Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Main Slate Week 15

This week’s main slate is a cluster fuck.  I have written and re-written this article so many times my head is spinning.  I have decided this is a good week to play minimal DFS. The majority of the players have covid and or maybe on the list, maybe not, plus they have suspended games.  It is truly a shit show.   Be sure to watch  the injury report really closely all the way up until lineup lock on Sunday, because you have no idea who will be sent to the covid list in short order.

 

QB:

Josh Allen, $8,100

• With Mahomes struggling a bit (at least fantasy wise), Allen has become the highest upside option at the position.
• An incredible 42 DK points against the Bucs last week, he has now gone over 25 DK points six times this year.
• The Panthers appear to have lost interest and Cam Newton is doing them no favors in the chemistry department. Last weeks home loss to the Falcons was pitiful and Cam’s benching was embarrassing.
• The Bills will want a big win at home to work on the home field throughout the playoff race.

Kyler Murray, $7,900

• James Conner is banged up, questionable, and has not practiced.
• Coming off a bad loss at home, the Cardinals will want redemption and this feels like a Murray blow-up game.
• I am not psyched about his options to stack with at WR (especially with Hopkins out). I am not opposed to rolling with him without a stack with his rushing prowess.

Tua, Tagovailoa, $5,700

• When in doubt pick on the Jets.
• Tua went for 273/2 on the road against the Jets a few weeks ago.
• Now at home, I am banking on more.

 

RB:

 

James Conner, $6,400

• It is up in the air whether Conner will play. It is real easy- If he plays, load up on him against the leagues 4^th worst run defense DVOA.  If he does not play, then do not play him.  If he does not play, then Chase Edmonds is in play, as it appears he will be active coming off IR this week.

Myles Gaskin, $5,600

• Supposed to return from the covid list.
• I already have Tua exposure, but you cant own too many guys against the Jets.
• In their first meeting, Gaskin had 96 total yards and a TD.
• A home favorite will have the game script in favor of Gaskin getting a lot of carries.

D’onta Forman, $5,200

• Two straight decent games, one with 100+ yards and the other with a TD.
• The Steelers have been very shaky against the run this season, especially lately (7^th most DK points to RBs).

Michael Carter, $4,700

• The Jets designated Carter to come off the IR this week.
• Before his injury, Carter was having a solid season with 738 total yards and 4 TDs.
• I am wondering if he might get overlooked a little bit by people who might not know he is coming off the IR.

 

WR:

Stefon Diggs, $7,700

• A disappointing season for Diggs, at least compared to last year. He has a spectacular match-up this week with primary coverage from CJ Henderson (3^rd best matchup on our WR vs CB match-up chart)
• I am expecting an outburst from the Bills offense after a tough loss last week.
• Diggs continues to see a lot of targets (over 9 per game).
• A nice pairing with Allen.

Diontae Johnson, $7,500

• Continues to get massive targets (at least 10 in each of his last five games).
• Titans have allowed the 2^nd most DK points to WRs.

Brandon Aiyuk, $6,300

• A big threat since week 9 when he was welcomed back into the offense.
• 29 targets the last four weeks, and has 2 TDs in that stretch.
• Falcons have allowed the 5^th most DK points to opposing WRs this season.

AJ Green, $4,900

• He looked like vintage AJ Green last week with 7/102.
• Hopkins is out, so that leaves Green as the main man for Murray to target.
• Lions rank 3^rd worst vs the pass DVOA.

DeVante Parker, $4,300

• The Dolphins best receiver this year, Jaylen Waddle is on the covid list and it is uncertain whether he will come off.
• If he does not play, then Parker becomes the clear #1 pass catching option for the Dolphins.
• He returned from injury last week and caught 5 balls for 62 yards.
• The Jets defense is horrible all around, but rank dead last against the pass DVOA.
• This is a nice, cheap option this week to pair with Tua.

 

TE:

Dawson Knox, $5,100

• Found the endzone again last week against the Bucs for his 8^th TD of the season.
• The tight end position is tough every week, but this week especially tough, so a combo with Allen makes a ton of sense.

Mike Gesicki, $5,000

• I won’t own all the Dolphins in my core on any one roster, but I do want different combinations.
• I love the Tua/Gesicki stack in this game.
• He hasn’t had a high ceiling game since week 7, but like against every other position, the Jets suck giving up the 7^th most DK points to TEs.

Pat Freiermuth

• His volume has come down lately, but he continues to get into the endzone with a TD last week and in 3 out of his last 4 games.
• There isn’t a tight end at Freiermuth’s price point or less that I like more.

 

DEF:

Bills, $3,100

• I am betting on this game being a laugher, with the Bills pounding the Panthers.
• Cam Newton is just an awful QB, but I guess the Panthers want to be able to bench him in the middle of the game again, because it appears they are going to start
• him again.

49ers, $3,100

• Big time pressure on the QB the last two weeks with 9 sacks.
• In four of his last five weeks they have posted 16, 11, 9, and 9 DK points.
• A 9-point home favorite, will have the Falcons playing from behind.