Jeff’s Proposition Bets 2022
Yet another year of NFL football is upon us, and we are super excited here at Footballinsideredge.com. Thank you for being such a loyal member of both this site and Fantasygolfinsider.com, we truly appreciate you. We are so glad to be able to offer you a high-quality product that helps you be successful playing fantasy football and saves you time with your research. This is now the 4th edition of this article and it is probably the most popular one I write all year and also probably the most successful and profitable. I have listed my results below for the first three editions of this article. I will likely add a couple more bets before the first week, but I wanted to get these in your hands because the lines are continuously moving fast. I have already had to change a few because the lines moved since I wrote a couple prop bets up. Be sure to shop around different sportsbooks for the best options and price. It might take a little time, but a few yards either way can make a huge difference with a prop bet. I hope this season is as successful as prior years. Best of luck this year my friends!
2021 Player Props: 9-2
Amari Cooper under 1,200.5 receiving yards WIN!!!
Stefon Diggs under 1,350.5 receiving yards WIN!!!
Jared Goff under 4,100.5 passing yards WIN!!!
Joe Burrow over 26 passing touchdowns WIN!!!
Ben Roethlisberger under 4,050.5 passing yards WIN!!!
Antonio Gibson over 1,025.5 yards WIN!!!
Sam Darnold under 23 passing touchdowns WIN!!!
Brandon Aiyuk over 825.5 receiving yards WIN!!!
Kenny Golladay under 1,025.5 receiving yards WIN!!!
Zack Moss over 5.5 Touchdowns LOSS
Leonard Fournette under 650.5 rushing yards LOSS
Team Totals: 1-1-1
Vikings under 9.5 wins WIN!!!
Chargers over 9 wins PUSH
Browns over 10.5 wins LOSS
2020 Player Props: 7-2
Devante Parker under 1,090.5 rec yds WIN!!!
Cam Newton under 3,650 pass yds WIN!!!
Julio Jones under 1,349.5 rec yds WIN!!!
Ezekiel Eliiott under 1,275.5 rush yds WIN!!!
Baker Mayfield over 24.5 pass tds WIN!!!
Allen Robinson under 1,099.5 rec yards LOSS
Mike Gesicki over 4.5 tds WIN!!!
Adam Thielen under 1,150.5 rec yards WIN!!!
Kenny Golladay over 7.5 rec tds LOSS
Team Totals: 3-0
Cleveland Browns over 8 wins -160 WIN!!!
Oakland Raiders over 6.5 wins -176 WIN!!!
Houston Texans under 8.5 wins -163 WIN!!!
2019 Player Props: 8-2
Drew Brees under 4,199.5 pass yds WIN!!!
Antonio Brown under 9.5 touchdowns WIN!!!
Keenan Allen under 1,230.5 rec yards WIN!!!
Adam Theilen under 1,075.5 rec yards WIN!!!
Jameis Winston over 26.5 passing touchdowns WIN!!!
Saquon Barkley under 1,350.5 rush yds WIN!!!
John Brown over 625.5 rec yards WIN!!!
Jimmy Garoppolo under 3,999 pass yds WIN!!!
Alvin Kamara over 949.5 rush yds Loss
Michael Thomas under 1,275.5 rec yds Loss
Team Totals: 3-0
Falcons under 9.5 wins -173 Win!!!
New York Jets over 6.5 wins -212 Win!!!
Minnesota Vikings over 8 wins -189 Win!!!
You will notice that the majority of my bets every year lean toward the under. The reason for that is the sportsbooks tend to put those lines on the high end because people like to bet on and cheer for success. People want to bet on the over in game totals, because they want to bet on scoring. It is just more fun! Just like with game totals, season long props are pushed up for that very reason. Fans want to cheer for their guy throughout the year, because it is fun and thus they bet on the over for their props. This is why so many of the lines get pushed up. For example: I love, love, love Justin Herbert coming into this year (and I am clearly not the only one) but his prop numbers are astronomical. There are a lot of Herbert fans and thus I cannot bet on the numbers available.
In addition to the masses pushing game totals up, in football we also have the high probability of injury. Nothing can put a damper on hitting season long over prop bets like a player missing a couple weeks of the season (or more). It does not even necessarily the individual player that could be injured. How about teammates. If Justin Herbert goes down with an injury, do you think Keenan Allen or Mike Williams stats might be impacted if they were now catching balls from Chase Daniel? You bet. Pass catchers are extremely reliant upon their quarterback. Even a runningback could be negatively impacted if their starting quarterback (or even key offensive lineman) goes down. For these reasons most every year the majority of my season long bets side on the under.
If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, congratulations. I unfortunately do not have that privilege, so I only have a few choices of sportsbooks that I can place wagers on. For that reason, you will be able to get more generous lines at the sportsbooks that are available to you, which I encourage you to do so. Shop around, do not be content with just taking the first offer you see. I bounce between Drafkings sportsbook to Fanduel to Bovada to BET365 to BETUS and see some dramatic differences. There are good numbers to be had and likely even better than I list below, if you look hard.
Let’s get to the picks-
2022 Results – 9-4 (with a very live OPOY ticket on Justin Jefferson still pending)
Michael Thomas under 825.5 receiving yards. Do you remember the Michael Thomas that caught 149 balls for 1,725 yards and 9 Tds in 2019. Well this is not that Michael Thomas. Now three years after that amazing season (with Drew Brees), Thomas is a shell of his former self having dealt with a plethora of lower body injuries, including a hamstring most recently. Its tough to even take anything from the last time he played football back in 2020. I am not sure he even wants to be playing football. You do not just take off a year and a half and jump right back into the NFL. The Saints are far from confident in Thomas as shown by their acquisition of possession receiver Jarvis Landry in the offseason and their first round pick of Chris Olave. Thomas is not going to have near the target share as he did back when we saw him last and he was being peppered with targets. This does not even bring into the fact that Jameis Winston is dealing with his own nagging injuries. I would be surprised if he makes it through the season and if he does not, then Thomas is reliant on the one, the only Andy Dalton. So many things can go wrong for Thomas this year and I want to be a part of it. WIN
David Montgomery under 850.5 rushing yards. The number is not necessarily lofty, but I am extremely down on not only Montgomery, but the Bears offense in general. Pro Football Focus has the Bears offensive line ranked #31 coming into the season. Montgomery posted two 100-yard games in his first four games last season and not one after that. His production went progressively down and it just so coincides with Justin Fields passing increasing as the year went on. Throughout the summer Montgomery has been reported to be dealing with an “undisclosed injury” and that has opened the door for back-up Khalil Herbert who is getting great reviews in the preseason. This is the final year of Montgomery’s contract and there is no reason to believe the Bears will have him back next year. Herbert is going to eat a lot into Montgomery’s carries. Montgomery averaged a lowly 3.7 per carry last year. Lots of outs with this bet with the Bears offensive line sucking and Montgomery just being inefficient, Herbert taking over, or Montgomery just being out with nagging injuries. This prop number is available on BETUS. WIN
Stefon Diggs under 1,200.5 receiving yards. I am going back to the well on this one as I won my prop last year betting against Diggs (under 1,350.5). He did have 1,225 receiving yards last year, which would be enough to win this year, but most of that damage was done in the start of the year (only 475 yards in his last 8 games). Some of that is due to the emergence of fellow wide receiver Gabriel Davis who had only 20 targets in the first nine weeks, but 43 in the last nine weeks. Davis is rumored to be even more a part of the offense and this year for the entire year. Also realize that Diggs needed all 17 games to hit that mark last season as well and being he is in his 8th season, not missing any games during the year becomes less likely. The Bills no doubt have a tremendous offense, but it sounds like they are going to put more emphasis on the running game this season and that was further proven by them adding James Cook. The 1,200.5 number is consistent through most every sportsbook I found. LOSS
Allen Lazard over 5.5 TD receptions (-120). In case you have not heard, Davante Adams is no longer a Green Bay Packer. By the way, neither is Marquez Valdes Scantling. Between the two of them they accounted for 40 redzone targets and 14 TDs last year, The Packers brough in Sammy Watkins and drafted Christian Watson, but I tend to believe Rodgers is going to gravitate toward a guy who he has already worked with in the past (Lazard had 13 redzone targets last year). If you have watched Rodgers throughout his career you know that he throws more than any other quarterback (other than Brady), near the goaline. Lazard is 6’5” and 227 lbs,and provides a big target inside the redzone. Robert Tonyan might not even be ready to start the season either. Lazard is clearly the Packers #1 guy heading into the season and Rodgers has always peppered his top guy. -120 is available on Draftkings sportsbook and it is also available on Bovada, but just a higher price (-150). WIN
Diontae Johnson under 1,000.5 receiving yards. 1,161 receiving yards last year, but that was with playing 16 games and being absolutely being force fed 169 targets by Ben Roethlisberger. It was a career high for Johnson, but things are different this year. Welcome to the Mitchell Trubisky era who will start the season as the Steelers quarterback (who knows if he will finish it). The Steelers have the #30 ranked offensive line according to Pro Football Focus, so whether it is Trubisky or Mason Rudolph, they aren’t going to have much time to get the ball downfield, which really is not Johnson’s strength anyway. Johnson averaged only 6.87 per target last year, which ranked him 102nd in the NFL. If you cut the massive amount of 169 targets down to just 145 (which is still high) he doesn’t hit this number. One more thing in our favor and that is the Steelers brought in stud receiver George Pickens who has been tearing it up in the preseason. That is only going to cut further into Johnson’s targets. This number has been on and off on BETUS and currently on Draftkings. WIN
Javonte Williams over 945.5 rushing yards. In a complete time share in the Denver backfield last year (both Williams and Melvin Gordon with 203 carries), Williams posted 903 rushing yards. It is widely expected that Williams gets the nod as lead back this year in his second year and was even admitted by Gordon himself. Both backs averaged 4.4 yards per carry last year, so Williams needs just a bump to 215 carries to eclipse this mark. The Broncos got a monster bump on offense with Russell Wilson now leading the way, which should make them much more efficient overall. Their offensive line remains ranked in the top third in the NFL. With division foes Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs all rank in the bottom 13 teams in rushing yards allowed last year. Barring injury, this is going to be a break-out season for Williams who is uber-talented and is a good spot this year to put up a monster year. I have seen season long rushing yards props for Williams ranging from 945.5 to 950.5 throughout many books. LOSS
Dalvin Cook under 1,175.5 rushing yards. I love the Vikings offense this year, but not necessarily because of Dalvin Cook. The Zimmer regime was blinded by their stubbornness and thought it was mandatory to run on first and second down (usually leaving third and long). This year will be different under Kevin O’Connell who will utilize the Vikings amazing weapons in the passing game and get this offense cooking That being said, I think their offensive line improves a bit, but it needs to come a long way from the disaster it was last year to even be respectable. Cook has always been susceptible to injuries throughout his career. I actually think he is utilized more in the passing game, but that will not affect this number. I have seen 1,175.5 a few places, but even higher others that I unfortunately could not take advantage of. WIN
Leonard Fournette under 8.5 rushing touchdowns. I was looking for a way to bet against Leonard Fournette this season and I think this is the best route. Fournette has not exceeded 8 touchdowns since his rookie season (2017) when he saw a monstrous 268 carries. Tom Brady is notorious for calling his own number around the goaline rather than handing off the ball. The offensive line has seen significant injuries with pro-bowl center Ryan Jensen and left guard Aaron Stinnie this summer as well as just recently Robert Hainsey and Nick Leverett being dinged up as well. When you combine Fournette’s receiving ability, he is more of a factor, but the distinction of this bet is just RUSHING, and does not include receiving. Fournette has not played every game in either of the last two years with the Bucs and the odds are against him doing that as well. Although he has since dropped some weight he came into camp extremely overweight, which also creates questions about his offseason training and the ability for his body to hold up throughout the season. This bet is available on Bovada. WIN
Kyle Pitts over 68.5 receptions. In just his first year in the NFL Kyle Pitts displayed what kind of freak of nature he is with 68 catches for 1,026 yards. I am not convinced the Falcons offense will be effective at all this season (7th worst in scoring last year, 4th least yards per game, and #28 ranked offensive line this season), so I can’t guarantee Pitts yardage or scoring, but I can guarantee he will be force fed the ball. With passing game weapons that include Bryan Edwards, Olamide Zaccheaus, and rookie Drake London, it is hard to imagine Pitts seeing less than 8 targets a game, which would be nearly two more per game than last year. Pitts caught 68 balls last year on 110 targets.. No doubt the Falcons will be behind in most every game this season and needing to throw the ball. 6’6” and 246 lbs, yet runs a 4.4 forty. This number is available at Draftkings sportsbook at -130. It is also available between this number and 70.5 at both Bovada and BETUS. Shop around and get the lowest number you can, but I think he surpasses all of them. LOSS
Team Bets:
Philadelphia Eagles over 9.5 (-160) wins and to win the NFC East +155. Not only do I like the prospects for improvement on the Philly end this year, I really despise the rest of the division. First let’s talk about the Eagles. Jalen Hurts was much improved last year from what he showed in 2020, although he will need to continue to improve in many aspects, including his 61% completion percentage. It seems doable when you consider how good his offensive line is (#1 ranked by Pro Football Focus) and the addition of elite receiver AJ Brown. He has a plethora of weapons at his disposal including Brown, Devonta Smith now in his second year, and Dallas Goedert. I am not sure if Miles Sanders can remain healthy, but Kenny Gainwell has been getting some steam in the preseason even if he doesn’t. The Eagles defense will need to improve as well and they have done that on the defensive line with the additions of Jordan Davis, who should bolster their run defense and Haason Reddick who ranks among the league leaders in qb pressures over the last two years. Now onto the competition, which really only looks like just Dallas this year. The Cowboys have been riddled with injuries this summer, including Tyron Smith who needs surgery, which hurts their offensive line considerably. Michael Gallup is coming off injury and might not be 100% early in the season. Amari Cooper is gone from the offense as well, leaving only CeeDee Lamb (who I like a lot), but defenses should be able to lock down on him at least until Gallup returns. Zeke Elliott is another year older and that much closer to being dust (if he isn’t already). I just think this is the Eagles time to overtake the Boys and we are getting pretty decent odds. I booked this on BETUS, but it is available everywhere. WIN x 2
Chiefs under 10.5 wins (+120). For sure an unpopular pick as they are everybody’s darling (and have gone over 10 wins each of the last four years). This year brings new challenges however. First, they face a hellacious schedule (hardest in the NFL). They have to face the Bills, Rams, at Bucs, at Bengals, at Colts, and that does not even bring into the fact that everybody in the AFC West got better. Russell Wilson is now piloting the Broncos, Davante Adams will help the Raiders offense, and the Chargers bolstered their bad defense, and might actually win a game that Justin Herbert doesn’t have to throw for five tds. The Chiefs have mostly new names on the offense and none that I really think all that highly of. Marquez Valdes Scantling and JuJu Smith Schuster are in no way going to touch what Tyreek Hill brought to this offense. Travis Kelce has been amazing and Mahomes safety net, but without Hill to pull the attention off of Kelce over the middle, things are going to be much more challenging. Plus he is going to be 33 years old in October. Looking at the win totals in this division, things don’t really add up (Chiefs 10.5, Chargers 10.5, Broncos 10, and Raiders 8.5), so something has to give. Mahomes is a legend, but I see a lot of air leaking from the balloon this season and think we need to take advantage of the public keeping this number up where it is. LOSS
Bucs under 11.5 wins (-145). Wow, first I bet against Mahomes and now Brady? I have found that a good theory to go by is bet against the popular opinion and probably not a ton of football fans bet against all-timers, but I will. The Bucs schedule is not as difficult as the Chiefs, especially because the division is quite lackluster, but they do have some tough games against the Packers, Chiefs, Rams, and Bengals. The offense is loaded with question marks as Gronk retired, Godwin is coming back from serious injury, the offensive line has had a rash of injuries, and they have brought in Julio Jones who was complete dust last year. I am not sure it is this year, but one of these years Brady is going to show his age. He has already retired once and then left the team in August, which brings into question whether his heart is still in it. I don’t think the Bucs will collapse this year, but this is too lofty of a number for them. WIN
A few longshots:
Justin Herbert Regular Season MVP +900. The NFL MVP has been won by a quarterback in each of the past 9 years. Herbert took a giant leap forward last year and I think he does again this year. He is an elite talent and a guy I would pick in front of every other QB in the league if I were starting a franchise. The AFC West is going to be highly competitive, but not because of defense. We are going to see some shootouts and Herbert could have a monster year.
Justin Jefferson Offensive Player of the Year +1600. Unlike the MVP award, the Offensive Player of the year does not always go to a QB (only once in the last 5 years). Cooper Kupp won it last year. I am high on Jefferson to have a monster year. Having put up the numbers Jefferson has with Mike Zimmer in control is a modern day miracle. The Vikings offense is due for a breakout and Jefferson’s talent level is off the charts.
Justin Herbert leads the NFL in passing yards and Javonte Williams leads the NFL in rushing yards +11500. This is kind of a fun one to take a stab at for a big payday. I love both players coming into the season and everything would have to fall into place, but its worth a few bucks. It is currently available on BETUS
Mike Williams most receiving touchdowns in the NFL +3300. A 6’4” receiver for arguably the best quarterback and passing attack in the NFL. Caught 9 Tds last season, but Justin Herbert’s TD total this year is an obscene 36.5. I am not sure where all of those are going with Williams TD total being at 7.5 as well as Keenan Allen’s. I think the sportsbooks missed on Williams and you can take the over at even money, which I will be doing, but I like this as a longshot bet. Austin Ekeler had 12 touchdowns last year, but the sportsbooks agree with me that number will regress (8.5 this year). I think the Chargers will be passing more inside the 10 yard line and Williams seems to be the most obvious target.
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