Jeff’s Betting Picks- Super Bowl

I will preface this column and my picks with the disclaimer that the Super Bowl is the toughest betting week of the year. No game all year commands a fraction as much attention as the Super Bowl and for that reason the lines are as sharp as they get.  Play a  little this week for fun, but do not put much at risk.  We work too hard all year to grow our bankroll, which we did again this year between our season long prop bets and weekly picks.  Having won every pick for the last couple of weeks was a great way to end the season for me.  I will list a few bets that I will be backing, but again, I will not be exposing a ton of my bankroll this week.  Save it for the season long prop bets next year, because we have crushed those every year we have done them.

 

Chiefs vs Eagles under 50.5.  We know people want to bet on scoring and desire a shoot out and they end up betting on what they want to have happen.  Thus I think we have a bit of an inflated number here.  Certainly, there is plenty of fire power on both sides of the ball, but typically the big game ends up being a little sloppy and not as amazing as we hope for.

 

The MVP of the Game will be a Quarterback -550.  Betting $55 to win $10 is generally not a good long-term approach, but in this situation, I cannot envision Mahomes or Hurts not winning the award.  The Eagles have a committee backfield that will chop up the yards and tds as we have seen all year.  The Cheifs also split time about 50/50 between Mckinnon and Pachecho.  Their WR core core is a bit of a mess right now as well.  With the game total being as high as it is, there will be plenty of points scored and that likely eliminates the small chance of a defender winning.  The only person I can see winning besides the QBs would be Kelce.  Mahomes is the NFL’s darling, so if they win, he is almost guaranteed the award.

 

Miles Sanders under 67.5 yards rushing and receiving yards.  

The Chiefs run defense has actually been stout lately. They limited Joe Mixon to just 19 yards on 8 carries and the Bengals backs to 41 yards.  Travis Etienne had 62 yards, although the game script turned for KC.  They held Josh Jacobs to 45 yards on 17 carries (2.6 yards a carry) in week 18, and Latavius Murray to 56 in week 17.  Miles Sanders will start the game for the Eagles, but he will give way to both Kenny Gainwell and Boston Scott throughout the game.  If KC builds a lead, this bet is a sinch.  Sanders had 11 carries vs the 49ers, 17 vs the Giants in the playoffs, and 11 vs the Giants in week 18.  He just normally does not get the volume to accumulate massive days on the ground.  He rarely is in the game on passing downs and thus hardly never does anything through the air.  You can go under 60.5 rushing yards as well, but I am going to take the extra yards through the air, because he likely will not eclipse 7.5 yards in that department.