Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 9: HOU @ NYJ

Thursday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 9: HOU @ NYJ

Lines:

O/U: 42.0

Jets, –1.5

2024 DVOA:

HOU: Defense Against the Run: #4 (2023–8th fewest yards allowed per game at 101.5 yards; 2024–13th fewest yards allowed per game at 116.0 yards).

HOU: Defense Against the Pass: #3

NYJ: Defense Against the Run: #23 (2023–8th most yards allowed per game at 124.0 yards; 2024–16th most yards allowed per game at 125.8 yards).

NYJ: Defense Against the Pass: #18

Thoughts:

Based on the current lines, I think the total and spread are both fair and it feels pretty accurate. If you make me choose, I willcall it Jets 21-20. It is the 4th game for the Texans in the last 19 days and I think it might show here, now being down their Top 2 WRs and two key defensive pieces. They are facing a team that beat them in New York last December 30-6. The Jets are stronger offensively, but with injury concerns of their own defensively, the two could be a wash. However, the Jets are notperforming up to expectations on either side of the ball, so the game should be that much closer. After losing last week’s game in a bit of a statistical anomaly (teams had won 750 straight games – when scoring 20 or more, committing no turnovers and holding opponents to 250 or fewer yards), I believe they are just due for good luck, especially at home. Ideally, I think the Texans will end up giving Mixon 25 carries, while hoping Stroud does not have to do too much and relying on their defense. For as strong as the Texans are defensively here, I think the Jets can still string together enough pressure to disrupt Stroud and generate some turnovers here defensively and while putting the game on the back of Hall and Rodgers and hope between the two of them, someone will deliver a victory in what is truly a must-win game for them. With a virtual 3-game lead in the division, I think the Texans will be happy to not get embarrassed and leave here without any other key pieces ending up on the IR for their second half of the season. Parting shot – monitor the Jets kicking situation. Zuerlein is on the IR for a spell, so they will have a new kicker here. I am assuming that it will be Riley Patterson, but whoever gets the nod, is someone you will want some exposure to in your pool.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,000/Joe Mixon – Since returning from a 3-game absence from a bum ankle all Mixon has done has average 28.6 DK points per game from an average line of 23.7 touches, 130 yards from scrimmage and 1.7 TDs per game. The Jets have allowed the 8th fewest DK points to opposing RB units so far this season at 20.7 points per game from an average line of 29 touches, 131 yards from scrimmage and 0.62 TDs per game. The Jets have the 7th worst rush defense EPA and have allowed 6 rushing TDs over their last 3 games and with CJ Mosley out again, I am not sure the outlook is any better on the ground here for this game.If the Texans have any real shot here, it is going to be from their defense causing havoc and the team committing to pounding the rock all game, the latter seems highly likely. Overweight to Captain and Flex.

$10,400/Breece Hall – With no real Batman and Robin situation here (ala Wilson and now Adams), if I had to chase an offensive piece for the Jets, it is going to be Hall, and I am going to go overweight on him. While true that the Texans have allowed the 3rd fewest DK points to opposing RB units so far this season at 18.3 points per game from an average line of 23 touches, 106 yards from scrimmage and 0.8 TDs per game, Hall is averaging better than 60% of the RB snaps and 17.1 DK points across the season. Hall is averaging 21.3 DK points per game over his last 3 games since the HC/OC swap, from a line of 19.3 touches, 133 yards from scrimmage, and 0.33 TDs per game. The usage is there, but what has not materialized are the TDs. With only 1 over his last 5 games, he seems overdue to grab one, doesn’t he?

$9,000/Aaron Rodgers – If there is a concern here in using Rodgers it is that the Texans have allowed 6 of their 8 opponents to pass for 260 or fewer yards this season and their defense ranks 4th in Sacks, for which Rodgers is taking an average of 2.5 per game so far. What I do like here in this matchup is that the Texans are allowing the 9th most DK points to opposing QBs at 18.2 points per game and Rodgers has eclipsed this number twice this season. The target tree is super small in this offense, as 72% of them over the last 2 weeks have gone to Wilson, Adams, or Hall and that should not change here. This feels like another one of those games where Rodgers may have to throw the ball 35 times and should that materialize, he seems the easiest way to grab a 15-point floor piece of the passing game.

Moderate Usage:

$10,000/C.J. Stroud – In this game, I think Stroud will find out how much he misses Nico Collins in case he did not already know. In the 3 games without him, he has averaged 12.7 DK points. I think the Jets could throw lots of zone coverage at Stroud and Collins was his safety net and preferred target in those situations. In this game, who bails him out? To make matters worse, the Jets have allowed one of the lowest pass completion rates and yards per attempts and the 5th fewest DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 14.1 points per game. Still, Stroud can try to put this team on his back with Mixon’s help and try to lead the team to victory. He sports an 11:4 TD/INT ratio coming into this game on a 16.3 DK point average and after Mixon is the most likely Texan to end up with a double-digit DK point total, with the entirety of the passing game running through him, he is easy to afford making it easy to tap into. And I have no doubt that he remembers the 10-23 line for 91 yards he produced in last year’s effort and would love redemption.

$9,800/Davante Adams – Averaging a 24.5% target share in the 2 games he has played for the Jets and has yet to eclipse double-digits. Whether he gets shadowed by Pitre or Stingley here, neither guarantee a cake matchup for Adams. The Texans have allowed the 14th most DK points to opposing WRs so far this season at 33.4 points per game from an average line of 10/145/1.4. Still, the offense is going to go through Hall, Wilson and Adams and I see no reason to stop riding the three-wheeled machine until one of the wheels falls off in this game they must win. I would not be shocked at all if Rodgers decided to force-feed Adams the ball here and, he out targets Wilson.

$9,600/Garrett Wilson – The softest CB matchup of the 3 would be getting shadowed by Lassiter and that is who I expect to be handling Wilson most of the night. Wilson has seen 8 targets and scored double digit DK points in 7 of 8 games played so far this season. Wilson is averaging a near 30% target share, air yards share, and 17.1 DK points so far this season and has eclipsed the latter total in 3 of his last 4 games.

$9,200/Tank Dell – The Jets are allowing the 2nd fewest DK points to opposing WR so far this season at 25.0 points per game from an average line of 9 touches, 113 yards from scrimmage and 0.875 TDs per game. Dell has scored double-digit DK points in 3 of 7 games played so far this season with a high mark of 18.7 against the Patriots in Week 6. He has averaged a 70%+ snap share over the last 3 weeks and is likely to see something better than 90% here, I assume Stroud will do what he can to feed him the ball, but I cannot help but wonder if the yardage remains low and we end up hoping for TDs to boost his production. Expect to be underweight.

$4,000/Xavier Hutchinson, $3,000/Robert Woods & $2,800/John Metchie III – Both (Woods and Metchie) are likely to spend some time in the slot and see the field for the Texans in 3-WR sets, while the assumption is that Hutchinson will spend much of his time lined out wide. When healthy, the way to attack the Jets has been through the slot as to avoid facing off against their elite corners as they are allowing the 11thhighest target share to slot WRs thus far. The majority of the 17 targets per game that are not being absorbed by Collins and Diggs are going to see some head towards Dell and Schultz, but the remainder could be evenly split between Hutchinson, Woods, and Metchie. They are all so closely priced, it is hard to not play them, but even harder to figure out which 1 or 2 of them will prove useful. In order I prefer Hutchinson, Metchie, and Woods in that order. Hutchinson has seen at least a 50% snap share in each of the last 4 games. Metchie was the biggest beneficiary of Diggs’ early departure last week as he produced a 3/29/0 line from 4 targets.

$3,400/Jets D/ST – The Jets defense has been getting thrashed on the ground over the last 3 weeks in allowing 28+ points per game and has not secured an INT or recovered a fumble in 3 games. As the Texans OL seems to struggle in pass protection, I believe the Jets can dial up enough pressure to get to Collins here and/or force him into a turnover. Considering the Texans lack of established weapons for this game, the Jets defense should be improved here by the Texans offensive scoring less. The Texans have allowed the 12th fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season at 5.1 points per game.

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$5,200/Ka’imi Fairbairn – Averaging 11.9 DK points per game, Fairbairn has scored in double-digits in 6 of 8 games that he has kicked so far this season. The Jets have allowed the 9thmost DK points to opposing kickers so far this season at 9.7 points per game. After Mixon and Stroud, particularly in this game, Fairbairn might be the Texans player to trust most.

$4,400/Braelon Allen – Think last week’s 12/32/1 effort on the ground for 9.2 DK points was a product of the game script and were in shorter yardage opportunities. He was averaging 9 touches per game in Weeks 2-4, but that average plummeted to 4 in Weeks 5-7. As long as Hall keeps seeing closer to 65% of the RB snaps here, Allen will end up in between 4 to 7 most weeks and likely to need a TD to pay off at this salary.

$3,600/Mike Williams – As much as Rodgers does not want to throw him the ball, I do not think he can go another week without a target if he is going to remain the WR3 while Lazard is out. Likely underweight, but the possibility exists he could still end up with hefty yardage or a TD and surprise the world, especially with S/Ward and LB/Al-Shaair already ruled out.

$2,000/Dare Ogunbowale – With the Jets allowing 29 touches and 131 yards from scrimmage to opposing RB units so far this season and Mixon having taken 29 himself on Sunday, I would expect him to get spelled a bit here and the Texans to pursue even more carries. Handled a 21 touch and 87 yards from scrimmage workload for 14.7 DK points in Week 5. Likely to serve as pass catching and change of pace relief for Mixon, seems likely to need to catch a TD to pay off unless he magically gets more carries than expected.

$1,600/Cade Stover – The Jets have allowed the 9th fewest DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 9.5 points per game from an average line of 5/42/0.12 and when you consider what Schultz has yet to do this season, Stover makes some sense as a bit of a flyer, especially considering the long run the coaching staff gave him in the preseason. He was fed a season-high 3 targets in last week’s game and has seen better than 40% of the snaps in each of the last 3 games.

$1,000/Jeremy Ruckert – The difference in salary between Ruckert and Conklin seems too much to ignore here. Conklin has scored 10 or more in 3 of the last 4 games and has consecutive games with TDs, but with the Texans having allowed the fewest DK points to opposing TE units at 7.0 points per game, I think the streak should end here. Ruckert has seen 3 targets in 2 of the team’s last 3 games and is on the field for better than 40% of the snaps.

$200/J.J. Taylor – Dart throw that I am happy to invest in here. The backfield carries that Ogunbowale does not see in relief of Mixon are likely to go to Taylor here as he will serve as the RB3 here after getting signed off the practice squad. Turned 6 carries into 18 yards against the Jaguars in Week 4.

Combos I Liked:

C: Mixon, Stroud, Woods // Rodgers, Hall, Ruckert

C: Mixon, Stroud, Dell, Metchie III // Hall, Ruckert

C: Hall, Rodgers, Wilson, Allen // Mixon, Taylor

C: Hall, Rodgers // Stroud, Mixon, Metchie III, Stover

C: Rodgers, Hall, Wilson, Allen, Ruckert // Mixon

C: Rodgers, Hall, Wilson, Corley // Mixon, Fairbairn

That is, it is from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik(@MrGuruNick)