Monday Night Classic Slate – Regular Season, Week 7: BAL @ TB, LAC @ ARI

Monday Night Classic Slate – Regular Season, Week 7: BAL @ TB, LAC @ ARI

Lines:

O/U: 50.0

Ravens, -2.5

 

O/U: 44.0

Chargers, -1.0

 

2024 DVOA:

 

BAL: Defense Against the Run: #4 (2023-12^th fewest yards allowed per game at 104.6 yards; 2024-1^st fewest yards allowed per game at 59.0 yards).

BAL: Defense Against the Pass: #18

 

TB: Defense Against the Run: #11 (2023-4^th fewest yards allowed per game at 93.5 yards; 2024-12^th fewest yards allowed per game at 113.3 yards).

TB: Defense Against the Pass: #9

 

LAC: Defense Against the Run: #7 (2023-16th most yards allowed per game at 113.2 yards; 2024-6^th fewest yards allowed per game at 97.2 yards).

LAC: Defense Against the Pass: #4

 

ARI: Defense Against the Run: #15 (2023-1st most yards allowed per game at 143.2 yards; 2024-4th most yards allowed per game at 153.0 yards).

ARI: Defense Against the Pass: #28

 

Players by Position:

QBs: You cannot get everybody at least at this position, no matter how hard you try. Herbert looks to be the least attractive option of the 4 on the slate, but I could not blame you if you had some light exposure in a contrarian stance. It would be hard to leave Lamar out of your player pool. The question that I am still wrestling with is whether to use 2 or 3 QBs here. As of Monday Morning, I am likely to just use 2, but if I pivot before lock to 3, it is likely to be in a 40/30/25 type of split.

1. $8,000/Lamar Jackson – Has scored at least 17.4 DK points in every game this season, while averaging 26.2 DK points. Additionally, he has generated 322 yards of offense and an average of 2 TDs per game, via the air or ground, through the season’s first 6 games. Ranks 5^th in the league against the blitz so far this season, which he is likely to face here in bunches against the Bucs’ blitz-centric defensive approach. The Bucs have allowed the 2^nd most DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 21.1 points per game.
2. $6,500/Kyler Murray – The Chargers have allowed the 6^th fewest DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 14.4 points per game. I would say that they have not faced a QB as dynamic as Murray yet apart from Mahomes. Murray has scored double digits in every game this season and is currently averaging 17.9 DK points per game from an average line of 19-28 for 197 yards through the air, on a 1.3/.3 TD:INT ratio, with an additional 5/43 coming on the ground.

RBs: Every team has a running back that should interest you, but I think they each produce a question or two and have cheaper options behind them could surprise in the right circumstances. Pick your poison and spread.

1. $8,000/Derrick Henry – Averaging 24.1 DK points per game so far this season from an average line of 20 touches, 125.5 yards from scrimmage, and 15 TDs per game. Has scored no less than 16.6 DK points in each of the last 5 games. Hill is getting the routes from the position, but Henry is getting the carries. The Bucs are allowing the 14^th most DK points to opposing RB units so far this season at 23.6 points per game. Might not get 20 points in this one but feels like a lock for 18 or more and in that case, he should still be an overweight own.
2. $6,600/James Conner – With volume creates opportunity and Conner is averaging 17 touches, 81.8 yards from scrimmage and 14.7 DK points per game so far this season. If the game turns into more of an offensive struggle/defensive-type of game, Conner could easily surpass 20+ touches in this game and find his way to his 4^th 100+ yards-from-scrimmage game of the season.
3. $6,400/J.K. Dobbins – With his chief competition in Edwards on the IR, Dobbins has seen 70%+ of the running snaps over each of the last 3 games, while averaging 11.9 DK points during that stretch. With the offense averaging just 18.2 points per game, I remain skeptical of a 20+ game here, especially with Herbert and the OL looking healthier, but the Cardinals are allowing the 3^rd most rushing attempts, 2^nd most rushing yards, and 10^th most DK points to opposing RB units so far this season at 25.1 points per game.
4. Buccaneers Running Backs: Coaching staff has said that all 3 will play and they will ride the hot hand. There is volatility here, especially with the Ravens allowing the 4^th fewest DK points so far this season to opposing RB units at 16.7 points per game. I am not sure that I really want any exposure at these tags, but…
   1. $5,900/Bucky Irving – If I had to pick one to own, it is a blindfolded stab of Irving. I am reminded how the running game was an afterthought in the game against Detroit and as the game wears on, I suspect the same thing will occur here. Still, Irving has scored 11 DK points or better in 3 of his last 4 games and has seen 9 carries in 5 of 6 games.
   2. $5,700/Rachaad White – A speculative guess that he may not get as many carries as perhaps Irving and Tucker, but he may still get his in the end as the Ravens have allowed the 8^th most receiving yards to opposing RBs so far this season.Averaged 9.5 DK points over the last 3 games he played.
   3. $5,000/Sean Tucker – Had been the 3^rd wheel so far, but with White out last week, Tucker took advantage of a wild and weird game against the Saints to produced 192 yards from scrimmage and 2 TDs from 17 touches. He is the least likely of the 3 to achieve double-digit points here.

WRs: Not entirely convinced that there is a must play receiver on the slate. There are perhaps 2 or 3 that you should go overweight on, but I think at some point salary concerns will surface and you may end up having to spread around to make some of your lines work. With that in mind, I have taken a more team-centric approach for the position.

1. Buccaneers WRs – For as good as the Ravens have been against the run, they have been trashy thus far against opposing WR units, having allowed the 2^nd most DK points to the position at 44.2 points per game from an average line of 14/187/1.67.
   1. $7,400/Chris Godwin – Has seen 8 or more targets in 5 of 6 games and has scored 17+ points in 4 of 6 games.
   2. $7,300/Mike Evans – A true boom or bust proposition this season as he has scored 23 DK points in 3 of 6 games and 7 or fewer in the other 3 games. I think he may split the difference here as he may be less than 100% in coming in, but the Ravens rank in the bottom 10 in the league thus far in targets and yards to outside perimeter WRs.
   3. $3,500/Jalen McMillan – Worked his way back from a hamstring injury last week and played sparingly, could exploit his speed in certain packages to the outside here against the Ravens and seems likely to see more run here if Evans is slowed at all.
2. Ravens WRs – The Bucs are allowing the 6^th most DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 39.0 points per game from an average line of 15/164/1.0.
   1. $6,700/Zay Flowers – With a 25% target share in 5 of 6 games this season and the likely outlook not getting to face CB/Dean should mean that Flowers is likely to make it 6 of 7 games. Heads into this week’s game off a career high 132 receiving yards and has scored 20+ DK points in 3 of 6 games this season.
   2. $4,300/Rashod Bateman – With the Bucs ranking in the bottom 10 in the league thus far in targets and yards to outside perimeter WRs, I am a huge fan of Bateman’s outlook here. Better than 4 of 5 catches he has made this season have gone for a 1^st down or a TD. Has scored in double-digit DK points in 3 of the last 4 games. During blitz packages this season, Lamar has found Bateman better than a 1 in 6 rate. I suspect he finds double-digit points again this week.
3. Cardinals WR’s – The Chargers are allowing the 5^th fewest DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 26.6 points per game. With no Samuel and Taylor in the secondary, the outlook for the passing game could be improved.
   1. $7,000/Marvin Harrison, Jr. – Has scored 15+ DK points in 3 of 6 games this season. At this salary and coming back from the concussion, I would rather have exposure to Flowers or one of the Bucs WRs, especially Wilson $2,300 cheaper. Likely underweight.
   2. $4,700/Michael Wilson – Tough matchup on paper as the Chargers rank in the Top 10 in both targets and yards to outside perimeter WRs, but the outlook is improved with both Samuel and Taylor not playing here. Wilson has scored double-digit DK points in 3 of the team’s last 4 games. Chargers are running zone coverage at the league’s second highest rate and Wilson has caught 2/3rds of his receptions this year when facing zone coverage.
   3. $4,500/Zay Jones – Have no idea what kind of impact he will make on his season debut, but I believe he will see plenty of playing time here and give Murray an extra weapon that he could sorely use in this game. Likely underweight, but I still want exposure, even if it is a bust.
4. Chargers WRs – The Cardinals have allowed the 8^th most DK points to opposing WRs so far this season at 36.8 points per game, from an average line of 13/156/1.33 per game. The target tree through the receiver room so far this season has gone McConkey-Johnston-Palmer-Fehoko. With Johnston being unlikely to play here, Darius Davis seems to be the most likely to move up, if he is healthy. The group outside of McConkey has been fairly underwhelming so far and I have little faith in all of them, even though one of them is likely to produce well in this matchup. Equal weight on McConkey if he plays, likely underweight on the rest. I would not be shocked at all if we saw 2 TEs sets instead, especially if Chark is not activated for the game.
   10. $4,900/Ladd McConkey – Has seen 6 targets in 4 of 5 games played this season and is averaging 10.6 DK points per game.
   11. $4,400/Joshua Palmer – Has seen at least 3 targets in 3 of 4 games played this season.
   12. $3,000/Semi Fehoko – Downfield threat with Johnston unlikely to play here. Turned in a 2/44/0 effort from 4 targets last week for 6.4 DK points.

TEs: Could this be a Ravens TE week? Absolutely. I am not going to spend the time figuring it out and if in filling out the rest of my lineups, if I have the salary to use Andrews and/or Likely on a few, I will do so and be underweight on both. I will certainly sprinkle some of the Chargers TEs as well, but on this slate, I am willing to go overweight on the two chalk options.

1. $5,600/Trey McBride – With a $2,000 discrepancy between him and Otton, this feels like one of those plays where you better be sure you are right. He feels safer than the Chargers and more dependable than the Ravens options, at least on paper. And usage (Equal Weight or Overweight) should hinge on whether that MHJ plays at WR for the Cardinals. So far this season, the Chargers have allowed the 6^th most targets, 5^th most receptions, and 13^th most DK points at 11.8 points per game, to opposing TE units. McBride has seen at least 6 targets in each of the 5 games that he has played this season and is averaging 12.2 DK points on the season, a number he has eclipsed in each of the last 2 games.
2. $3,600/Cade Otton – The Ravens are allowing the most targets, receptions, receiving yards to opposing TE units so far this season on an average line of 6/73/0 for 13.4 DK points per game, 5^th most in the league. With Otton averaging 9.7 DK points and a 16% target share over the last 4 games, he feels like a near must use here, especially if Evans is less than 100%.

D/ST: With the totals and the QBs involved in each of the games, I think you could make a reasonable case for any of the teams as a D/ST option here. Assuming there is not a defensive or special teams TD to break the slate, you start with a spread approach if you have the number of lineups to play them all and then slightly adjust towards your favorites, based on your methodology. I will heavily play the two and then lightly sprinkle the other two.

1. $3,300/Chargers D/ST – The Cardinals have held opposing D/ST units to the 7^th fewest DK points so far this season at 4.8 points per game. You could argue that the Chargers have not really played anybody great yet and perhaps this is the game they get a little exposed, but the Chargers D/ST has been surprisingly good so far. They have held opponents so far this season to 13.2 ppg and have averaged 2.6 sacks, 1.0 INTs, 0.8 DFRs, and 9.0 DK points per game. Even if the game turns out to be a bit higher scoring, the Chargers can generate points in other ways to be usable here.
2. $2,900/Ravens D/ST – The Bucs have rushed for 90 yards as a team in 5 of 6 games this season. The Ravens have not allowed a team to rush for more than 85 yards all season. The closest comp for this game might be the Lions game which the Bucs ended up winning 20-16, where the Lions D/ST scored 8 DK points. The Bucs have allowed the 16^th fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season at 5.7 points per game. The Ravens D/ST is averaging 5.2 DK points per game and has generated at least 3 sacks in each of the team’s last 5 games.

That is, it from here.  Do not forget to track the NFL Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Good Luck tonight!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)