Jeff’s Betting Picks- Conference Championship
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49ers @ Eagles under 46.5, 2 units. I have actually seen 47 on other sites that I do not have access to, but if you can get that do it.
Eagles -2.5 over 49ers
I am a bit surprised the total for this game is this high considering how strong both of these defenses are. The 49ers ranked #1 in Total DVOA this season and allowed a league low 16.4 points per game. The Eagles ranked #6 in Total DVOA and allowed the 6th least amount of PPG this season with 19.5 (only 17.6 at home). The Eagles rank #1 in defending the pass and the way to beat them is by running the ball (Eagles ranked 21st vs the run). Christian McCaffrey is one of the premier backs in the league, but he is not a guy who you can hand the ball to 25 times and ask him to take over the game on the ground. The 49ers will need Eli Mitchell to do that, but he is banged up coming into this week. Brock Purdy will face his stiffest test on the road in a tough environment against a really good defense and great pass rush. On the other side of the ball is one of the most talented QBs in the league in Jalen Hurts, but I do not see the tough 49er defense allowing him to carve them up. AJ Brown will play, but he is clearly ailing with a hip injury. The Eagle running attack ran all over the Giants, but they will not be able to do that against the 49ers who rank #2 vs the run and shut down any hope the Cowboys had running the ball. I think the spot might be a little too big for Brock Purdy and although I think it will be a close, hard fought game, I believe the Eagles pull it out.
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