Jeff’s Betting Picks- Week 6

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Bengals (-2) over Saints. It hasn’t been easy for the defending AFC champions, but that is no surprise given their schedule this year. A real fluke loss to the Steelers week 1 that included a missed extra point that cost them the game.  Otherwise it was losses to a couple pretty solid teams (Cowboys 4-1 and Ravens 3-2).  It has really been their offensive line that has cost them, because their defense has been very solid allowing no more than 23 points in any of the five games and 17 or less in each of their last three games.  Tee Higgins left the game last week, which hurt them.  He remains questionable this week.  It is the Saints however that have an enormous amount of question marks as to who will be able to play including Jameis Winston, Jarvis Landry, Michael Thomas, Chris Olave and Marshon Lattimore.  The Saints have only won two games as well, but they came against the lower rung of the NFC (Falcons and Seahawks who are a combined 4-6).  I booked the Bengals at -2 at BETUS, but since then it has gone to -2.5.  I would still bet 2.5 if I had to, but other books like Draftkings, Fanduel, and BET365 still have it at -2.

 

Rams (-10) over Panthers.  I was burned by the Rams in week 2 when they inexplicably blew a 28-3 lead to the Falcons at home and only won by 4.  It has been a far from ideal start after winning the Super Bowl, but much like with the Bengals, a tougher schedule is inevitable.  Losses to the Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys (combined 11-4), is far from embarrassing.  This is a get right spot for the Rams against a really terrible Panthers team that is 1-4 who just fired their coach and will likely be without Baker Mayfield who is dealing with a high ankle sprain.  PJ Walker could be the starting quarterback for the Panthers on Sunday.  They have been trending negatively having lost by 10 to the Cardinals and 22 to the 49ers, both at home.  Now they head across the country to play the Rams who were home last week.  The Rams offense has certainly been disappointing the last couple of weeks, but again they faced the 49ers and Cowboys who are two of the top six defenses in the NFL.  One big concern for me was Cooper Kupp’s injury, but he practiced on Thursday and looks to be good to go.

 

Vikings and Dolphins over 45.5.  Two of the worst five defenses in the NFL DVOA, both continue to leak oil lately as the Dolphins D allowed a 40 spot to the Jets last week, while the Vikings have been friendly to a couple of bad offenses allowing 22 to the Bears and 25 to the Andy Dalton led Saints.  The Vikings game totals the last three games have been 51, 53, and 52.  Apparently, Mike McDaniel is electing to start Skylar Thompson over Teddy Bridgewater, which is suspect, but I would not be surprised to see Teddy at some point in the game.  The Vikings have a tendency to get carved up by back-up quarterbacks through the years, so whoever it is, they will likely be effective.  I cannot see the Vikings secondary stopping the elite weapons of the Dolphins.  On the other hand, the Vikings have plenty of firepower, especially with Jefferson and the Dolphins have been torched by opposing wide receivers this season.   I don’t think either defense can stop the opposing offense.  I booked this on Bovada.

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