touchdown dependent at a 4-figure salary, but he could easily get it here.

$1,200/Olamide Zaccheaus – With 3 of his last 4 games with multiple targets before the break and now with Goedert out, I would expect an uptick in that number here. As the WR3 here in this offense and one that excels at deep balls, the Eagles were successful in the Super Bowl on a few of them and perhaps Zaccheaus may be one of the beneficiaries this go round.

$400/Albert Okwuegbunam – One of the TEs is likely to do a little something here, but with Stoll almost $3,000 more than the other two, I’ll take a pass outside of a dart throw lineup. Of the known commodities, I think Calcaterra is an interesting dart throw and I’ll have some limited exposure for sure. However, I am most intrigued to see what Okwuegbunam can do here if he gets much playing time. I expect all 3 TEs to see an even split of snaps here and with KC allowing just 9.6 DK points to opposing TEs here, the ceiling isn’t very high but certainly works as a piece in a heavy stars/scrubs build should you elect to go that route.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$9,000/DeVonta Smith – In 5 games without Goedert last year, Smith averaged 1+ target more and 20+ more receiving yards. Could the same hold true here? Brown and Smith were both elite in the Super Bowl, each producing more than 95 receiving yards. He has caught a TD pass in consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 1-2. Coming into the game, the Chiefs had allowed the 6th fewest receptions, 6th fewest yards, and 9thfewest DK points at 30.8 points per game. With Smith averaging almost 3.5 fewer targets per game this season compared to Brown, Smith feels like to disappoint, unless he catches a TD here.

$5,200/Jake Elliott – He has 6 games of at least 10 DK points this season; however, 3 of his last 4 have resulted in a combined 13 total points. The Chiefs are allowing the fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. Scored 9 points in the Super Bowl on 3 XPs and 2 FGs. With the Chiefs defense arguably tougher this go-round, seeing more FGs attempted here wouldn’t come as a shock. This doesn’t feel like a double-digit game for him, but a high single digit total feels likely again and perhaps that’s enough to get the job done with your lines?

$5,000/Harrison Butker – He has 5 games of at least 10 DK points; however, 2 of his last 3 have resulted in a combined 10 total points. The Eagles are allowing the 3rd fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. Scored 8 points in the Super Bowl on 5 XPs and 1 FG. Like Elliott, this doesn’t feel like a double-digit game for him, but a high single digit total feels likely again. I do think he could better his 2 FG attempts from the Super Bowl.

$4,400/Kenneth Gainwell – Gainwell caught my eye a little, especially with a rushing TD in 2 of his last 3 games. He hasn’t produced more than 27 yards from scrimmage since Week 3 which probably limits the upside here. Still, he’s averaged 6 touches over his last 6 games and the Chiefs are allowing 11thfewest DK points to opposing RB units so far this season at 18.5 points per game on 23 touches per game, based on Swift’s season averages, that should leave Gainwell enough room to produce here.

$4,000/Eagles D/ST – The Chiefs have allowed the 16th most DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. While the Eagles don’t quite have the defensive firepower they had last year, the unit is still averaging 7.6 DK points per game. The unit is elite against the run averaging a league 66.3 yards per game, so the way to consider beating them this year is through the air, but with Slay and Bradberry back manning the perimeter, they are still capable of causing KC some trouble and scoring points.

$3,800/Chiefs D/ST – Over the last 4 games, the Chiefs D/ST has averaged 11.5 DK points while holding opponents to 15.8 points per game with an average of 1 INT and 4.5 sacks in that stretch. The odds don’t favor them doing that to the Eagles as they still have plenty of offensive weapons and the Eagles are allowing the 6th fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. However, KC has more defensive weapons compared to last year and they produced 6 points in the Super Bowl, a bigger potential effort here shouldn’t surprise.

$3,400/Sky Moore – The appeal with Moore comes with the salary and the fact he’s seen at least 3 targets in each of his last 4 games. It’s a tough matchup for him as most of the work is likely to be on the outside and he’s coming into the game off his few routes run of the season. I worry about Hardman cutting into his work load a bit further here as he continues to get reacclimated after the bye week, but I don’t think Moore is entirely going away, at least not this week.

$3,200/Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Having seen multiple targets in 8 of 9 games this season might seem like a good thing, but when you see that he’s only scored in double-digit DK points once this season and remember that the Chiefs run one of the deepest WR corps in the league, your expectations should be tempered a little. He’s more likely to line up on the perimeter and face off against Bradbury which is a tough matchup; however, he does lineup in the slot around 30% of the time and the Eagles are giving up an average of 16.8 DK points to slot WRs so far this season and at this salary, MVS could quietly prove helpful this week.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Mahomes, Pacheco, MVS, Gray / Hurts, Brown

C: Mahomes, Kelce / Hurts, Brown, Zaccheaus, Okwuegbunam

C: Hurts, Brown, Okwuegbunam / Mahomes, Pacheco, Chiefs D/ST

C: Hurts, Brown, Swift, Okwuegbunam / Mahomes, MVS

C: Brown, Hurts / Mahomes, Pacheco, Watson, Gray

C: Brown, Hurts, Swift, Zaccheaus / Mahomes, Watson

C: Kelce, Mahomes / Hurts, Swift, Eagles D/ST, Okwuegbunam

C: Kelce, Mahomes, Hardman, Jr. / Hurts, Swift, Zaccheaus

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)