Monday Night Showdown Slate- Bills @ Patriots

Bills (-7) @ Patriots, Game Total = 46

DVOA
Bills against the run #18
Bills against the pass #15
Patriots against the run #32
Patriots against the pass #16

Overall my roster composition will consist of 5-1 or 4-2 Bills to Patriots as everything points to a Bills one-sided victory and the Patriots have almost zero weapons or high ceiling options.

It is pretty tough to imagine not rostering Josh Allen on a Showdown slate in some capacity.  The Patriots are nowhere near what they have been in the past against Allen defensively or in their secondary as Stephon Gilmore is now out for the season.  Jason McCourty is solid, but not shutdown and Jonathan Jones and JC Jackson are average.  Stefon Diggs continues to get peppered with targets from Allen (37 the last three games). And he is producing (19, 32, and 28 DK points).  In the ills first  meeting with the Pats,  Diggs went 6/92, but did not find the endzone. Carted off the field last week against Denver, but he carries no injury designation into the game.   Gabriel Davis was on a nice roll (16, 15, and 10 DK points) until last weeks 3-pont dud.  He has been getting considerable targets (21 over the last four games), and he is cheap ($5,000), which makes him one of the better less expensive options.  However, John Brown could come off IR and play on Monday night hindering Davis’s playing time.  The Bills released Jake Kumerow, leading us to believe that they expect Brown to play.  If that is the case, Brown could carry in some rust, but he is only $2,800 making him an incredible low dollar option.

Dawson Knox is completely touchdown dependent, but he has been able to score three out of his last four games.  The Patriots are always solid against the tight  and have allowed the 4th fewest  DK points to the tight end position, so I will temper my hopes on Knox, but have a small exposure.

The runningback position for the Bills is very much an equal split.  Devin Singletary is capable of catching balls out of the backfield while Moss has not.  Last week Moss had 13 touches to Singletary’s 11.  Singletary played 53% of the snaps while Moss played 47%.  The Patriots rank dead last in stopping the run and almost 6 yards a carry the last two weeks to the Dolphins and Rams.

For the Patriots offense, Tre’Davious White never covers the slot receiver, so he will likely be on N’Keal Harry most of the game, which makes Harry less desirable than even normal.  The only receiver that is interesting at all is Jakobi Meyers, who has seen 27 targets the last four games, including 10 last week. Last week they faced the Dolphins who have a similar set-up where their perimeter corners are far better than their slot corner.  In that game Meyers had 7 catches for 111 yards.  I actually kind of like the idea of having Meyers in the captain spot on rosters along with 4 or 5 Bills in order to be contrarian.

The Patriots runningback situation is very undesirable with a three way split with Damien Harris looking like he is going to play and getting the majority of the carries.  The problem is he never catches the ball out of the backfield capping his ceiling.  Sony Michel is the exact same only probably will have less carries than Harris.  James White is the pass catching option, but he has had single digit touches in the vast majority of games this season.  The game script I expect is the Bills getting ahead and staying ahead and the Patriots fighting from behind.  That game script would fit James White the best.  Dump offs in garbage time can add up in showdown slates.   I will own a bunch of Meyers, but I will have some White as well as my very little exposure to the Pats.

The Buffalo Bills defense is very much in play as they have improved greatly as the season has gone by.  A positive game script forcing Cam Newton to do what he does least well (throw the ball), could mean turnovers, sacks, and a lot of DK points for the defense.

 

Must Haves:

Allen $12,600

Diggs $11,000

Meyers $10,800

 

Favorite players for the price:

Singletary $7,600

Z Moss $7,400

G Davis $5,000 (Loses value if John Brown plays)

 

Low Dollar Options:

Bills Defense $5,400

John Brown $2,800 (If healthy)