Jeff’s Betting Picks- Week 3

Chargers over Jags (-7).  The Jags blanked a depleted (without their two best receivers) and one-dimensional Colts offense last week at home (24-0).  They travel across the country to Los Angeles to face a different class of team than they have seen the first two weeks (lost to Washington 28-22 on the road).  I like Lawrence to improve this season, but this will be a test for him against a much better defense than either Washington or Indy.  The Chargers defense has allowed 19 and 27 points in its first two games, but considering it was against the explosive offenses of the Raiders and Chiefs, it is pretty solid.  My only concern was Justin Herbert’s health as he fractured rib cartilage against the Chiefs.  However, even after he did it he threw some absolute seeds.  I read that it is just a matter of pain management, and that he has been practicing, and expected to be good to go.  The line takes into account the uncertainty as it started at -9.  We are getting a nice price at -7 if he plays, which it sounds likely he will.

After Herbert practicing yesterday and the Chargers saying they expect him to play Sunday, there seemed to be some question today for whatever reason.  If you have not bet on them already, I would hold off until we get some definitive information.  I already took a position myself, so I will just wait and hope he plays.  

Bengals over Jets (-6).  The Super Bowl runner-up has started the season 0-2 in a couple of heart breakers (20-17 loss to Cowboys last week and O.T loss to the Steelers in week 1).  Surprisingly, it has been the Cincy offense (and kicker) that has disappointed thus far this season.  This is a get right spot for them however as the Jets have allowed 24 and 30 points in their first two games against more one dimensional offenses than the Bengals sport.  I look for the Bengals to establish the run early with Mixon, as he struggled with only 3 yards per carry vs the Cowboys.  That will open up Burrow to have a field day with his multitude of weapons.  The Jets are coming off a crazy come from behind win in Cleveland.  This is still a bad Jets team with Joe Flacco at the helm.  The Bengals are in a must win situation here to avoid going 0-3 and I feel like they are going to come out sharp.

Vikings over Lions (-6).  I had an L on the Vikings schedule in Philly at the beginning of the year even though I liked them coming into the season.  A prime time game outdoors in Philly is not an ideal spot for the Vikes.  At home, inside against the Lions, is.  Last year the Vikings beat the Lions 19-17 at home, in 2020 they won 34-20, in 2019 they won 20-7, and in 2018 they won 24-9.  The Lions defense has allowed 27 points to Washington and 38 to the Eagles this season, so the Vikings offense will not be shut down like they were last week.  It is very simple- when Justin Jefferson can get off, Cousins peppers him and all is good with the Vikings offense.  When a defense can shut him down (like last week with Slay), the Vikings offense struggles.  The line was actually -8 for the Vikings before they lost in Philadelphia. I really think that loss needs to be disregarded.  Vikings win in a shootout here.