Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Main Slate Week 14

Favorite Game Stacks:

Bills @ Bucs, o/u 53

Raiders @ Chiefs, o/u 48

 

QB:

Patrick Mahomes, $8,000

• He hasn’t been Mahomes like this second half of the season, oh except for the one game where he played the Raiders and put up 406 yards and 5 TDs.
• Despite his struggles he is capable of putting up an absolute monster. Last year he beat up on the Raiders as well with 348/2 and 340/2.
• The Raiders rank 23^rd vs the pass DVOA. I like a stack with Hill or Kelce as well.

Josh Allen, $7,800

• This game sets up so nicely for a shootout and the fact that the Bills will likely not even attempt to run the ball, makes it that much more exciting for Allen.
• Allen has one of the two highest ceilings this week at QB and because it is so difficult to run on the Bucs, opposing QBs put up points (9^th most DK points).

Cam Newton, $5,400

• In the low dollar range, Newton is my favorite option. We saw typical garbage Newton when things were not going well last week.  The guy is a quitter.
• He is fortunate enough to have a home game against the lowly Falcons this week to get right however.
• The Falcons allow the 2^nd most points/game from their opponents, rank 4^th worst vs the pass DVOA, and allow the 3^rd most DK points to QBs.
• Expect a rushing score or two from Newton, especially with CMAC out.

 

RB:

Eli Mitchell, $6,700

• • 20+ carries in each of his last three games, the 49ers have committed to Mitchell as their bellcow back.
  • Mitchell has 9 targets the last two weeks and has also found the endzone in each as well.
  • He is listed as questionable, but is expected to be fine. Make sure to monitor his situation through the weekend.

Update- Mitchell has been ruled out, so it becomes Jeff Wilson and Jamycal Hasty. Wilson has already been a bust for those others who rostered him a few weeks ago in lead back duty. Hasty might be fine, but if they are splitting carries between the two, I think I will just pass on both.

Josh Jacobs, $6,200

• Kenyan Drake is out for the year, which gives Jacobs his bellcow role back. Last week we saw how he became the pass catching back with 9 catches.  This role makes him game script independent.
• The Chiefs rank 6^th worst vs the run DVOA and the Raiders will want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible in this one.
• A game script stack might be Jacobs along with Mahomes and/or Hill or Kelce.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, $6,100

• I was wondering if his role as lead back had changed, since returning from injury, but it clearly has not. The last two games he has 12 and 14 carries, along with 5 targets.
• The Raiders have allowed the 4^th most DK points to opposing RBs.
• This is a contrarian play in a game that could be a shootout. Most people who stack this game will own others, but Helaire could be the best buy.

Antonio Gibson, $6,000

• I have gone heavy lately on Gibson and he has delivered for us. Three of his last four games have been 21.8, 26.6 and 22.1 DK points.  He has also seen carries of 24, 19, 29, and 23.
• JD McKissic is questionable, but if he is out then Gibson becomes a big pass catching option for them as well (13 targets the last two games).

Ty Johnson, $4,400

• Michael Carter is on IR and now Tevin Coleman just joined him, so Johnson appears to be the only decent option left.
• I never love an opposing back to the Saints tough run defense, but Johnson is an accomplished pass catcher as well.
• As a 5-point dog, the Jets will have a negative game script and Johnson could mount up a ton of dump off catches and pay off his low price.

If Melvin Gordon is out, then Javonte Williams is in another smash spot. If Gordon plays, I worry that we will have a backfield split and Williams will still have high ownership, which is a poor combination. So If Gordon is back and sounds like he will be 100%, then I am going to fade Williams.  This is a changing situation, so be sure to listen to what is being said by the Broncos- Is it a Darrell Henderson type return for Gordon -or- a full return.

WR:

Tyreek Hill, $8,500

• The highest ceiling of any receiver, no matter the slate. He has four games over 27 DK points this season, including one with 40 and one with 50.
• I am stacking this game and like the Mahomes/Hill pairing even though it is expensive.

DJ Moore, $6,200

• A bit of a resurgence since Cam has returned, the last two weeks he has 9/153/1 on 17 targets.
• The Falcons rank 4^th worst against the pass DVOA this season and Godwin and Evans absolutely put it on them last week.
• I like that the Panthers are at home and CMAC is not an option. Cam will want to get the next best weapon the Panthers have involved.

Elijah Moore, $5,900

• A really strong second half to his rookie season now has 34 catches for 459 and 5 TDs in his last six games.
• It helps that the Jets are always playing from behind. He has been targeted 57 times in those six games.
• We know how hard it is to run on the Saints, so opponents turn to the passing game almost exclusively, which will benefit Moore very much. He is currently questionable, but has not practiced this week.  Keep an eye out to see if he is ruled out or is going to play.

Brandon Aiyuk, $5,800

• If Moore is ruled out, a closely priced pivot would be Aiyuk who has been surging lately with at least six targets and 50 yards receiving in each of his past games.
• Deebo is questionable and if ruled out, I like Aiyuk even more, but if Deebo plays, I still like Aiyuk.
• There is a chance the 49ers fall behind in this game or it becomes high scoring. The Bengals rank 18th DVOA against the pass.

Jerry Jeudy, $5,600

• It hasn’t been an explosion of production for Jeudy since he returned from IR in week 8, but he is clearly the Broncos best option in the passing game.
• He has averaged 6 targets per game since his return.
• He has one of the most lopsided cornerback match-ups of the main slate against slot corner Will Harris.

Jamison Crowder, $4,700

• Its not that I like Crowder or the Jets, it is that I like the particular matchup that Crowder has in the slot against Saints slot corner PJ Williams who I target all the time.
• Moore is a better WR, but Crowder is capable of exploiting a match-up and if he gets into the endzone last week (4/62) he has a really nice week for the price.
• The Jets will likely be behind, so a good game script to be throwing.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, $4,500

•  AJ Brown still on IR, although Julio Jones looks set to return.
• He has gone 9/132/1 on 14 targets the last two weeks without those two in the lineup.
• The Jags continue to get throttled in the passing game, ranking second worst DVOA and giving up 233 yards to Rams receivers last week.

 

TE:

Travis Kelce, $7,400

• As Mahomes goes, Kelce goes and it has not been good lately. Like Mahomes, his only big game lately was against these Raiders (8/119 on 10 targets).
• The Raiders allow the 2^nd most DK points to opposing TEs.
• He is expensive, but capable of a 25+ DK point game and he will be in some of my game stacks for this game.

Dawson Knox, $5,000

• We can throw out last week’s debacle on Monday night for Knox. The two games previous to that he 9/112/2 on 13 targets.
• This game could be a shootout with a ton of passing. The Bucs pretty much eliminate the run game and the Bills are happy to throw every down.
• Knox is key in the redzone, which makes his ceiling nice for the price.

Evan Engram, $3,500

• Daniel Jones practiced in a limited fashion and is likely to return. Other pass catching options Golladay and Toney are likely not, leaving Engram a chance to see nice volume.
• He has seen 5,6,5 targets the last three games.
• Chargers have allowed the 6^th most DK points to TEs this season.

 

DEF:

Panthers, $2,800

• The Falcons suck, the Panthers are a home favorite, which means positive game script.
• Panthers have had some decent upside performances on defense (12, 11, 12 DK points).
• A Newton/Panthers D stack is an interesting play given Cam’s propensity to run a ton.

Jets, $2,500

• Just a dreadful defense, but did you see Taysom Hill play last week?
• Weather could be a bit of an issue in this game as it certainly will be cold. If the Jets can contain the Saints running game or possibly get ahead and force the Saints to pass, it would be huge.
• Total punt play, but worth the cap savings.

Texans, $2,400

• A cheap, contrarian home team.
• Russell Wilson has not looked himself since returning from injury.
• Texans have been able to get to the QB lately with 11 sacks over their last 4 games.