Monday Night Showdown Slate- Giants @ Bucs

Lines:

Giants @ Bucs (10.5)

O/U = 50

 

DVOA

Giants against the run #6
Giants against the pass #15
Bucs against the run #4
Bucs against the pass #12

 

Notes:

Sterling Shepard has been ruled out so Golladay, Toney, and Slayton will be the three Giants receivers.

Antonio Brown is out and Gronkowski is highly questionable.

 

Favorites:

Tom Brady, $11,200

• Likely the most heavily owned, Brady in a primetime slate is tough to pass on.
• Even in the last two week’s losses he still has 31 and 15 DK points.
• Has only two games this season he has thrown less than 2 TDs.

Mike Evans, $10,200

• Scored in each of his last three games (5 TDs total).
• Four games this season with 20+ DK points
• Will get shadow coverage from James Bradberry, but that is not enough for me to fade him completely in a one-game Showdown Slate.

Leonard Fournette, $10,000

• Brady just peppers his backs with targets and Fournette is no exception (14 targets the last 2 weeks).
• Five of his last six games he has 17+ DK points.
• Should get more carries in this game than usual with the positive game script and poor NYG defense.
• Giants give up the 4^th most DK points to RBs.

 

Value:

Chris Godwin, $9,400

• Continues to see massive volume (31 targets the last three weeks). In those three weeks he has two games over 100+ yards and 2 TDs.
• Much of this has bee because of Browns absence and Brown is out again for this game.
• 4^th in the NFL in redzone targets (19)
• Primarily in the slot, Godwin will be away from James Bradberry’s coverage

 

Sleepers:

Bucs Defense, $5,200

• We have seen a ton of defense scoring in Primetime games this season.
• The Bucs are always intriguing because of their shutdown run defense that forces teams to pass.
• A 10 point favorite at home should add to the probability of the Giants needing to throw a lot.
• Daniel Jones has six turnovers himself the last four games.

Darius Slayton, $3,200

• I don’t love many pieces of the Giants offense, but Slayton is at least cheap.
• Very inconsistent this season, he has only two games with double digit DK points.
• Shepard being out should result in more targets.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Giovani Bernard, $1,800

• Ronald Jones is the #2 back, but Bernard will have more opportunity to score points being the third down back.
• He has found the endzone three times this year and averages about 3-4 targets per game.
• Game script does not necessarily favor him, but if he can get into the endzone he will pay off his price easy.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Godwin, Brady, Fournette, Toney, Bucs, Bernard

C- Brady, Evans, Godwin, T Johnson, Bucs, Slayton

C- Fournette, Brady, Godwin, Brate, Toney, Slayton

C- Godwin, Brady, Fournette, Golladay, Bucs, Rudolph