Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Main Slate week 16

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QB:

Justin Herbert, $7,400.  Another blow-up spot for Justin Herbert this week following one we predicted against the Raiders last week. The Broncos are down like four corners and claiming guys off waivers to jump in and fill spots at this point.  They were destroyed by the Bills last week and the Panthers two weeks ago.  Herbert will throttle them at home, I just wish I knew what receiver to stack him with.  If Keenan Allen is healthy (which it is hard to tell because he was active last week and only played 30% of the snaps), then he has a superb match-up.  If he is out then I think you drop down to Jalen Guyton or Tyron Johnson.

Baker Mayfield, $6,100.  The Browns offense has been on fire and so has Mayfield.  He clinched a win for us in our season long prop bet(   ) for him last week already for touchdown passes this season.  Jared Goff couldn’t figure out how to beat the Jets, but he is the only one this year as they have a funnel defense that has been eaten alive by opponents passing games.

Mitchell Trubisky, $5,700.  I stacked Trubisky and Robinson on a lot of rosters two weeks ago against Houston and it paid off nicely as he put up 25 DK points.  I see the same type of output this week against an atrocious Jags defense (and team) that have allowed the 5^th most passing yards per game and the 8^th most DK points to quarterbacks.

Andy Dalton, $5,500.  The Eagles secondary is so beaten up and terrible that I think even Dalton can exploit it.  Last week I loaded up on Kyler Murray to capitalize on this Eagles defense and he went nuts. Dalton has plenty of weapons to throw to. Darius Slay is out of concussion protocol and will likely be on Amari Cooper, which does not rule him out completely, it just really makes me like Gallup and Lamb and love the cheap stack with Dalton.

 

RB:

David Montgomery, $7,700.  On an absolute tear, scoring 27+ DK points in each of his last four games and rushing for 100 yards+ in three of them.  He is in a smash spot against the Jags that have allowed the 3^rd most rushing yards per game and the 3^rd most DK points to runningbacks.

Miles Sanders, $7,000. I have liked Sanders from when he was drafted, I just haven’t been on him much this season for match-up reasons, but this feels like a really nice spot against a Cowboy run defense that has allowed the most rushing yards per game this season (161).  I kind of like a game stack with Sanders/Dalton/and Gallup or Lamb.

Antonio Gibson, $6,600.  It is completely unclear as to whether Gibson will play this week, but if he does he gets the horrific run defense of the Panthers who just got torched by Aaron Jones last week and has allowed the 4^th most DK points to runningbacks this season.  Before he went down with an injury Gibson had emerged as Washington’s bellcow back and had scored 7 touchdowns in his previous four games.  It is all dependent on whether he is healthy, so watch the injury report carefully and if he is fire him up.

Leveon Bell, $5,800.  Edwards-Helaire is doubtful for the Chiefs, which makes Bell the #1 guy.  He handled 15 carries last week for 62 yards and got into the endzone.  He should see similar volume this week against the Falcons who have been decent containing the rushing game (104 yards rushing allowed per game), but as usual they get torched through the air, thus they have given up the 10^th most DK points to runningbacks.

Gio Bernard, $4,800.  I feel like I have to mention Gio, because of his insanely cheap price this week against one of the very worst run stopping teams in the league in the Texans that have allowed the most DK points to opposing backs.  Gio went nuts last week against the Steelers getting 25 carries and 22 DK points.  He was essentially benched the week earlier however after a fumbled and only saw 3 carries.  He is likely going to be massively popular, and yes he might provide value based upon the price, but I have to say it feels like a trap.

Darrell Henderson, $4,500.  I don’t love any back heading against the Seahawks this season, especially lately.  However, Cam Akers is out, which means Henderson should get the bulk of the Rams carries on the ground.  Plus he has been involved in the passing game this season, which heightens his floor a bit as well.  If he sees 15 carries and catches a few balls, I think we can get a 4X game out of him.

 

WR:

Allen Robinson, $7,700.  A revenge game for Robinson, but even more importantly he has been on fire this year and the Jags secondary is awful. AROB has seen 9+ targets in ten games this season and if he sees that much volume in this game it will be a huge one for him.  I already talked about liking Trubisky, so the stack along with AROB makes sense.  He is currently listed as questionable, but expected to play, just make sure.

Keenan Allen, $7,500.  If Allen is healthy (and that is the key) then we are getting a good price for a target monster against a decimated secondary in the Broncos.  He has had 10 days of rest coming off a Thursday night game in which he played clearly hobbled only 30% of the snaps.  Before that game he had seen 51 targets in the previous four games, which is unbelievable.  Folks might be hesitant to roster him after last week, which might make him a contrarian play.

Rashard Higgins, $4,800.  Emerging as a top receiver in OBJ’s absence Higgins has caught 16 balls the last three weeks on 24 targets. This weeks he gets the putrid Jets secondary that has allowed the third most passing yards per game (279). I also like Landry, but he is more than $2k more expensive than Higgins and I think Higgins has just as high of a ceiling.

Tee Higgins, $4,700.  A quiet week for Higgins last week as Gio Bernard was busy running over the Steelers, but before that Higgins had caught at least five balls in three straight.  Higgins has averaged 7 target a game this season.  The perimeter corners Vernon Hargreaves and Phillip Gaines both suck bad, so Higgins will be able to eat either up badly.  Tyler Boyd is still in concussion protocol and has not practiced, making him highly questionable and if he is out, then Higgins would get even more targets.

Michael Gallup, $4,100.  A tremendous match-up for Gallup as Darius Slay will likely be shadowing Amari Cooper, leaving the other perimeter corner Michael Jacquet, who has been overmatched on Gallup.  Gallup has double digit DK points in three of his last four games, including a 21 point outburst against Baltimore.  He also had 13.1 points against the Eagles their first go around. I like a Dalton/Gallup stack which would save us a ton of money to utilize elsewhere.

 

TE:

Logan Thomas, $4,900.  His price has climbed dramatically from $3,100 just a few weeks ago.  With the amount of targets he is seeing though (31 the last three games), I think $4,900 is still a good price.  The Panthers have given up the 8^th most DK points to tight ends this season.

Dallas Goedert, $3,600.  Zach Ertz is back, but Goedert is still better and continues to get a steady amount of targets- 7, 6, and 8 the last three games.  Super cheap and could be used as a decent game stack along with Dalton or Hurts.

Austin Hooper, $3,500.  Hooper returned strong last week from injury with 5/41/1 on six targets.  In a hot offense with a hot quarterback against the team that has given up the most DK points to tight ends, $3,500 seems like a no-brainer.

 

DEF:

Chiefs, $3,400.  This is about the most I am willing to pay up at defense this week.  A big home favorite, the Falcons will be playing from behind most of this one and in his last two road games Matt Ryan has thrown 5 interceptions.  A really nice opportunity for a defensive score in this one and with Mecole Hardman returning kicks, there always exists the possibility of a return score.

Washington, $3,000.  Double digit DK points in three of their last five games.  The Panthers have been an awful team and Washington is a home favorite.

Seahawks, $2,600.  A horrible unit early in the year, has turned things around and I have been using them a ton of over the last month in which they have put up 9 DK points three times and 12 the other.  They have stopped the run all year, but now they are limiting the pass as well.  They are also pressuring the quarterback (15 sacks the last 4 games), which is bad news for mistake ridden Goff.  Cam Akers is out, which leaves the Rams run game depleted as well.