The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 13

Week 12 came and went and wow, what a total disaster for me. There are always a few tough weeks each season, but I have not been so frustrated in any given week of NFL DFS in the last 5 years or so with how everything played out. I missed on every close decision and both lineups I pivoted off of would have been winners on both sites.

On DraftKings, I allowed myself to get suckered into the Panthers. I gave myself the extra week to see Cam Newton back as a starter and thought he passed with flying colors against Washington the previous week only to be reminded that he is complete garbage as QB and has been for quite some time. He will likely have some flashes of brilliance as a gimmicky goal line runner, but his value is really limited, especially when he needs to throw that ball. We did not need much from him at his price and he scored a rushing TD early so I thought I was in okay shape, but then Christian McCaffrey went down with an ankle injury (again) and it was over from there. I really only considered three options at QQ: Cam, Tyrod Taylor or Tom Brady. Tyrod put up reasonable numbers, but Brady did nothing for me over of FD despite the Bucs putting up a lot of points as it turned into Leonard Fournette Day against what was supposed to be a strong run defense.

At RB, CMC was a massive disappointment. I really agonized over the decision of whether to use him or not. After two weeks of strong play in coming back from injury, I thought he was positioned for a big game on the road against Miami although I hated the price. My worry was that I knew things were trending towards him being 60-70% owned in cash games on DK which put a lot of pressure on me to use him and find pivots at other positions. He is capable of massive ceiling performances. If I thought he would be 20-30% owned, then a fade would have been really easy as I would not be dead if he broke the slate. However, in a situation where his ownership is overwhelmingly high, you are really playing with fire if you elect to fade him. I am irritated with myself here as I had another team that I worked on with Erik (Stat Boy) leading up to the game that I shared in Slack as my ‘Fade CMC’ squad that did really well and cashed easily, but once I made the move to go with him, it set me on a path that I could not comeback from.

My other RB on DK was Miles Sanders. Here is player that I absolutely NEVER use that I wound up starting last week. He impressed me against the Saints the week prior with his 17 touches and with Jordan Howard out and a juicy match up with the Giants, I thought the floor would be at least a little better than the previous week. Nope. It turned into the Boston Scott show and then Sanders left with an ankle injury and a very disappointing, but not unpredictable stat line. He seemed right for the price and potential role in the game, but Philly has become the Patriots of the NFC in terms of playing mind games with fantasy owners. NEVER AGAIN!!!

At WR on DK, I really liked the players that I used in Godwin, Diontae and Pittman. I had a feeling that the Colts and Bucs would put up some points, but was disappointed that Pittman could not generate more points. He did get 10 targets so had I known that number prior to the game, I would have been thrilled. He just could not convert them into much. Godwin was a massive disappointment. As I mentioned above, it was a Lenny day to the extreme. It is not that it was a surprise to see Lenny put up some points, but 4 TDs? Yikes. It felt like a harder punch in the face with each successive TD. Godwin going 4/24 was never something I would have imagined. Amusingly enough, Mike Evans did not fare any better. Diontae was the only WR that produced for me as he continues to be a target monster in Pittsburgh. If only he could get to 100 yards or find the end zone he’d really be putting up some massive numbers. The other WR I used on FD was Keenan Allen. He was too cheap on FD and though he only caught 7 passes for 85 yards on 10 targets, his role on offense and use is very predictable from week to week which makes him a reliable cash game play, especially at that price on FD.

At TE, Gronk was the play at TE and you could see once again why Brady needs him in the lineup. He eats up passes in the middle of the field and is still a bull to try to bring down after the catch. He’s a big, athletic pass catcher in the red zone as well which gives Brady options when Lenny is not gobbling up everything on the ground. On FD, Pat Freiermuth made more sense just based on the really low price and Ebron injury. He salvaged his day with a late, garbage time TD and continues to be a Big Ben favorite near the end zone.

My flex plays were hit and miss. On FD, I used Myles Gaskin who was once again way too cheap and he rewarded me with a couple of TDs. On DK, I let myself get suckered into Laviska Shennault and got his typical game of 5 catches for 33 yards…yeah… The worst part of the Shennauly effort was that I was just short on funds to be able to get Dontrell Hilliard (4600) into the flex and he had a huge day against the Pats rushing for over 100 yards and a TD. Ouch. I knew the release of Adrian Peterson would be meaningful for his playing time, but I just could not get there with the salary cap so missed out.

Defense was really straightforward. The Texans at home against the Jets for 2300 was the obvious play and they were chalky. I was hoping for a little more out of them, but when you pay the little and get 6 points, you cannot complain too much. The Bengals were the obvious punt on FD and they routed the Steelers. Outside of a late, meaningless TD pass, they owned Big Ben all day and even scored a defensive TD.

Sadly, I made a late, last minute swap on FD that took me out of the money. I initially had Herbert at QB over Brady and Samuel at WR over Godwin. I started to worry about how the Chargers would perform in Denver as it is a place where a team like the Chargers can come in and lay an egg, which is more or less what happened. Now, Herbert did get his numbers going over 300 yards and getting a garbage time TD pass with just a few minutes to play to end up with respectable looking fantasy numbers. I just never would have thought that Brady would not at least match him. The Bucs were playing against a highly ranked run defense that was mediocre against the pass, indoors in the highest point total game of the week. Moving up to Brady cost me $400 which I then needed to find at another position which ended up being WR where I dropped from Samuel to Godwin. Samuel did almost nothing catching the ball, but again dominated on the ground with two rushing TDs while Godwin was a total non-factor. It was excruciating to watch as I made bad late calls on both sites that took me out of the money. With the Vikings losing in miserable fashion in a key game with the 49ers, it was the least fun I have had on a Sunday all season.

I think I learned a few things last week. First, I do not need to trust players like Cam Newton even if they are going to be chalk. There were other punt options like Taylor who had an even better matchup. With a game where our man in Slack ‘ruxin’ reminded me that the point total was only 40, I could have gotten away from it, especially given the way Miami had just shut down a similar team in the Ravens at home just a couple of weeks prior to the Panthers game. As for CMC, I still don’t hate the play. It really felt like he had a 20 point floor last week, though he is now so fragile that we have to start accepting the fact that he is not going to finish games and that missing time is just a part of who he will be in the years ahead. It’s funny over the years I went from saying that the Panthers reached on him in the 1st round, to telling Jeff that he was just a change of pace RB while Jeff argued that he was a star, to eating my words in 2018/2019 to finally feeling vindicated the last two seasons. He’s not nearly being enough to handle the Derrick Henry battering ram role and the longer the Panthers try to get that out of him, the more often you will be seeing him in the blue tent on the sidelines.

Other regrets…Miles Sanders. In cash games, you really want to avoid guessing what a player’s role will be on a team like the Eagles. I knew they had two other backs, but thought that Jordan Howard being hurt would definitely shift touches to Sanders, a guy that NEVER sees much for volume even when he was the RB1 earlier in his career. I should have worked to get Eli Mitchell into my lineup as I knew the 49ers would run roughshod over the depleted defensive line of the Vikings. Sometimes you need to believe your eyes instead of the hype, which is all that Sanders was last week.

It was a very bitter defeat for me last week and ended a nice three week win streak. It was frustrating, but an important learning experience for me and I’ll do my best to get better going into Week 13!

To read the entire article, become a premium member of Football Insider Edge by clicking here, or on the JOIN NOW button on the homepage