Jeff’s Hardcore Core- Week 16 Main Slate

Favorite Game Stacks:

Rams @ Vikings o/u 49

Colts @ Cardinals o/u 49

Jags @ Jets o/u 41. A low game total, but both defenses are atrocious.  It is not a slam dunk, but I will be game stacking a few rosters.  Certainly, a contrarian play.

 

QB:

Justin Herbert, $7,200

• MVP front runner has demonstrated a high ceiling consistently the last five weeks with his lowest output being 24 K points.
• The Chargers should be able to do whatever they want against the Texans. My only concern is they get up too much, but Herbert has still been able to put up big numbers in blowouts this season.

Matthew Stafford, $6,700

• Despite the inept Bears offense not being able to do anything against the Viking secondary or defense, they still suck.
• The Vikings have enough offense to hang with the Rams, which could make this a back and forth shootout.
• Vikings have allowed the 2^nd most DK points to QBs
• Stafford has been hot lately, throwing at least 2 Tds in each of his past four games.
• I love stacking this game.

Jalen Hurts, $6,400

• Had a really nice Jalen Hurts type game in his return from injury on Monday night with 2 rushing TDs.
• The Eagles offense has been clicking nicely and it was good to see that continue with Hurts at the helm last week.
• The Giants have been mediocre at stopping the pass, but Hurts running ability gives him such a monster ceiling.
• Vegas is expecting Philly to win this one going away.

Joe Burrow, $5,900

• This is not the Baltimore Ravens defense of old. They rank 4^th worst vs the pass DVOA this season.
• In their first meeting Burrow put up 416 yards and 3 TDs for 30.6 DK points and that was in Baltimore.
• Aaron Rodgers just got done smoking the Ravens secondary for 268/3 last week.
• $5,900 is a great price for what Joe could do to the Ravens this week.

 

RB:

Austin Ekeler, $8,100  -or- Justin Jackson $4,200

• His status is up in the air like most everybody else in the league this week, but if he can get off the covid list, he is in a smash spot.
• Texans have allowed the 6^th most DK points to RBs and the Chargers have a positive game script (10 point favorites).
• I would even be willing to own Herbert and Ekeler on the same roster.
• If Ekeler is inactive, then in steps Jackson who would become the bellcow and at a dirt cheap price. He went 13/86 last week.
•  Either way I will own a Chargers back.

Alex Mattison, $6,800

• I seem to be one of the few folks who thinks the Vikings lose very little going from Cook to Mattison.
• Most every time Mattison steps in he delivers.
• The last time he did he put up 22/90/1 and caught 3 balls.

James Robinson $5,900

• I loaded up on JROB last week against a bad Texans defense. He went for 75/1.
• This week he gets a worse defense in the Jets who rank dead last in stopping the run DVOA and have allowed the most DK points to RBs.
• With Urban the cancer gone, he saw more carries than he has since week 5 (18).
• He hasn’t practiced this week, but that has been common for him.

David Montgomery, $5,700

• The Bears offense is so piss poor, but Montgomery continues to get volume. (18 carries last week and 6 targets).
• Seahawks have allowed the 2^nd most DK points to RBs and allowed 115 to Michel/Henderson last week.
• Montgomery is not game script dependent and he is on the field almost all of the time for the Bears.

Ronald Jones, $5,100

• Fournette is doubtful and looking like he wont play, so Jones steps right in as the lead back.
• He should get the massive amount of passing game work that Fournette has.
• 10-point favorite should result in a ton of carries for Jones.

 

WR:

Cooper Kupp, $9,100

• Chalk play of the week, but it seems difficult to get away from him.
• 29+ DK points in each of his last three games.
• Just a monstrous year with 122 catches, 1,625 yards, 14 TDs.
• Indoor conditions, Vikings secondary is awful, Kupp will feast.

Ja’Marr Chase, $7,100

• With his 1 catch dud last week, this could end up being a contrarian play, but I like the Bengals to be able to push the ball and score on the Ravens defense.
• In their first meeting he went for 8/201/1.
• I like a Burrow/Chase stack, which might not be a popular stack this week.

Russell Gage, $5,900

• 30 targets the last three games, has become Matt Ryan’s favorite target
• The Lions are the 7^th worst vs the pass DVOA this season.

Marquise Brown,$5,800

• Not as hot as he was at the start of the season, but I like the possibility of a shootout in this game and Brown is the top wide receiving weapon.
• 5/80/1 vs the Bengals in their first meeting in week 7.
• I like a game stack with Burrow/Chase/Brown

Antonio Brown, $4,900

• Returned to practice early in the week, should be a prime target with Godwin out and Evans hobbled.
• Was averaging more than 8 targets per game before his injury.
• Will be popular this week at this price, but his upside is so high.

Other I will own as well:

G Davis $4,700

Bateman $4,500

Treadwell $3,500

 

TE:

Travis Kelce, $7,300

• It is unclear whether he will be able to come off the covid-19 list, so be sure to monitor, but if he does, he has a high ceiling in this game. That could be even greater if he is able to come off the list and Tyreek Hill is not.  His volume would skyrocket.
• Coming off a monster 10/191/2 effort last week.

Rob Gronkowski, $6,200

• Only caught two balls last week in his worst game in a month, but he had 11 targets.
• He has had 8 or more targets in each of his last five games.
• With Godwin and Fournette out, Brady is missing two of his favorite targets, so Gronk should see increased volume.

Jared Cook, $3,500

• Parham is doubtful, which would mean more playing time and likely targets for Cook.
• He hasn’t had big production this season, but he does have 12 targets the last two weeks.

CJ Uzomah, $3,000

• Huge punt play, but if he can catch a few balls and sneak into the endzone he will produce value and save us a ton of cap.
• Had his best game of the year against the Ravens in week 7 when he went 3/91/2
• Ravens have allowed the 5^th most DK points to TEs this season.

Cole Kmet, $3,300 is also a possible punt play at tight end as well.

 

DEF:

Seahawks $3,000

• Bottom line, the Bears offense is a disaster. The Vikings defense shut the down, which says everything.
• A 7-point, home favorite should have the Bears needing to put the ball in the air and that is not a good thing.

Jets and Jaguars, $2,700

• Both teams suck really bad on defense. However, they both suck on offense as well.
• This is a rare game that I am stacking some rosters with offensive players, but also utilizing both defenses.
• I am just not sure what side of the ball will suck worse for these two teams.

Falcons, $2,600

• The big catalyst here is Jared Goff is looking doubtful to play, which means Tim Boyle would be the Lions quarterback. Enough said.