Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Saturday Slate (Cowboys @ Eagles / Chiefs @ Broncos

Cowboys (-6.5) @ Eagles, o/u= 43

Chiefs (-10) @ Broncos, o/u= 45

Notes:

With two game slates, be sure to build game scripts/game flow in your head and build your rosters around those outcomes, just as we do with Showdown Slates.  The spread and game totals are often a good indication as to the direction games might go.  I like the idea of loading up on Chiefs, but also parts of the Broncos passing game.  If the Chiefs get up big, then I am not sure how much volume the Broncos backs will see, especially if they both play and split the carries.  We have some decent options to pay down in certain spots because of injuries/covid.  This will allow us to roster more of the high priced guys like Hill and Kelce who have high ceilings.

 

QB:

Patrick Mahomes, $7,500

• Last year and this year has not been able to put up a monster game against the Broncos (200/1 and 318/1 last year and 184/0 this year).
• Has heated up lately with at least 250 yards and 2 TDs in each of his last four games.
• Hard to ignore on a 2-game slate.

Drew Lock, $5,300

• Listed as questionable, but practiced Wednesday and looks like he is going to start in place of Teddy who is on IR.
• Game script favors the need for Lock to air it out as a large underdog at home.
• I really like the option to pay way down here, as Mahomes has struggled against the Broncos lately and Prescott has struggled on the road this season. If both of those guys (who will carry a ton of ownership between them) put up mediocre or dud games, it will give us a nice edge  and allow us to pay up elsewhere.

 

RB:

Ezekiel Elliott, $6,700

• Zeke has been a bust this year, but I think we have a chance to gain value from him this week.
• Tony Pollard has taken a bunch of volume from Zeke this year (and rightfully so), but Pollard is listed as questionable and has been hobbled by a torn fascia. This might result in Zeke seeing a bit more volume this week.
• Cowboys are a heavy favorite so game script favors more run game and Dak has struggled on the road this year.
• Philly is nothing special against the run, ranking 16^th DVOA, allowing the 11^th most DK points to RBs and a monster game to Zeke in week 3 (95/2)

Darrel Williams, $5,900

• Huge week last week (107 total yards and 2 TDs)
• Edwards Helaire has not practiced at all this week, and appears he will not play. If he is out, then Williams becomes a terrific option with a great game script.

Kenneth Gainwell, $4,100

• Miles Sanders is extremely doubtful. Boston Scott and Jordan Howard have both landed on the covid list.  That leaves only Gainwell.
• The Cowboys have limited DK points to opposing RBs, but they only rank 18^th DVOA against the run.
• The Eagles rely so much on the run and give their backs a ton of goaline carries, plus Gainwell is a solid pass catcher, so even if the Eagles fall behind he will still be fine.

 

WR:

Tyreek Hill, $8,000

• A total rollercoaster this season with games with 30+ DK points and others with single digits like week 16. Only 6/40 last week.
• Tough to ignore on a 2-game slate, especially considering the other options at WR on this slate.

Devonta Smith, $6,100

• Not a bad matchup on the perimeter against Diggs and/or Anthony Brown.
• Cowboys have allowed the 9^th most DK points to WRs this season and Smith is the Eagles #1.
• Has not been amazing lately, but with the expected game script and lack of RB options, the Eagles might be passing more.

Jerry Jeudy, $5,100

• A positive match-up in the slot where Jeudy plays primarily against L’Jarius Sneed.
• The Broncos should be playing with a negative game script and Jeudy should see decent volume.

Cedrick Wilson, $4,200

• Eagles have been tough vs the pass allowing the 2^nd least amount of DK points to opposing receivers.
• With Gallup out, Lamb should play primarily on the perimeter and either he or Cooper should see coverage from Darius Slay.
• Wilson although not an easy match-up against Avonte Maddox, is better than having Slay on his ass.
• Wilson found the endzone in their first game vs the Eagles this season.

Byron Pringle, $3,900

• An uptick in targets lately (15 the last 3 games).
• If we think it will be a Chief onslaught, we might want to stack Chiefs offensive players and this would be the best cheap option.

 

TE:

Travis Kelce, $7,000

• If we pay down at QB and snatch up a couple other cheap RB/WRs we should have plenty of cap space for Kelce.
• A poor game against the Broncos in week 13 (like the rest of the Chiefs), but he gets the most TE targets of anybody on this slate (20 the last two weeks).

Dalton Schultz, $5,300

• With the Eagles secondary being so tough, Prescott might lean on Schultz more (as he has the past three weeks (27 targets).
• In week 3 Schultz he had a monster game against the Eagles (6/80/2)
• I am ok using Schultz in the FLEX spot for this week with Kelce at TE.

 

DEF:

Chiefs, $3,100

• Broncos are depleted and likely check out, so even though they are at home, I think the Chiefs should have their way with them.
• With such a negative game script, they will be forced to pass, which might result in sacks and turnovers.

Cowboys, $2,900

• I also like the Eagles defense as well if we need the cap space, but the Cowboys will likely be in the lead putting the game script in favor of the Cowboys Def.
• Cowboys Def put up 14 DK points in week 3 vs these Eagles, but it was at home.
• Outside of last week, they have been an excellent fantasy defense with four double digit DK point weeks before that.