Monday Night Showdown – Bills vs Jets

Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 6: BUF @ NYJ
Lines:
O/U: 40.5
Bills, -1.0

2024 DVOA:

BUF: Defense Against the Run: #7 (2023-15th fewest yards allowed per game at 112.2 yards; 2024-7th most yards allowed per game at 144.0 yards).
BUF: Defense Against the Pass: #10

NYJ: Defense Against the Run: #24 (2023-8th most yards allowed per game at 124.0 yards; 2024-14th fewest yards allowed per game at 119.2 yards).
NYJ: Defense Against the Pass: #7

Thoughts:

The extra day might do each of the team’s a bit of good here in this matchup. The key players carrying tags for the offense (Cook/Shakir and Conklin) all look like they will play and should help each team’s outlook. Since the start of 2003, teams that are coming off an in-season coaching change are 22-16 ATS and 17-21 S/U the following week. You would think there would be some kind of boost here, right? That is evidenced by how the line has moved from 2.5 down to 1, and the total has dropped from 43 down to 40.5. Considering how bad some of Hackett’s offensive game plans have looked, I would think the Jets would come out and play hard for the new HC and new OC, while seeming like a different team, at least offensively. Over the last two weeks, the Jets have run 54 pass plays to just 16 rushing plays. That seems likely to end up more balanced here. 6 of the last 8 games in the series were to the under with an average of 39.5 overall, including 3 of the last 4 games in New York. The Jets are 7-4 to the under in the last 11 games at home since the beginning of last season. More curiously, the last 10 teams to have 3 consecutive road games have gone 10-20 and the Bills are coming into this one with a 0-2 record.

This feels like a game where both QBs will show up and produce, in a game that each team really needs here, but I think the running game for both teams will be the deciding factors when all is said and done and keep the game towards the under. As much as I want to side with the Jets straight up, they need a week before things start clicking, so I will call it 20-17, Bills.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:
$11,000/Josh Allen – Holds a 7-4 career mark against the Jets, with 8 of those games resulting in a final score of 10 points or fewer between the two teams. Allen has an average career line of 232 passing yards and 46 rushing yards with a 1.1/1 TD:INT ratio in those games. The Jets have given up a league low 9.1 DK points to opposing QBs so far this season. Allen has scored more than 30+ points in 2 games this season and scored less than 10 in 2 games this season, but some of the latter can be explained by weird game results. Facing the #1 coverage grade in the secondary is not going to help matters after going 0-13 last week on throws of 15+ air yards. Not to mention, the Jets D is pressuring the QB at the 2nd highest rate so far this season. With an elite combo of high production via the air or the ground, he still offers one of the highest and safest floors in the game and one that you need to heavily use in your lineups, even if the ceiling is lower than you would like in this situation.
$10,000/Garrett Wilson – A tough sell with the Bills having allowed the 5th fewest DK points to opposing WR units at 24.8 points per game on an average line of 11/115/0.4. Wilson has received better than 50% of those WR targets thus far and perhaps those numbers could spike even more with the new OC change. Whether it is a spike or a maintain-another-week, if he can put up anything close to last week’s 13/101/1 line from 22 targets, you are going to want to be overweight on him in Captain or Flex.
$9,400/Breece Hall – Through 5 weeks, the Bills have allowed a league-high 33.9 DK points to opposing RB units off a 23/109/0.8 rushing line and a league-high 7/62/0.6 receiving line. I would expect the Jets offensively to scheme more towards getting Hall heavily involved here to take advantage of what the Bills have given up so far. Hall averaged 20+ touches over the team’s first 3 games, while scoring no less than 18.3 DK points per game. He has seen just 12 in each of the team’s last 2 games, while scoring less than 8 DK points in each game. Would expect him to see better than 20 touches in this game to keep the Bills offense off the field. Overweight in Captain and Flex.
$9,000/Aaron Rodgers – With 14 DK points in 3 of the team’s first 5 games, Rodgers has certainly been a useful piece in this offense. The Bills have allowed the 13th fewest DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 16.8 points per game. Ideally, I would expect him to drift back closer to that 30-35 passing attempts per game going forward, with the running game taking over and trying to keep him upright and healthy. He still produced 21 DK points in Week 3’s effort over the Patriots with 2 TDs and from 35 attempts. That would seem to be a ceiling type of game and something similar in this game would still make him worthy of heavy usage in flex or the captain spot.

Moderate Usage:
$10,200/James Cook – The Jets have allowed the 8th fewest DK points to opposing RB units so far this season at 19.8 points per game from a line of 28 touches, 126 yards from scrimmage and 0.4 TDs per game. Cook has eclipsed 13+ DK points in 4 of 5 games this season while averaging 20.25 touches, 108 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD per game. The Jets have held their last 4 opponents to less than 130 yards rushing, with no single RB rushing for more than 80 yards over that stretch. If there is a concern here, it is that he is not healthy and loses work here to Johnson and Davis, but if he is right and the game is close, he may see 25 touches for the first time this season.
$7,200/Allen Lazard – Averaging 6.8 targets and 13.6 DK points per game so far this season. Might find it tough going here as the Bills are allowing the 2nd lowest target share to perimeter WRs through 5 games. However, he leads the team in end zone targets and receiving TDs so far and has scored 10+ DK points in 4 of 5 games. If someone not named Wilson or Hall is going to catch the ball, it is likely to be Lazard.
$5,000/Tyler Bass – The Jets have allowed the 7th most DK points so far this season to opposing kickers at 10.3 points per game. Bass has scored 8 DK points in 4 of 5 games this season. Scored at least 13 DK points in each of the 2 games versus the Jets last season.
$4,600/Bills D/ST – Going to take a shot that perhaps maybe there could be struggles with the Jets offense at some point as the defense tries to shut down the run and dares Rodgers to beat them. The Bills scored at least 5 DK points in each of the two games last season. They have scored double digits in two games already this season, while averaging 8 DK points overall. The Jets have allowed the 9th most DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season at 7.6 points per game. Additionally, the Jets have allowed 8 sacks over the last 2 weeks. There seem to be plenty of ways for the unit to score here.
$4,400/Greg Zuerlein – Made 6 of 8 FGs this season and has scored 6 DK points in each of the team’s last 4 games. Did score 11 points in the season opener against Buffalo last season but was shut out in the 2nd game. The Bills have allowed the 8th fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season at 7.4 points per game.
$4,000/Tyler Conklin – Heads into this game having seen 6 targets in each of the team’s last 3 games and scored at least 11 DK points in 2 of those 3 games. The Bills have allowed the 16th most DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 10.0 points per game from an average line of 5/38/0.2.
$2,800/Curtis Samuel – Has seen at least 3 touches in the team’s last 3 games but has yet to do much with them. If Shakir is out or limited, Samuel should see heavier work in the slot. He ran a route on 2/3rds of Allen’s drop backs last week in a game without Shakir and did not sniff 1 DK point. If he were able to shake off the toe injury during the week, he could easily return fair value. Intrigues a bit, because the Jets have allowed 2 rushing TDs to opposing WRs so far and he is more than capable of doing the same here in the right situation. Usage depends on Shakir. Monitor the inactives before the lock.
$2,400/Mack Hollins – Intrigued by the 6 targets in each of the team’s last 2 games and his 64% route rate in 3-WR set usage last week. Still, he has scored less than 5 DK points in each of the team’s last 4 games and may take more of a back seat again should Shakir prove healthy and play extensively. Cannot forget that the Jets have allowed the 5th fewest DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 24.8 DK points per game from an average line of 9/106/0.4.

The Rest (Lighter Usage):
$5,600/Mike Williams – Ran a season high route rate in 3-WR sets last week on his way to just a 2/25/0 line from 4 targets and 4.5 DK points. The average depth of target is over 10+ yards which carries some appeal, but the sub 10% target share through 5 games at this salary leaves him as a touchdown or bust type of player. Underweight and willing to be wrong.
$5,400/Braelon Allen – If the rumors of a new run-centric game plan are true, then I may have Allen underestimated here and that is with him having seen at least 7 carries in 3 games this season, while scoring at least 9 DK points in 2 games. The Bills’ run defense is allowing the league’s highest yards before contact per attempt and 6th highest explosive run rate. Still, at this salary, he is either going to need heavy yardage and/or a TD to truly prove useful on more than light usage.
$2,000/Marquez Valdes-Scantling – My interest in MVS depends on a lot what happens or does not happen with Shakir. I think Shakir ends up playing, so my MVS shares are more likely deep dart throws on 4-2 Jets builds or Allen-driven Captain builds where he takes 2 pass catchers with him. Has seen at least 2 targets in 3 of 5 games this season. His 15+ yard average depth of target should keep him on your radar.
$1,600/Dalton Knox – As I expect this week’s game to be more competitive, I think Knox will show back up on the radar here this week after going targetless last week for the 2nd time this season. The Jets have allowed the 3rd fewest DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 5.6 points per game, so it may be touchdown or bust to payoff.
$1,200/Jeremy Ruckert – On the chance that Conklin is limited, Ruckert should see some increased looks here and as the TE has not been a heavily featured position, I cannot help but wonder if that changes a bit in the fresh look offense. Ruckert has seen 2 targets in 3 of the team’s first 5 games. Underweight dart throw.
$600/Xavier Gipson – I will take a stab at a share or two due to his special teams play and the fact he has seen 2 targets in 2 of the team’s first 5 games.

Combos I Liked:
C: Allen, Samuel, Valdes-Scantling // Rodgers, Wilson, Hall
C: Allen, Samuel, Knox // Rodgers, Wilson, Hall
C: Wilson, Rodgers, Hall, Conklin // Allen, Knox
C: Wilson, Rodgers, Hall // Allen, R. Davis, Hollins
C: Hall, Rodgers, Wilson // Allen, Samuel, Hollins
C: Hall, Rodgers, Wilson, Zuerlein, Ruckert // Allen
C: Rodgers, Wilson, Hall, Conklin // Allen, Valdes-Scantling
C: Rodgers, Wilson, Hall, Jets D/ST // Allen, Hollins

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!
–Nik (@MrGuruNick)