The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 1

The Daily Spin – NFL Cash Game Edition – Week 1

Week 1’s main slate is a 12-game Sunday board with a clear scoring hierarchy. Tampa Bay at Cincinnati is the high mark at 50.5. New Orleans at Detroit sits just behind it at 49.5. The next usable group is Baltimore at Indianapolis, Arizona at the Chargers, and Chicago at Carolina, all in the 46.5-47.5 range. Green Bay at Minnesota is a step down around 45.5-46.5. After that the slate thins out: Buffalo-Houston and Washington-Philadelphia at 44.5, Atlanta-Pittsburgh and Cleveland-Jacksonville in the low 40s, Miami-Las Vegas near 40.5, and Jets-Titans last at 38.5. In cash, pay for players tied to the highest implied scoring and the cleanest volume. Leave the 38- and 40-point games alone unless a running back’s workload is truly locked.

Cincinnati-Tampa Bay is the safest scoring environment on the slate. The Bengals are a 3.5 point home favorite, which puts both team totals in the mid 20s. Joe Burrow is the quarterback with the strongest combination of weapons and game environment. Ja’Marr Chase is the cash wide receiver if you are paying up at the position. Tee Higgins is the next Bengal to trust if Chase’s salary forces a pivot. On the other side, Baker Mayfield is viable because the total supports him, and Bucky Irving is the Buccaneers runner with the clearer path to touches. Emeka Egbuka is a watch-list receiver, not an automatic cash play.

Detroit-New Orleans is the other cash-game engine. The Lions are a touchdown favorite at Ford Field, and their implied total is the highest team number on the board. Jahmyr Gibbs is the cleanest running back on the slate: home favorite, elite offense and the departure of David Montgomery should allow him to see increased touches. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the safest Lions pass catcher. With Kamara out, Travis Etienne is the Saints back most likely to absorb those touches, which puts him in the cash conversation in a 49.5-point game even if Detroit is heavily favored. Chris Olave remains the one Saints wide receiver who belongs in cash lineups because New Orleans should throw more without Kamara.

The late window is useful, but it is not as clean. Arizona at the Chargers is a 47.5 total with Los Angeles as a 9.5 point favorite. Justin Herbert has a high floor if the Chargers stay on schedule, and Ladd McConkey is the first Chargers receiver to roster. Omarion Hampton is the running back in that spot. A large home favorite often leans on early down work once it gets ahead, which makes Hampton one of the better cash running backs outside Detroit and Cincinnati. Green Bay at Minnesota is a one score game in the mid 40s, which makes Kyler Murray an intriguing, though risky option for his new team. The rest of the early window is about floors, not fireworks.

Week 1 is always interesting for DFS cash game contests. Given how early each site posts salaries for Week 1 each year, there are always some easy plug and play opportunities that allow for owners to build more premium lineups than what we will likely see in weeks ahead. With the extreme amount of prep time available, ownership becomes even more clustered than normal. Do not get too frustrated if things go against you in Week 1 as it usually comes down to one or two decisions rather than your full build. For myself, I tend to get better as the season goes on and I really get the chance to lock into watching every team throughout the year. One strategy to consider is to play a little lighter with your bankroll in the opening few weeks and then crank it up as you start to get comfortable with how players are being utilized. With so many coaching changes this past season, there is going to be a lot of information to digest in the coming weeks.

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