Jeff’s GPP Core- Conference Championships

Bills @ Chiefs (-1.5) Game Total= 47.5

Washington @ Eagles (-6) Game Total = 47.5

 

QB:

Jayden Daniels has looked like superman the last couple of weeks, but neither game has been anything like he will face in Philly this week.  He torched this Eagle defense in week 16 at home (258 yards and 5 TDs), but it is going to be cold and nasty this week in Philly and I expect his production to be more like it was in week 11 in Philly (191 yards and 1 TD).  He does have the ability to accumulate DK points with his legs, especially if they are playing from behind.  I think he is worth exposure on 25% of your rosters.

I will own Josh Allen on another 50% of my rosters, because he has the highest ceiling of any QB on the slate.  The Bills will go as Josh Allen goes this week. It is not super easy to own him at the lofty price, but he is a slate breaker and if he goes for 30+ DK points we will want plenty of exposure.

I owned shares of Patrick Mahomes last week and he crushed those rosters of mine that he was on.  A slow and plodding game flow had him attempting just 25 passes for 177 yards.  Xavier Worthy was tackled on the one foot line, which was extremely frustrating since I paired him and Mahomes and had an over 1.5 TD prop on Mahomes.  This game should be more high paced as the Bills are going to be able to score and will push the Chiefs offense.  The Chiefs run game has been really bad with both Pacheco and Hunt looking slow and ineffective.  I am going to go back to Mahomes this week mostly because of his price ($1,500 less than Allen) and will own him on 25% of my rosters.

 

RB:

The guy on this slate that I want to make sure I have on my rosters ahead of anybody else is Saquon Barkley.  Not only does he see the highest volume of any player on the slate, he has been unstoppable.  Beyond how good he is, the other options at the position for this slate are not all that amazing.  James Cook is good, but the Bills have been mixing in their other backs, including near the goaline (Ray Davis pirated a TD last week).  Between Davis and Ty Johnson, they had nine carries last week, which affects Cook directly.  The Chiefs run defense has been the stingiest vs the run all year in the NFL.  Mixon did well against them last week, but to think a Bills back is going to be able to approach anything near 100 yards is not real likely.

Beyond Saquon, I am going to try and save some cap space.  Neither Pacheco or Hunt has been explosive at all and they are splitting a minimal amount of carries, so although I might sprinkle them in, neither is incredibly appealing.

The Eagles run defense is no joke as they allowed the 2^nd least amount of DK points to RBs this season.  Brian Robinson had a couple of TDs last week vs a swiss cheese Lions defense, but he had not found the endzone before that since week 13.  He had only two 20+ DK point games all season, so the upside isn’t high.  With Washington being a 6-point dog, the game script is more likely to have them throwing the ball often, which means Austin Ekeler could see a larger role.  He has had 4 targets in each of his last two games.  I am going to pay down to him and try and sneak out 15 DK points from him, likely coming through the air.  I will own a couple shares of Ty Johnson, because he is capable of being involved in the passing game and if Buffalo falls behind he might play a bigger role.

 

WR:

I am owning Mahomes on some of my rosters, so it makes sense to pair him with his top WR, so I will own Xavier Worthy.  Like I mentioned earlier, Worthy was stopped at the 1 foot line, which hurt really bad.  He still caught 5 balls for 45 yards in a slow, plotting, defensive game.  The Chiefs go out of their way to involve Worthy into their offense and have designed plays to him, especially in the redzone.

It appears the Bills think Amari Cooper is dust (no more than 3 targets in any of his last five games).  There has been no effort by Allen or the Bills to get him or Keon Coleman the ball. Coleman has been targeted just four times the last two games combined.  I frankly do not understand it, but it is certainly concerning. Instead, it has been all Khalil Shakir underneath and he has seen at least six targets every one of his last seven games. In a game that the Bills should have a tougher time running the ball, might be playing from behind, and don’t want to involve their outside receivers, Shakir and the TEs could see heavy volume.

Dyami Brown has been a revelation for Washington13 targets the last two playoff games he has caught 11 balls for 187 yards and a TD.  He has overtaken Olamide Zaccheaus as their #2 WR.  Of course their #1 is Terry McLaurin, who has been sensational for most of this season especially in their last few games.  He is Daniels safety blanket and sees a lot of endzone targets.  We expect Washington to need to throw, so it makes sense to own him on rosters and likely will be pairing him with Daniels on those rosters that I own him.

AJ Brown is the alpha for the Eagles, but DeVonta Smith is very capable of breaking off a big play and has actually posted a couple 30+ DK point games this year.  I do not see this being that type of game, I think Smith gets overlooked in this spot and at this price.  I do like Brown as well, if I have some extra cap space, but I am intrigued by Smith.

 

 

TE:

Fool me once shame on Travis Kelce, fool me twice shame on me.  Last year Kelce mailed it in during the regular season (compared to his normal dominance) only to explode like his hall of fame self in the playoffs.  In hibernation for most of this regular season, guess who awoke for the playoffs?  7/117/1 in a low offense game.  He caught 66% of Mahomes passing yards.  The Chiefs will continue to force feed him the ball and I am not sure anybody can stop him.  Count me in on almost all my rosters.

Zach Ertz caught all five of his targets last week and found the endzone for the fourth time in four games. He is easily one of Washington’s top threats when targeting the endzone.  Last week there were a lot GPP winners who had a TE in their flex position and that could very well happen again this week, so owning Kelce and Ertz on the same roster might not be a bad play.

 

DEF:

When you have four of the very best QBs in the NFL playing this week, it makes it difficult finding a DEF that stands out.  The Bills DEF had 6 DK points vs the Chiefs when they met in week 11, but that game was in Buffalo.  The Chiefs DEF had just 1 DK point.  Unless there is a fluke play for a defensive score, I have a hard time seeing either defense rack up a ton of sacks or turnovers.  It makes most sense to me to target the rookie QB on the road in the cold even as good as Daniels has been.  The Philly DEF has scored 10 and 14 DK points at home the last two weeks in the playoffs.  As a 6-point favorite, the game script should have Washington playing from behind. I think it is worth paying up here.