Monday Night Showdown Slate- Ravens @ Browns
Ravens (-3) @ Browns, Game Total = 45.5
DVOA
Ravens against the run #4
Ravens against the pass #10
Browns against the run #19
Browns against the pass #22
Last week we saw Lamar Jackson in a Showdown Slate and as I say most every time that happens, is it is very difficult to get away from him as Captain and this game is no exception. His rushing ability gives him such a high ceiling especially in a game with such a low game total. In the three games against the Browns this year and last, Jackson has had no fewer than 27 DK points in any of them. I will own him as Captain on at least 50% of my rosters.
The running game for the Ravens is very very frustrating and it isn’t that they just rotate possessions, they often rotate between plays. JK Dobbins is clearly the superior back, yet the Ravens insist on mixing in Edwards, Ingram, and even freaking Justice Hill on occasion. Here are the snap totals from last week against the Cowboys (Dobbins = 38%, Edwards = 33%, and Ingram = 20%). In choosing between them, you might want to factor in which game script you believe will apply to this game. If you think this will be a close game or the Ravens will be playing from ahead then Dobbins seems to make the most sense. But if you believe the Browns are going to be up and the Ravens playing from behind, then Edwards has the best chance to excel as he is the primary pass catching option. If you are doing a major Browns stack, then Edwards might be a good option as your Ravens representation. Overall Dobbins is my favorite of the three, but I get awfully frustrate when he comes jogging off the field every other play.
Mark Andrews and Willie Snead return to the Ravens this week, which will broaden the target tree for Jackson. Marquise Brown has caught touchdowns in each of the last two weeks, and his volume has been way up (16 targets) with Andrews and Snead out. The Browns have allowed the 10th most receiving yards per game (256) and the 9th most DK points to receivers. Top cornerback Denzel Ward remains out for the Browns for this game. Certainly Brown has the highest ceiling with his speed and big play ability.
Duvernay will probably lose the playing time he had last week in the slot as Willie Snead is now back. Boykin however will continue to see playing time as he played 87% of the snaps last week replacing Dez Bryant who will be out again this week.
Mark Andrews typically has been Jackson’s favorite target, especially in the redzone and Nick Boyle is on IR, so he should get almost all of the playing time at tight end. I do worry a bit about rust for Andrews being out the last couple of weeks.
Baker Mayfield has had some struggles against the Ravens defense the last two years with lines of 192/2/1 and 342/1/1 last year and 189/1/1 in week 1 of this season. This is a Showdown slate, so he is certainly in play. I am neither really high, nor really down on him in this game and will probably end up underweight as I will own him as Captain on 10% of my rosters and 35% overall.
Since his return from injury in week 10, Nick Chubb has had at least 18 carries in all four games. He has hit the 100 yard mark 3 of those four times and scored 3 touchdowns. The Ravens rank middle of the road in rushing yards given up per game (115) and DK points. With around 20 carries, Chubb has a decent chance of hitting that 100 yard mark. If you are building rosters around the Ravens having a positive game script, then Kareem Hunt would make a sensible play as he is the primary pass catching option out of the backfield.
With OBJ out, Jarvis Landry has stepped up as the Browns #1 receiving option and has 16 catches on 21 targets the last two weeks. The Ravens secondary is quite a bit better than the Jags and Titans, for which those number were posted against, but they are still beatable. Corey Davis, AJ Brown, Michael Gallup, Amari Cooper, and Ju Ju Smith Schuster have all posted 100 yard games or a touchdown over the last three weeks against this secondary, so they can be beaten. Rashard Higgins broke out last week with 6/95/1 on 9 targets. This was his largest volume game of the year as his previous high was 6 targets.
Austin Hooper is not expected to play, which means Harrison Bryant should get a boost as he has previously when Hooper has been out. Surprisingly Bryant actually has four games this season with double digit DK points. The Ravens have allowed the 9th most catches to tight ends this year. We could really use the cap savings that come along with his $4,200 price, so Bryant is my favorite low dollar play on the slate. * Just make sure Hooper is for sure ruled out.
With the game total where it is, both teams defenses are in play. Again, building correlating rosters around a particular game script is typically a good practice. For instance a Jackson/Dobbins/Ravens stack and run it back with Hunt. Or if the Browns take control of the game then Chubb/Jackson/Edwards and the Browns defense would make sense.
Must Haves:
Jackson $11,800
Chubb $10,200
Andrews $8,800
Favorite players for the price:
Dobbins $8,200
M Brown $7,400
Hunt $7,200
Low Dollar Options:
H Bryant $4,200
Boykin $2,200
Best Correlating Plays/Stacks:
Jackson/Dobbins/Hunt/Ravens
Chubb/Browns/Edwards
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