Jeff’s GPP Core- Week 11

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Pairings and game stack possibilities:

 

 Cardinals @ Texans (Game Total = 49)

• Chris Stroud and the Texans offense has been on fire the last couple of weeks putting up 39 points vs the Bucs at home and then 30 at Cincinnati last week.
• Kyler Murray returned last week and did ok fantasy wise scoring 18.26 DK points.
• The Texans have been involved in some high scoring affairs this year including the game vs the Bucs two weeks ago (76 points), but also 54 vs the Jags, 51 vs the colts, and 57 vs the Bengals.

 

Bears @ Lions (Game Total = 48)

• Lion home games have averaged 50 points per game this season, which is close to what the sportsbooks predict here.
• Justin Fields return is huge for the potential of this turning into a shootout.
• If it turns into a back and forth game, rather than just being one-sided on the part of the Lions, Bears players are available at some cheap prices.

 

QB:

 Chris Stroud, $7,000

• Red hot lately, Stroud has 826 yards and 7 TDs in his last two games!
• The Cardinals have allowed 27 PPG in their last three games.
• The game total is one of the highest on the slate and a shootout appears likely.

 

Jared Goff, $6,600

• Death, taxes, and Jared Goff at home against bad teams, three certainties in life. At home this season Goff has averaged 268 yards and 2 TDs.
• The Bears allow the 7^th most passing yards per game and the 6^th most DK points to opposing QBs.
• I obviously like a pairing with St Brown, but also La Porta can be an option as well.

 

Kyler Murray, $6,100

• I prefer Stroud in this game, but in the case that you need to cut costs, I am happy to own Murray in what is expected to be a shootout.
• In his return last week he threw for 249 yards and also ran for 33 with a score. (18.26 DK points).
• I expect the Cardinals to be playing from behind here (5-point underdog), which would provide a game script favoring Murray throwing more.

 

 Jordan Love, $5,600

• Too good of a match-up to pass on here against a Chargers team that is horrendous in stopping the pass (Allowed the most passing yards of any team in the NFL per game by nearly 30 yards). They also allow the 2^nd most DK points to opposing QBs.
• Although not a high ceiling, Love consistently puts up mid-teens for scoring and has been more fantasy friendly lately with 6 TD passes in his last four games.

 

RB:

 

Christian McCaffrey, $9,300

• I don’t often pay up for CMAC, but this pick is dictated by the lack of great options at the position this week.
• CMAC has scored 20+ DK points in three straight games, and although that is not amazing for a $9k player, his ceiling remains 30+ DK points.
• The Bucs defense has been stout and the big red 2^nd next to OPRK on DK should keep CMACs ownership down.
• I really don’t care who CMAC is playing, he can do it all, including through the air, and at home with a positive game script, and if we get lower ownership, I like this play even more.

 

Tony Pollard, $6,600

• I am as disenchanted with Pollard as anybody, but we have seen RBs throw up complete duds in smash situations (SEE: Devin Singletary) one week and snap back the next week for a huge game with much lesser ownership.
• Pollard had opportunity last week, which is encouraging. He had a couple carries inside the 5 and ended with 15 attempts.
• The Panthers are terrible vs the run (7^th most rushing yards allowed per game-131.9). They also allow the 2^nd most DK points to opposing WRs.
• The Cowboys are going to make a significant effort to make Pollard successful in this easy match-up to get him going.

 

Brian Robinson, $5,800

• A huge 30+ point DK week last week, Robinson is clearly Washington’s lead back (12 carries/game over his last three).
• He has found the endzone in 4 of his last 5 games.
• The Giants allow the 9^th most rushing yards per game.
• Washington is a huge home favorite (-9) and should certainly be in the lead most of this game.

 

Devin Singletary, $5,300

• After a dud of a game when everybody owned him in week 9, Singletary posted a monster last week (26.1 DK points).
• The Cardinals run defense has allowed the 5^th most rushing yards this season and the 3^rd most DK points to RBs.
• Dameon Pierce has not practiced yet this week, so he is questionable to play.
• The Texans are a 5-point home favorite, so game script should allow for Singletary to see significant carries.

 

Jerome Ford, $5,200

• With Watson out and Thompson-Robinson starting at QB for the Browns, they will be trying to hammer the ground game.
• Ford has seen 20 and 17 carries the last two weeks. He went over 100 yards last week.
• The Steelers has been vulnerable vs the run this year and allow the 8^th most rushing yards per game (131.2).
• The last two weeks they have allowed 5.8 yards per carry to Harris/Warren and 4.7 to Dillon/Jones.
• Even with Watson out, the sportsbooks still think this will be a close game.

 

 

WR:

 

Tyreek Hill, $9,300

• A tough game for Hill vs the Chiefs as they schemed to make sure he did not beat them.
• This is a huge bounceback spot for Hill who put up at least 25 DK points in each of the four games leading up to the Chiefs game.
• Miami beats up on bad teams and will feature Hill in this game. Look for his target total to exceed his already lofty 10/game.

 

Amon-Ra St Brown, $8,800

• It makes sense to stack this game and if so, then you pretty much have to include St Brown.
• In last week’s shootout vs the Chargers he saw 9 targets and caught 8 of them for 156 and a score.
• The Bears allow the 7^th most yards threw the air

 

Terry McLaurin, $5,800

• At least 7 targets in each of his last five games, had 8 last week in his worst output game of the year (4/33).
• Makes sense to go back to him here as he has a fantastic match-up against perimeter corners Adoree Jackson and Deonte Banks.
• The Giants allowed receiving TDs to all three Cowboy WR last week (Lamb, Cooks, and Gallup).

 

 Christian Kirk, $6,000 & Calvin Ridley, $5,400

• I like to target passing attacks vs the Titans because they have a funnel defense (although not as much as it has been in the past).
• Kirk saw the heavy volume last week, but I think the Jags will go out of their way to get Ridley involved here. Plus he has great match-ups vs perimeter corners Kristian Fulton and Roger McCreary.
• I think the Jags get their offense back on track after a complete dud last week vs the 49ers, and Zay Jones has been a mess between injuries and off the field stuff, so he might be out yet again.

 

DJ Moore, $5,600

• Moore has not caught a TD pass since Justin Fields got hurt (5 when he was healthy). Fields is back this week and Moore gets a giant bump.
• The Lions have been middle of the road or worse vs the pass this year and allow the 12^th most PPG and the 13^th most DK points to WR.
• This game has a high point total (48), so they are expecting some offense.
• This is a great pay down option who should see heavy volume.

 

Romeo Doubs, $5,200

• On those rosters that I have Jordan Love, I need to pair him with somebody and Doubs makes the most sense.
• Only five targets last week and 6 per game over his last three, but he has been the redzone guy for the Packers and scored 6 times this season.
• The Chargers have been torched through the air and allow the most yards through the air per game and the 5^th most DK points.

 

Michael Wilson, $3,400 

• A low dollar sleeper option in what we are predicting to be a shootout.
• 6 targets in each of his last two games, last week caught 3 for 34 yards.

Rondale Moore, $3,300

Wilson was ruled inactive, so I am going to substitute Rondale Moore in his spot.  

 

 

Jalen Guyton, $3,300

• 6 targets last week, Guyton is a GPP option because of his long ball capability.
• He likely will not see a ton of targets (although he did see 6 last week), but one long TD and he smashes value for his low price.

 

TE:

I rarely every use a tight end in the flex position, but  think it is a viable strategy this week.  There are a bunch of TEs in smash spots this week and using one in the flex spot will help lower our payroll and certainly make us contrarian.

Dalton Schultz, $5,000

• A disappointment last week considering the Texans went off again, but Schultz has done that several times this year, only to post huge games the week after.
• Since week 5 Schultz has seen nearly 8 targets a game.
• A game that could shootout, I want to lock in a sure thing to see targets.

 

 Dalton Kincaid, $4,900

• Since Knox’s injury, Kincaid has emerged as one of the best TEs in the NFL. 8 targets per game over his last four games, he has scored over 15 DK points in each game.
• Josh Allen has been locked in on Kincaid, and we get him for a super cheap $4,900
• The Jets secondary is tough and will likely lockdown on Diggs and Davis, leaving Allen forced to find Kincaid even more than he has been.

 

Trey McBride, $4,400

• This guy is a beast and has put up monster games in two of his last three, since Ertz was injured.
• With Murray back last week, McBride saw 9 targets and went for 8/131.
• His price has increased, but still not where it should be.
• The Texans have allowed the 7^th most DK points to TEs.

 

Cole Kmet, $4,100

• Kmet gets a bump, just as DJ Moore does, although Kmet has still seen 8 targets a game the last three weeks with Fields out.
• Lions have been vulnerable to the TE position this season (11^th most DK points allowed).

 

DEF:

Washington, $3,600

• Have you seen Tommy DeVito play? That is the precise reason I am owning the Washington Defense this week.
• The Giants would be better off with Joe Pesci’s version of Tommy DeVito playing QB.

 

Steelers, $3,500

• The Steelers defense has improved so much from the first four weeks. They have not allowed over 20 points in any of their last five.
• They have the 11^th most sacks in the NFL (27) and have been forcing two turnovers a game.
• The biggest thing here is that the Browns are starting rookie 5^th round pick Dorian Thompson-Robinson at QB.

 

Jags, $3,400

• I really like this play and I am not sure many will be on it.
• The Jags employ a funnel defense and are very tough against the run (only 86 yards allowed per game on the ground). That is where the Titans strength lies.
• Will Levis came crashing back down to earth last week completing under 50% of his passes and throwing an INT. If the Jags force him to pass, they could put up some nice DK points.
• Jags will bounce back from last weeks drubbing and they are a 7-point home favorite.

 

Dolphins, $3,200

• Not that many turnovers, but they have been sacking the QB (19 in their last 5 games).
• The game script should play into the MIA D hands as they are almost double digit favorites.
• Aidan O’Connell has thrown 3 INTs and had 4 fumbles (2 lost) in just four games played.