Jeff’s Hardcore Core- NFL Main Slate Week 17

Favorite Game Stacks:

Cardinals @ Cowboys o/u = 51

Chiefs @ Bengals o/u = 51

 

QB:

Joe Burrow, $6,900

• We won’t get a low owned Burrow this week like we did last week (only 12% owned across most GPPs).
• This kid is a phenom and he showed why I have been so high on him all season last week throwing for 525/4.
• Chiefs have allowed the 6^th most DK points to opposing QBs and this game has possible shootout potential.

Justin Herbert, $6,800

• Not one of his better games last week (336/1), but he has responded with big games after most every dud he has had this season.
• First game vs DEN he threw for 303/2 with 36 rushing yards.
• Hasn’t had less than 21 DK points in any of his last six games.
• Back home this week in an important game for the Chargers against a checked out Denver team.

Dak Prescott, $6,700

• Has been amazing at home this year having not thrown for less than 2 TDs in any game (20 in 7 home games).
• Coming off a 330 yard, 4 TD performance last week at home.
• Cardinals have been a shell of the team they were at the start of the year and the defense is getting torched lately, having given up 82 points over the last three games.
• I like stacking Dak with just about any of his pass catchers in this game.

If Jimmy G is out (he has not practiced yet this week), then Trey Lance, $4,800 becomes your best value of the week, although he will no doubt carry heavy ownership.  A home game vs the Texans, Lance has the a monster ceiling with his rushing ability.  Keep an eye on the injury report and if Jimmy G is out and you want to pay way down at QB to load up elsewhere, this is a great opportunity.

 

RB:

Jonathan Taylor, $9,000

• There are so many good value options at the RB position this week, but you cannot ignore the smash spot that Taylor has as a home favorite with Carson Wentz out.
• Taylor has not seen less than 27 carries in his last three games.
• The Raiders rank 5^th worst vs the run this season and have allowed the 3^rd most DK points per game to RBs.

David Montgomery, $6,500

• I went with Montgomery in what I though would be a bit of a contrarian play last week and he delivered a nice 23.6 DK point performance.
• This week should be a prime spot for him to see massive volume as a home favorite in frigid conditions.
• The Giants defense has been truly awful this season and allow the 8^th most DK points to RBs.

Ronald Jones, $6,300

• Wasn’t as good as we were hoping last week (16.1 DK points) even though he had 20 carries and three targets.
• I am not giving up however with Fournette out, even though Jones is not near the pass catcher as Fournette, Brady is always going to throw to his back.
• The Jets defense is so atrocious that I want exposure to everybody opposing them.
• Ke’Shawn Vaughn scored for the Bucs last week, but he only took 7 carries from Jones, so I will stick with the bellcow.

Rashaad Penny, $6,100

• I have to say that I did not predict the output that we have seen from Penny two of the last three weeks.
• The Seahawks have made it clear that he is their guy and fed him 44 carries the last three weeks.
• The Lions rank 6^th worst vs the run DVOA and have allowed the 6^th most DK points.
• A home favorite with a positive game script could mean 20+ carries for Penny this week.

Sony Michel, $5,800

• Has become the Rams bellcow back the last four weeks (89 carries). Now there isn’t even a threat of losing carries as Henderson was sent to IR.
• Any back with that type of volume on this explosive offense is huge and this is a cheap price.
• The Ravens have been fine against the run this year, but they did allow two scores to Joe Mixon last week in the drubbing the Bengals put on them.

James Conner has not participated in practice yet this week and it is unclear whether he will play.  If he is out, then we need to own some shares of Chase Edmonds, who was outstanding last week with 127 total yards, 8 catches, and a TD.  I like game stacking this game and Edmonds would be a nice fit in that game stack if Conner is out and he is the bellcow again.

 

WR:

Cooper Kupp, $9,500

• I have to say that I will certainly be underweight the field as I wont have a ton of exposure because the price tag is so huge, but it is tough to not include the record breaking WR with an insane 132 catches for over 1,700 yards and 14 tds going up against a secondary that allowed 525 passing yards last week.

Jaylen Waddle, $6,700

• Will likely be popular at this price coming off a huge Monday night effort where he went 10/92/1 on 12 targets.
• Titans rank 3^rd worst vs the pass DVOA and have allowed the 2^nd most DK points to opposing WRs.

Amari Cooper, $6,600

• I really like the Cowboys this week to continue their offensive rampage at home. Cooper and Gallup have an outstanding match-up on the perimeter against the beat up Cardinal secondary.
• Cooper is coming off a 7/85/1 on 11 target performance last week and should see heavy volume this week as well.
• He is not cheap, but I like either him, Gallup or Schultz to combine with Dak.

Antonio Brown, $6,100

• Very chalky last week with both Godwin and Evans out. This week I would expect similar even though Evans should be back.
• Brown went 10/101 on 15 targets last week and although Evans will cut into the volume a bit, he should still see double digits.
• The Jets are so bad defensively (5^th worst vs the pass DVOA).

Brandin Cooks, $6,000

• Arguably one of the very best cornerback matchups this week vs a beat up 49ers secondary who will have Josh Norman and Ambry Thomas manning the perimeter.
• Cooks is coming off the covid list, but before that he had two straight 100+ yard games with 21 targets.
• Davis Mills has been solid and he has been looking for Cooks.
• Good game script for heavy volume for Cooks with the Texans being a road underdog.

Amon-Ra St Brown, $6,000

• A great match-up vs Seahawk slot corner Ugochukwu Amadi
• St Brown has been seeing massive volume (46 targets the last four weeks) and putting up monster numbers (22 DK points per game the last four weeks).
• Lions should be throwing a lot in this one as a road underdog.

Michael Gallup, $4,800

• Not great numbers this season or even recently for Gallup, but he is significantly cheaper than Lamb or Cooper and I like his cornerback match-up.
• The Cardinals secondary has dealt with injuries and have allowed the second most DK points to WRs the last month. Rober Alford is out, so Gallup will see Marco Wilson and Antonio Hamilton, while Lamb has a slightly tougher matchup with Byron Murphy in the slot.
• I would guess he will be lightly owned with his most recent performances, but he is a great way to get exposure to a Cowboy offense that I really like this week for a cheap price.

Braxton Berrios, $3,700

• I owned Berrios last week, because of the cheap $3,500 price and he paid us off with 15 DK points.
• With Elijah Moore out and Crowder doubtful, Berrios remains option #1 for the Jets passing game and you don’t get many #1s for that price.
• Also, can give us a boost as a special teamer as we did last week with a return TD.

 

TE:

Zach Ertz, $5,200

• Not even listed as questionable this week as he practiced in full on Thursday.
• Has been the Cardinals highest volume pass catcher the last two weeks with Hopkins out (24 targets).
• 8/54 last week and 6/74 two weeks ago.
• I see this game being high scoring and the Cowboys exploding on offense. That will leave the Cardinals needing to throw the ball and the Cowboys corners have been good, so Ertz could see big volume.
• I like stacking Dak with a Cowboy pass catcher or two and running it back with Ertz.

Dallas Goedert, $5,100

• Even after a complete dud last week, I would expect Goedert to still have owners this week as he has been one of the better TEs in the league this year.
• Had a monster 7/135 on 9 targets two weeks ago against Washington.

Dalton Schultz, $5,000

• In addition to Gallup, Schultz is another cheaper way to gain exposure to the Cowboys offense this week against a broken Cardinals defense lately
• Two straight 8-catch games where he has seen 17 targets and found the endzone in each game.
• I like stacking him with Dak this week.

 

DEF:

Bills, $3,500

• I prefer paying down for defenses, but the lower priced options this week are not desirable.
• The temp is going to be low in Buffalo and the Bills are a two touchdown favorite.
• There should be a ton of turnover opportunities from a dome team playing outside in January.

Bears, $3,200

• Basically the Giants offense is a trainwreck as they trotted out Fromm and Glennon last week to make asses of themselves.
• A 7-point home favorite in really cold conditions, the Giants will have big time problems scoring.

Colts, $2,800

• A 7-point home favorite, the Colts Def has been decent at home at least from a fantasy perspective. They average 8.7 DK points per game.
• The Raiders offense has allowed 9, 7, and 24 DK points to opposing defenses the last three weeks.
• My favorite Def in the $2k range this week.