Friday Showdown Slate- Vikings @ Saints
Vikings @ Saints (-7) Game Total = 50.5
DVOA
Saints against the run #1
Saints against the pass #4
Vikings against the run #20
Vikings against the pass #12
The Saints defense ranks highly against the pass and the run, but it is against the run that they are dominant allowing the second least rushing yards per game (89) and the least DK points to runningbacks. Dalvin Cook is pretty much match-up proof with his massive volume, involvement in the passing game, and all goaline looks. We saw him put up 22 DK points in Tampa Bay against the leagues other best run defense. Cook had no problem against these Saints in the playoffs last year rushing for 94 yards and two touchdowns. He is a must own in Showdown Slates always, you just cross your fingers he doesn’t get hurt.
Kirk Cousins has been playing quite well and putting up some impressive numbers the second half of the season. He has 17 touchdowns over his last seven games and has thrown for 300+ yards in three of those. The Vikings want to run first and foremost, but when sledding is tougher, like it was in Tampa, they are forced to throw more than they want to and Cousins is capable of putting up numbers. Cousins target tree is extremely narrow with rookie star Justin Jefferson getting the majority of catches and yards (73 for 1,182 on the season), while Adam Thielen is the redzone monster (13 touchdowns). Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins are formidable perimeter corners which will be guarding Jefferson and Thielen , but they have shown they can be beaten this season. Plus Thielen had a monster game against them in the playoff s last year catching 7 balls for 129 yards and during the regular season in 2018 with 7/103/1.
Kyle Rudolph has not practiced since week 13, so it appears he will be out. Filling in for him is Irv Smith (who is actually a much better pass catching weapon than Rudolph) and surprise fill-in Tyler Conklin who has 8 catches the last two weeks for 97 yards and a touchdown. Basically non-existent until the last couple week Conklin offers a real cheap option to try and offset the high priced guys we need to own elsewhere. Smith is the far superior athlete and to me feels so much safer than Conklin.
I watched every play of last week’s Saints game and it boggles my mind how the Saints do not get Kamara more involved in their offense. How you would rather give the ball to Taysom Hill on the two yard line, I will never understand. I was high on Kamara last week in Brees’s return and based on his ownership in GPPs, most everybody else was high on him as well. He certainly disappointed with his lack of involvement, but for as disappointing as his performance was, he still ended up 18.4 DK points. His last blow-up game was way back in week 10 when he had 34 DK points against the 49ers. The Vikings run defense is soft allowing 119 yards per game. The last few games they have been eaten up by opposing backs giving up at least one touchdown per game to each (Montgomery 146/2, Jones/McCoy 112/1, Robinson 78/1). I just have a feeling Kamara goes off in this game and it could very well be through the air. He was bottled up on the ground in the playoffs last year against the Vikings, but this is not the same Vikings run defense as last year. Brees’s arm continues to get weaker and he will continue to pepper Kamara with dump offs, especially with Michael Thomas out. I am going to own Kamara as captain on 50% of my teams, Cook at 25-30%, and miscellaneous with the rest.
Trequan Smith has not practiced thus far this week, which makes him highly questionable for Friday. If he does not play then Emmanuel Sanders will probably get a few more targets, as will back-ups Tommy Lee Lewis and Juwan Johnson. Lewis has one catch all season on three targets. Johnson has only one catch the last two weeks (none last week), but he did have four targets, which is at least somewhat encouraging.
Ultimately it is going to be Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, and Alvin Kamara that get the vast majority of the targets in this game. The Vikings pass defense has been quite terrible this season allowing the 7th most passing yards against (256) and the 8th most DK points to receivers. Sanders will see either/both Cameron Dantzler or Christopher Jones on the perimeter, both of which are very winnable match-ups. Erik Kendricks, key linebacker for the Vikings has not practiced this week and is looking like he isn’t going to be available which helps both Jared Cook and Kamara’s cause quite a bit. Cook has had 5,4, and 5 targets the last three weeks and two touchdowns as well. If Trequan Smith is out, then Cook will be the main weapon over the middle and could have a real nice game.
The game total is high (50), but don’t completely write off the Saints defense. I have seen so many times throughout my life the Vikings show up and self-destruct, especially on the road. The Saints defense has not been real good lately, but in a stretch between weeks 9-12 they posted double digit DK points in every game forcing 12 turnovers and 14 sacks. This could very well be a shootout in which you do not want any part of a defense, but if you are building multiple teams, you might want to do a Saints overload (5-1 or 4-2) with the Saints defense.
Must Haves:
Cook $12,000
Kamara $11,400
Sanders $8,800
Favorite players for the price:
J Cook $5,600
I Smith $5,200
Low Dollar Options:
Conklin $3,000
J Johnson $2,200
Possible Stacks:
Kamara/Murray/Saints Def/Jefferson or I Smith
Kamara/Cousins/Jefferson or Thielen
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