Monday Night Showdown Slate- Bills @ Titans

Lines:

Bills (-5.5) @ Titans

o/u = 54

 

DVOA

Titans against the run #25
Titans against the pass #27
Bills against the run #1
Bills against the pass #1

It is tough not to own Derrick Henry in a Showdown Slate, but it is also tough owning him along with Josh Allen and a Bills receiver.  Be sure you are building around a predicted game script for these showdown slates.  Henry scored two TDs against the Bills last year, but he only averaged 3 yards per carry in the game.  If you believe that Buffalo will be able to rip apart this Titan defense, then the Titans are going to need to throw the ball a lot more than they would like to and that does not benefit Henry.  If you think the Titans can hang in there and Henry will have success running the ball, then you can certainly own him.  With how well the Bills secondary has been playing this year, they should be able to lock down on the Titan receivers and thus focus on stopping Henry.

 

Favorites:

Josh Allen, $12,800

• A must own for Showdown Slates, Allen has gone bonkers the last three games putting up 40.2, 21, and 39.5 DK points.
• His rushing ability (188 yards and 2 TDs) give him an ultra high ceiling
• Titans have given up the 3^rd most DK points to QBs.

Stephon Diggs, $9,600

• Both Diggs and Sanders have a delicious match-up here. I like Sanders, but it is tough to own both of them along with Allen in rosters (although it can be done).
• Sanders has the edge over Diggs in TDs this season 4 to 1, but that will even out. Diggs has 47 targets to Sanders 31.
• Titans are a train wreck on defense and have allowed the most DK Pts to WRs this season.
• Mixing in Diggs in the Captain spot on some rosters is not a bad idea.

 

Value:

Zack Moss, $7,000

• Consistent start to the season, Moss has 13, 14, and 11 carries the last three games and has scored at least 12 DK points in each game he has played.
• Titans rank 25^th vs the run DVOA and the game script should have the Bills ahead for most of this game.
• Moss is the Bills goaline back and already has 3 TDs.

Cole Beasley, $5,400

• I have no idea why Beasley has not been more involved in the offense the last two weeks, especially after a big 2020 season and 30 targets in the first three games of this season.
• We know the Titans secondary is bad, and Beasley and they are going to need Beasley to be involved in the offense at some point.

 

Sleepers:

Julio Jones, $6,600

• I am not sure Jones fits in the value category given how unpredictable his performance is for this game, but I do think he will be pretty low owned.
• My reasoning for liking him as a possible sleeper is that Tre’Davious White will be shadowing AJ Brown most of the time. The Bills have also been tough on slot receivers with Taron Johnson playing really well at slot corner. Their weakest spot is probably Levi Wallace who will cover the other perimeter side from White, which in this one will be Julio most of the time.
• Titans should have to throw to try and keep up with the Bills as a 5 point underdog.

Bills Defense, $4,800

• If the Bills are able to keep Henry under control and force the Titans to throw the ball, this game could get ugly.
• I like included the Bills defense on some rosters in the case of a Buffalo onslaught.

Anthony Firkser, $4,000

• 13 targets in his three games played, he might get more if the Bills secondary locks down on most of their receivers.
• Titans will likely need to be passing in this game to keep up with the Bills offense and somebody needs to get the targets.
• Bills have been most vulnerable to the TE of any position this year.

 

Possible lineups:

C-Diggs, Allen, Sanders, Beasley, Bills Def, Firkser

C- Allen, Diggs, Beasley, Singletary, J Jones, Firkser

C- Diggs, Allen, Beasley, Bass, Moss, Jones