Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 13: CIN @ JAX

Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 13: CIN @ JAX

Lines:

O/U: 40.0

Jaguars, -9.5

2023 DVOA:

CIN: Defense Against the Run: #29 (2023–4th most yards allowed per game at 139.6 yards; 2022–5th fewest yards allowed per game at 103.5 yards).

CIN: Defense Against the Pass: #19

JAX: Defense Against the Run: #1 (2023–4th fewest yards allowed per game at 87.4 yards; 2022–12th fewest yards allowed per game at 113.8 yards).

JAX: Defense Against the Pass: #8

Thoughts:

I think Browning should be better here in his 2nd start especially with Tee Higgins likely to return here. The Bengals Defense has been a bit of dumpster fire of late, but with the Jags prone to occasional offensive lulls, the game feels like another under waiting to hit. The real question is how close the Bengals can keep the game, for a while, I believe that answer is close; however, in the end, I think the Jags cover. I’ll call it 27-13, Jags.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$10,800/Trevor Lawrence – The most consistent of the Jags options as he has scored at least 15 DK points in 9 of 11 games so far this season. Has scored 28 DK points in each of his last 2 games with at least 2 TDs in each. With the Bengals have allowed the 10th most DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 19.1 points per game and an average of 1 passing TD per game, Lawrence should be sitting up another big effort, especially when considering the additional points, he could score with his legs.

$10,200/Travis Etienne, Jr. – Whether he plays part or all the game, you’re starting Etienne in bunches because the Bengals are allowing 2.42 yards before contact per rush attempt as well as rushes against them to gain 10+ yards at a rate of 1 in 7 against them, with both rates being the worst in the league. Etienne scored at least 15 DK points in 6 of the season’s first 8 games but has missed that mark in each of his last 3 games. With the Bengals allowing 0.91 TDs per game to opposing RBs so far this season, Etienne seems likely to eclipse 15 DK points in this outing.

$8,800/Jake Browning – With Browning having played a game and a half now, you can begin to see what he can do and so far, he hasn’t had a full complement of WRs. The Jaguars come in one of the tougher run defenses in the league. In his first game last week against the Steelers, the Bengals offense was on the field for just 40 plays. In those 40 plays, Browning still produced a 13 DK point effort, primarily on 224 passing yards. The Jaguars so far this season have allowed the 3rd most DK points to opposing QBs at 22.5 points per game. The WRs have the more explosive ceilings here, but I’ll opt for the sturdier floor of Browning in case in terms into more of a spread it around type of situation.

$6,200/Evan Engram – 64/524/0 on 82 targets. Will this be the game that Engram gets his first TD of the season? Yes, I think so. And if correct, he absolutely belongs in this group. There is a great chance that he might be the only healthy TE for this game. Strange seems to be trending the wrong way on the injury chart. Farrell came off a season best game last week, but depending on the severity of that toe injury, they may cautiously hold him out because they probably don’t need him. The Bengals have given up the 2nd most DK points to opposing TE units at 16.1 points per game. In addition, they have given up the 11th most TDs and 2ndmost receiving yards to the position. With Engram running a route on 89% of drop backs this season and having scored at least 9 DK points in 8 games this season, the chances of Engram turning in one of his best games of the season here loom large.

 

Moderate Usage:

$9,400/Ja’Marr Chase – I think the downgrade from Burrow to Browning hurts Chase most of the Bengals skill position players, but even in a tough matchup last week he still produced a 4/81 line on 6 targets. The return of Higgins should improve his outlook a bit here. With the Jaguars defense playing zone coverage slightly more than 2/3rds of the time, Chase holds a 30% target share on the season, if Browning gets him the ball in similar fashion, he should see plenty of targets and be able to do somethings with a few of them.

$8,200/Christian Kirk – Admittedly, I prefer Ridley a bit more than Kirk and that’s recency bias based. However, based on how I feel about the other primary Jaguars options here, I’ve elected to lean a bit more on Kirk primarily due to the salary savings, his status as the most targeted player on the team this season and his consistency of 75 yards and/or a TD in 8 of his last 10 games.

$7,000/Joe Mixon – The good news is that Mixon has scored at least 17.5 DK points in 3 of his last 5 games. The bad news is that Mixon has exceeded 100 total yards from scrimmage in just 2 games this season and is facing the Jaguars who are allowing the 16th fewest DK points to opposing RBs so far this season at 20.5 points per game. All is not lost though as the Jaguars have allowed the most targets, most receptions, and 2nd most receiving yards to opposing backfields so far this season. As most of Browning’s passes last week were of the shorter target depth variety, Mixon could be heavily featured as a pass catcher this week.

$5,000/Brandon McManus – Has scored at least 8 DK points in 8 of 11 games, including double-digit tallies in 3 of his last 4. The Bengals are allowing the 11th most DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. As a home touchdown favorite, there should be plenty of opportunities for McManus to score well here.

$4,800/Jaguars D/ST – The Jaguars defense scored at least 8 DK points in 6 of the season’s first 8 games and has missed that mark in their last 3. The Bengals have allowed opposing D/STs to score the 11th fewest DK points so far this season. With no Burrow to contend with, by game’s end, I would expect the unit to have forced Browning into at least one turnover (even though they themselves have not produced an INT in their last 3 games), as they do have 3 games with multiple DFRs and have recorded multiple sacks in 5 of their last 6 games.

$3,200/Bengals D/ST – With 19 total DK points over their last 4 games and plenty of signs of giving up big plays across the season, it might be crazy to consider using them. The Jaguars have given up the 12th most DK points to opposing D/ST so far this season and the unit themselves has scored at least 9 DK points in 4 games this season. The ceiling is most definitely capped here, but the price and floor make an attractive floor for points in case the cheaper CIN dart throw options don’t appeal.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$9,200/Calvin Ridley – The Bengals are allowing the 16th most DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 34.4 points per game. Ridley is averaging 18.58 DK points per game over his last 4 games on a line of 5/73.8/0.75 on 7 targets. The Bengals are allowing 10 yards per target to opposing perimeter WRs so far this season. Ridley dominates the targets inside the 10-yard-line for the team at better than 45%, the best mark in the league.

$5,600/Tyler Boyd – The Jaguars have allowed the 4th most TDs and the 9th most DK points to opposing WRs so far this season at 38.6 points per game. Boyd has seen 5 targets in each of the last 2 games but with a miniscule average target depth, he wasn’t able to do anything with them. He does have 2 TDs on the season and Higgins return should help his outlook. As a road underdog, the Bengals should have to throw on the Jaguars and if the coaching staff opens the playbook a bit and allows Browning to do just that, all the Bengals WRs should benefit. Being Higgins first game back and largely underwhelming on the season, the $2,000 savings with Boyd seems a safer option to get exposure to that passing game.

$5,200/Zay Jones – Has seen multiple targets in each of his last 2 games since his return from injury, but I’m not sure he’s quite all the way back yet. Still ranks 5th on the team in targets this season with multiple games missed and does have 2 receiving TDs. Feels like he’s maybe the 4th option at best this week and heavily touchdown dependent.

$4,600/Evan McPherson – Has scored at least 9 DK points in 5 games this season, but 3 of those have occurred in the team’s last 5 games. The Jaguars have allowed the 2nd fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season, but should the offense continue to sputter a bit with Browning a bit, McPherson becomes a more viable and safer option for points.

$1,200/Drew Sample – If the Bengals continue to use multiple TE sets this week in a similar fashion to last week, you’re going to want exposure to some of the TEs. I can’t imagine any of the yardage totals being great, you’re hoping for the TD with the dart throw. Sample’s line from last week was 1/11/1 on 1 target. The Jaguars have allowed the 11th most DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 12.7 points per game.

$1,000/Irv Smith, Jr. – If the Bengals continue to use multiple TE sets this week in a similar fashion to last week, you’re going to want exposure to some of the TEs. I can’t imagine any of the yardage totals being great, you’re hoping for the TD with the dart throw. Smith’s line from last week was 2/8/0 on 2 targets. The biggest difference between this week and last week is that he’s $1,800 cheaper. The Jaguars have allowed the 11th most DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 12.7 points per game.

$400/Trayveon Williams – Didn’t see a rush or a target in last week’s game. I am attributing that to the game flow and believe that won’t happen 2 games in a row. Williams hasn’t done much this season, but should Mixon need a rest, Williams seems likely to spell. Dart throw punt more than anything else as he fits nicely to various stars/scrubs builds.

$200/Tim Jones – If Strange was healthier or in fact is active, I might consider playing him instead, but since I believe he won’t be, I’m looking at other Jaguars punt play type options. Jones has multiple targets in 3 games this season. Low floor/Low ceiling but should the game turn into a blowout, he could see more playing time than you’d expect.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Lawrence, Etienne, Engram / Chase, Mixon, Smith

C: Lawrence, Etienne, Engram / Browning, Mixon, Sample

C: Etienne, Lawrence, Engram / Chase, Mixon, Sample

C: Etienne, Lawrence, Engram, McManus, Jaguars D/ST / Mixon

C: Browning, Sample / Lawrence, Etienne, Engram, Kirk

C: Browning, Chase / Lawrence, Engram, McManus, Jaguars D/ST

C: Engram, Lawrence, Etienne / Chase, Mixon, Bengals D/ST

C: Engram, Lawrence, Kirk, McManus / Chase, Mixon

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)