Monday Night Showdown – 2025 Regular Season, Week 15: MIA at PIT

Monday Night Showdown – 2025 Regular Season, Week 15: MIA at PIT

Lines at DK Sportsbook:

O/U: 42.5

Steelers, -3.5

 

2025 DVOA:

MIA: Defense Against the Run: #7 

MIA: Defense Against the Pass: #26

PIT: Defense Against the Run: #17 

PIT: Defense Against the Pass: #11

 

Thoughts:

Tonight’s Dolphins/Steelers clash on MNF pits two teams desperate for a win to try to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Dolphins have rallied back to 6-7 and likely need to win out to have any shot at the final wild card spot while the Steelers need to win in order to stay a full game in front of the surging Baltimore Ravens. This figures to be a lower scoring game as the cold weather and two less than explosive offenses try to grind out long, slow possessions while avoiding any crushing turnovers or mistakes.

The Dolphins have been stingy in stopping the run for most of the season, but the back end of the defense has been an issue. Fortunately for the Fins, the Steelers have not been able to put together the aerial attack that Aaron Rodgers has grown used to throughout his career. Jaylen Warren was added to the injury report today with an illness, but is fully expected to play. Should he cede touches, Kenny Gainwell has been solid as the RB2 in Pittsburgh this season, filling in admirably in his absence. For the Dolphins, the offensive scheme has not been nearly as dynamic with Tyreek Hill being lost for the season with an injury. The downfield passing threat has ground to a halt. Fortunately, De’Von Achane offers explosiveness anytime he touches the ball and has seen his production surge this season, becoming a hybrid RB/WR type of player that lines up all over the field similarly to Christian McCaffrey, but with even more of a burst of speed. One key player not in the starting lineup tonight is TJ Watt who underwent surgery last week to repair a collapsed lung. His absence should lead to Tua having at least a little more time in the pocket than would normally be expected. The waging seems to be mixed this week and I do like the Dolphins at +3.5, but I do give the Steelers a slight edge on the outright, pulling it out with a late field goal to win, 19-17.

 

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$12,800/De’Von Achane – Best player on both sides of the ball with the highest floor and ceiling potential. He was a little banged up this week, but expected to be close to 100% tonight. His usage in the run and passing game will make him the highest owned player and CPT this week.

$9.800/Aaron Rodgers – The Steelers just do not have a lot to offer on offense. He has one decent target in passing game, but Miami is a funnel defense that stuffs the run while giving up plenty of yardage through the air. I suspect Rodgers will be able to post at least modest numbers at home as a favorite.

$10,800/Jaylen Waddle – Without Tyreek Hill, Waddle is the WR1 for the Dolphins. While I am annoyed that his targets have not received a noticeable bump, he is still the third highest point projection in my model this week.

$9,400/DK Metcalf – DK is a feast or famine play at WR, but is coming off of his best game of the season where he went for a 12/7/148/0 stat line against the Ravens. Unfortunately, he has also been held to single digit DK points in four of his previous six games so I would plan to layer him in strategically in the CPT position.

 

Moderate Usage:

$9,600/Tua Tagovailoa – Few QBs have been more disappointing than Tua this season. Though he has avoided further concussions, his production numbers have been abysmal and he is enjoying the lowest QB ratings of his career by far. He has only eclipsed 20 DK points in three games this season so I will be underweight shares on Tua.

$9,000/Jaylen Warren – Listed as questionable with an illness, Warren is expected to play, but these late adds to the injury report drive me crazy. This feels a lot like the 49ers adding CMC on Saturday. Though he still had decent usage, it was not the same as his normal workload. I would expect more of a split backfield RBBC experience for the Steelers this week.

$7,000/Kenny Gainwell – I do not love the price here for Gainwell, but we are likely to see a little more usage than normal with Warren dealing with an illness. What I do like is that Gainwell is heavily involved in the passing game as the Steelers are lacking in that area which means that 5-7 targets are not out of the question. Look for Gainwell to see 30-40 snaps tonight.

$3,400/Darren Waller – We have not seen a lot of Waller since returning from injury, but in the early part of the season, he showed flashes of his former greatness catching three TDs in his first two games back from retirement. He is a freak athlete and when he is healthy, he operates as a TE/WR type of threat that only a few other players in the league can match.

$4,000/Steelers DST – The game has the potential to turn into an absolute grind. If that ends up being the case, the Steelers are the defense that likely benefits with the Dolphins being a suboptimal cold weather squad and the Dolphins struggling to protect Tua who has been turnover prone all season.

$5,400/Chris Boswell – Nobody deals with the winds in Pittsburgh better than long time veteran Chris Boswell. This is a huge advantage, especially in these December games when the weather is cold and unpredictable.

$5,000/Riley Patterson – I do not see the Dolphins finding the endzone often, if at all tonight. The game has the feel of being a kicker and defense type of optimal lineup so I will have some exposure to Patterson.

 

Punts

$3,600/Miami DST – 

$5,800/Malik Washington – 

$3,800/Calvin Austin – 

$6,800/Jaylen Wright –

$4,800/Ollie Gordon –

$2,600/Darnell Washington –

$1,600/Greg Dulcich –