Jeff’s Betting Picks- Week 5

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I only have two that I really like at this point.  I might add one or two later, but if I do not see a play that I really believe is strong, then I don’t want to put my money behind it.

 

Patriots over Lions (-3).  The Patriots schedule thus far this season has been a meat grinder having played the Ravens, and on the road vs the Packers, Steelers, and Dolphins.  So they are 1-3, but they have had a tough task.  This week they return home where they are typically much better.  Rookie Bailey Zappe actually looked decent last week in the 2^nd half in very tough to play Lambeau field.  He finished up 10 for 15 for 99 yards and a TD.  Bill Belichik will put him in a position to be successful and that will likely be via the running game.  The Lions allow the 3^rd most rushing yards per game (165.5).  The Patriots are going to grind the Lions down on the ground.  The Lions offense has been very good so far this season, but just about every weapon they have (St Brown, Swift, Hockenson) are dinged up.  St Brown did practice on Friday and might play, but Belichik is good at taking away an opponents top weapon.  The Lions have not won a game on the road since 2020.  I like only parting with 3 points in this game.

 

Titans @ Washington over 42.5.  The total opened at 42 then crept up to 42.5 before I could get my ticket.  Now I have seen it slide up to 43 in some places.  What interests me about this game is how both teams have a funnel defense that stops the run, but gets obliterated by the pass.  Typically games with more passing tend to go over the total.  Washington has faced a couple strong defenses the last two weeks (Dallas and Philly), but now return to a weaker opponent like they saw in weeks one and two when they scored 27 and 28 points.  Tennessee has woken up after the debacle that was their first two weeks and scored 24 each of the last two weeks in wins over the Raiders and Colts.  It isn’t a high total and both secondaries have been poor, so I expect some big plays will be made.

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