Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 5: GB @ LV

Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 5: GB @ LV

Lines:

O/U: 45.5

Raiders, –2.0

2023 DVOA:

GB: Defense Against the Run: #25 (2023–2nd most yards allowed per game at 155.3 yards; 2022–7th most yards allowed per game at 139.5 yards).

GB: Defense Against the Pass: #18

LV: Defense Against the Run: #19 (2023–8th most yards allowed per game at 134.3 yards; 2022–14th most yards allowed per game at 122.8 yards).

LV: Defense Against the Pass: #28

Thoughts:

Another slate that shapes up as to who will probably play and cross your fingers there aren’t key last minute in actives. Let’s start with Davante Adams. It seems highly unlikely he’d miss a chance to face off against the Packers, especially with the extra day to rest it, but him not playing changes everything, so definitely keep tabs on that. With the extra rest and coming off a Thursday Night loss to the Lions, I would assume Aaron Jones should have more of the injury caution restrictions taken off here. Jimmy G cleared concussion protocol on Friday so there should be no question on him starting the game. From there, the Packers OL appears to be healthy, and the return of Jaire Alexander should be massive for the passing game. I want to take the over and I will chance the points and take the Packers.

 

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,200/Davante Adams – Leads the NFL with a 38.2% target share and a 58% air yards share so of course you’re playing himand his 23.4 DK points per game average. He has been targeted on more than 35% of the routes that he’s run. Playing the Packers narrative must count for a little something, with or without A-Rod still there. Through 4 games this season, the Packers have allowed opposing WR units to score 30.2 DK points per game.

$10,600/Josh Jacobs – After a 25 touch, 1 TD, and 139 yards from scrimmage performance last week, you’d like to hope that Jacobs is all the way back and he could be. The litmus test will be this week with Garoppolo back under center, a huge target hog in Adams, and facing the Packers and the habitually easy to run on, run defense. Even with the lack of reps in training camp, he is still averaging 20 touches through the season’s first games. This feels like a game where he should land on the higher side of his 14.5 DK point average, with the Packers having allowed 2 200-yard games already this season in just 4 games.

$10,000/Aaron Jones – The Raiders have allowed the 13th most DK points to opposing RB units to score 23.4 DK points per game through the season’s first 4 games. James Cook blitzed them for 150 yards from scrimmage in Week 2, but in the other 3 games, there was no back that produced more than 80 yards from scrimmage. If Jones is healthy here, with his receiving prowess, there is no reason why he shouldn’t end up with over 100 yards from scrimmage by game’s end.

$9,800/Jordan Love – Has scored at least 19.6 DK points in each of the season’s first 4 games, on an 8:3 TD/INT ratio thus far. The game should see him get back 4 of the 5 OL starters which should benefit him and the running game. The Raiders have given up 20.4 DK points to opposing QBs this season so far, while generating the 2nd lowest pressure rate and allowing the 3rd highest passing touchdown rate. Love is a minor threat to take off and run as well as he has 16 rushes in 4 games.

 

Moderate Usage:

$9,400/Jimmy Garoppolo – Could be a tough spot to come back for Jimmy G as he is facing a Packers Defense that is generating pressure at the 3rd highest rate in the league through 4 games and while facing pressure, he has produced a 1:4 TD/INT ratio on a 55% completion rate. Still, he is averaging 16.4 DK points per game this season in his 3 starts and he’s facing a Packers team that has allowed opposing QBs 16.7 DK points in their 4 games. Even at an average performance here, he’ll be worth using in your pool and with Adams in the lineup, it’s entirely possible he could land on more than just average.

$8,200/Romeo Doubs – Has scored at least 18+ DK points in 3 of 4 games this season. Paces the team with 33 targets through the first 4 games on a 25%+ target share. Is tied for 3rd in the league with 7 red zone targets through the season’s first 4 games.

$7,800/Christian Watson – The Raiders have allowed opposing WR units 35.8 DK points per game through the season’s first 4 games. Would expect an uptick in usage and snaps this week having not played since the Week 4 Lions game on Thursday, where he played 45% of the snaps. He ran a route on 20 of the 42 drop backs from Love that he was in the game for. Even on a snap count last week, he caught a TD pass and with the Raiders having given up 6 TDs to opposing WRs this season, it seems likely he could catch another here.

$7,000/Jakobi Meyers – Worth a long look here due to his 8 catch and 11 target average in the two games he has played with Garoppolo so far. Is averaging 16.6 DK points per game thus far in the 3 games he’s started this season. Would expect Alexander to be focused on Adams for a large portion of the game, so if he is slowed much that would open Meyers for an even bigger game.

$6,200/Jayden Reed – Averaging 11.5 DK points through the season’s first 4 games. Has seen 25 targets in those 4 games but has only reeled in 12 of them. Still, he leads the team in yards per route run and is 2nd in average depth of target. If there is a concern, it’s the fact he’s an upper mid-range salary for a guy, in an offense that likes to spread the ball around, that might be the 4th option in this offense with a full cast of healthy characters.

$4,200/Daniel Carlson – Averaging 4.8 DK points per game through the season’s first 4 games on a perfect line of 4/4 FGs and 6/6 XPs. The Packers have allowed the 15th fewest DK points to opposing kickers thus far this season. After Meyers at $7,000, there aren’t a whole lot of Raiders options outside of him in price that you are the safe floor that he does.

$4,000/Anders Carlson – Averaging 7.0 DK points per game through the season’s first 4 games on a perfect line of 5/5 FGs and 9/9 XPs. The Raiders have allowed the 10th fewest DK points to opposing kickers thus far this season. With Musgrave and the Packers D/ST somewhat close in price, he could get lost in the shuffle a bit with the other Packers options substantially cheaper, but that might be.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$5,200/Luke Musgrave – The Raiders have allowed the 11thmost catches and 16th most DK points to opposing TE units on the season at 12.0 points per game. Cleared concussion protocol quickly after an early exit from last week’s game, so he should be good to go here. Played at least 75% of the snaps in the season’s first 3 games.

$4,600/AJ Dillon – Lots of decisions here will be made primarily on how close to 100% Jones truly is. Last week’s rushing share and routes run usage won’t disappear entirely overnight, regardless of how ineffective he has been. Has averaged 12 touches per game through 4 starts this year but has yet to surpass 7.3 DK points.

$1,000/Ameer Abdullah – Value comes as a receiver out of the backfield and luckily for him, he is facing the Packers who have allowed the 2nd most receptions to opposing RB thus far this season.

$600/Austin Hooper – Splitting reps with Mayer make it tough for any TE in this offense, especially with the team using 2 TE sets at the 7th lowest mark this season through 4 games. Still, the Packers are allowing 10.6 DK points to opposing TE units through 4 games and the salary savings might prove beneficial and even more so if the Packers allow their 2nd TE TD of the season in this game.

$200/Dontayvion Wicks – Flashed upside earlier in the season when he was getting more snaps, producing at least 8.5 in Weeks 2 and 3. With Watson healthy now, he will revert back to fighting for the leftovers, but sometimes even a small slice of the pie (saw just 1 target last week) can turn into something great, and with the Raiders allowing points on almost 75% of red-zone trips against them, a 1/1/1 line could still prove worthwhile with the high priced studs available to use here.

$200/DeAndre Carter – Isn’t seeing much activity in terms of a WR, but he has seen 1 target in at least 3 games, but the additional upside comes from his work on special teams.

$200/Jakob Johnson – Remains to be seen if he’s active here or not but did see 2 targets last week and facing off against the Packers as an RB warrants even the cheapest of players, some consideration.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Adams, Garoppolo, Meyers / Love, Reed, Wicks

C: Adams, Jacobs, Abdullah / Love, Watson, Carlson

C: Jacobs, Adams, Meyers / Love, Musgrave, Wicks

C: Jacobs, Adams / Love, Doubs, Dillon, Wicks

C: Love, Doubs, Watson, Wicks / Adams, Meyers

C: Love, Doubs, Watson / Adams, Meyers, Abdullah

C: Jones, Love, Reed, Wicks / Adams, Meyers

C: Jones, Love, Watson, Carlson, Wicks / Adams

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)