Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 9: LAC @ NYJ

Monday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 9: LAC @ NYJ

Lines:

O/U: 39.5

Chargers, –3.5

2023 DVOA:

LAC: Defense Against the Run: #20 (2023–6th fewest yards allowed per game at 93.4 yards; 2022–6th most yards allowed per game at 144.2 yards).

LAC: Defense Against the Pass: #26

NYJ: Defense Against the Run: #18 (2023–2nd most yards allowed per game at 144.9 yards; 2022–16th most yards allowed per game at 121.6 yards).

NYJ: Defense Against the Pass: #6

Thoughts:

Can a great defense at home slow a good offense on the road? I think it’s entirely possible. The better question is what the Chargers defense might be able to do the Jets offense. The Jets offense has scored just 8 offensive touchdowns so far this season. The Jets still have Breece Hall, and I expect him to get his so to speak; however, as the Chargers still have Mack, Bosa, and Fox, the likelihood of them ratting the Jets offensive line and forcing Zach Wilson into some mistakes seem high. Still, the Jets have shut down Mahomes and Josh Allen so far this season and defensively they are more than capable of pitching a great effort there. Lazard is the one weapon in the game that I would keep tabs on as far being active for the matchup, otherwise, the rest of the key players should be in play for the game. I think the under is the play here, but you could go either way as far as who wins. I’ll take the points with the Jets but assume the Chargers win on the road, 20-17.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$12,000/Austin Ekeler – Through 8 weeks, the Jets are allowing the 8th most DK points to opposing RB units at 24.9 points per game. Ekeler has just 101 rushing yards in the 3 games since his injury return; however, during that stretch he has 13 receptions for 130 yards and 1 receiving TD. With the Jets allowing the 5th most receptions and 6th most receiving yards to opposing RBs, Ekeler might need another offensive game plan like last week’s Bears victory where he scored 24.3 DK points on 8 targets out of the backfield to truly be successful here. With the Jets losing one of their key NT to an Achilles tear, Ekeler might find additional room to run here, making him heavy chalk that you should have little regret heavily using.

$11,800/Justin Herbert – With the Jets allowing the 3rd fewest yards per attempt as well as the 12th fewest DK points to opposing QBs this season at 16.4 points per game, I expect Herbert to have a tougher go than he’s used to this week as other elites (Allen, Hurts, and Mahomes) have all had. However, that doesn’t mean that Herbert won’t be able to produce here. Herbert has scored at least 20 DK points in 6 of the 7 Chargers games this season so far. Coming in off a 3 TD effort last week against the Bears in which he completed 78% of his passes for 7.45 per attempt, a similar approach here might find enough success to Herbert against over 20 DK points.

$11,600/Keenan Allen – Allen has seen 9 targets and scored at least 12 DK points in 6 of 7 games this season so far. I would expect perhaps higher usage in the slot this week for Allen as it will keep him away from Gardner and Reed, who usually don’t come into the slot. Allen is averaging 63% snap share so far this season from the slot. The Jets are allowing the fewest DK points to opposing WR units on the season at 22.3 points per game. The Jets have given up only one receiving TD this season to an opposing WR, while Allen hasn’t scored a TD over the last 2 weeks. We will see which streak remains intact after the week’s games.

$9,600/Garrett Wilson – Garrett has accounted for more than 60% of the team’s targets from inside the 10-yard line. The overall usage rate remains elite and featured as he maintains a target share well north of 30%. With the Chargers allowing the 3rd most DK points to opposing WR units at 42.4 points per game, Wilson could be sitting on a bit of a blowup game. Additionally, the Chargers are allowing the 6th highest average depth of target and 4th highest yards per completion, it seems like is Wilson is due for some positive TD regression as he has not scored one since Week 2, while scoring more than 14 DK points in 5 of 7 games on the season.

 

Moderate Usage:

$10,400/Breece Hall – Heading into Week 9, the Chargers had allowed the 11th most DK points to opposing RB units at 23.8 points per game as well as the 4th most catches and 5th most receiving yards. With 3 consecutive games of at least 20 DK points on an average line of 20 touches, 126 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD, Hall looms large as a huge threat for double-digit DK points as he been on the field for well over 60% of the RB snaps during that stretch.

$8,800/Zach Wilson – Through Week 8, the Chargers were allowing the most DK points to opposing QBs at 24.5 points per game. With 4 games of at least double-digit DK points and the Chargers allowing league-high yardage per pass attempt, Wilson should again up in double-digits as a safe floor with a higher ceiling potential on the horizon this week.

$4,400/Greg Zuerlein – As the Jets have struggled to put points on the board so far this year, Zuerlein’s 10 DK point per game average looms large as a Jets option for whatever type of build you seek for this game. The Chargers are allowing the 8th fewest DK points to opposing kickers on the season, but with Zuerlein kicking an average of 2.8 FGs in his 6 games kicked this season, the opportunities should remain to return good value.

$3,600/Quentin Johnson – We saw a preview of what life without Palmer might look like last week as Johnson assumed a heavier role in the offense with him limited. Now without Palmer already ruled out, an uptick from last week’s 5/50 line on 6 targets for double-digit DK points on a 70% snap share should expected. However, with more looks to be expected from the outside as opposed to the inside, expectations should be tempered against the Jets Pass Defense.

$3,000/Tyler Conklin – Conklin has run a route on 70% of drop backs from Wilson so far this season and has produced at least 3 catches in 5 of 7 games so far this season. He has yet to score a TD on the season, but with the Chargers having allowed 14.8 DK points per game to opposing TE so far this season as well as 2 TDs, perhaps this is the week Conklin turns in his best game of the season.

$200/Derius Davis – With Davis assuming the WR3 for this game with Palmer out, he should be in line to see a snap count that drifts into the mid-teens if not more, however, with most of the Chargers WR3 options cheap, don’t be afraid to pivot to a different one should one lower-priced option not make the active roster for the game. As Davis has seen 2 targets in 3 of his last 4 games, he is my lukewarm selection for higher usage.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$5,000/Chargers D/ST – The Jets are allowing the 9th most DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. With 4 games of at least 4 more sacks on the season, I would expect the Chargers to ramp up the pressure in this game to rattle a shaky Jets OL in the hopes of forcing Wilson into turnovers. The Chargers were able to hold the Bears to 13 points last week while scoring 9 DK points on 2 INTs and one sack. Perhaps the sack and INT totals are reversed here, but a ceiling effort here would be something in the low double-digits.

$4,600/Cameron Dicker – The Jets have allowed the 11th most DK points to opposing kickers this season. The Jets have held their last 5 points to 23 or fewer points. Should they step up again here at home, points could be hard to come by making Dicker an attractive option at his salary. In 3 road games this season, he is averaging 7 DK points.

$4,200/Jets D/ST – The Chargers are allowing the 2nd fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. The Jets have scored at least 7 DK points in 5 of their 7 games played so far. With 3 games of multiple INTs, 4 games of multiple sacks and a healthy Gardner and Reed for this game, I would expect the Jets to find a way to score at least 7 here yet again.

$2,600/Joshua Kelley – When Kelley has been priced up this season he has underperformed, but with his priced slash in half from last week, I am willing to take look again as in those 2 prior sub $4,000 games this season, he has scored in double-digit DK points. He has averaged just 5 touches per game over the past 3 games, but with NT/Woods out for the game here, perhaps Kelley can find his way towards breaking at least one long gain as he has done several times already this season. The Jets have allowed 147 combined yards from scrimmage in their games this season which should allow Kelley a mid-single-digitsfloor here with the upside for a little more.

$600/Semi Fehoko – If Fehoko didn’t catch that TD last week, I’m certain that we would be looking at another $200 option here. However, being familiar with the offense as he came over to the Chargers from the Cowboys proved beneficial last week with Palmer limited. I suspect that could be the case again here with Palmer already ruled out. Should Guyton not make the active roster for the game or look limited, I would bump up Fehoko a nudge on your rankings list.

$200/Randall Cobb – In the case of pick your poison, which WR3 or lower options of Jets do you prefer? On the chance Lazard doesn’t play, they all become a touch more valuable, so check to see which ones are active for the game before deciding. I’m siding with Cobb as he saw a target in each of the season’s first 6 games and while inactive last week, should be active for the game here. Profile doesn’t profile out as a threat for huge yards, but more of a reliable source of short yardage gains in the slot where perhaps one ends up being a TD?

$200/Michael Carter – Dalvin Cook profiles out as the better backup option for the Jets but for the difference in price, I’ll happily take a flyer on Carter even if it turns out to be a punt that doesn’t return any significant value. Carter is likely to see perhaps just a couple of carries at best, but with receptions out of the backfield in 5 games this season, perhaps he can spring one for a bigger than expected gain.

$200/Jalen Guyton – I’m leaning towards believing that Guyton will be active for this game and if so, I’m playing in small doses while interchanging with D. Davis. He is recovering from an ACL tear that he suffered in Week 3 of last year, but prior to that, he served as a deep threat option for Herbert averaging 16.8 yards per reception in his career up to that point.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Ekeler, Herbert, Allen, Johnson, Guyton / Zuerlein

C: Ekeler, Allen, Davis / Hall, G. Wilson, Carter

C: Herbert, Ekeler, Allen, Guyton / Zuerlein, Conklin

C: Herbert, Allen, Dicker, Johnston / Z. Wilson, Conklin

C: Allen, Herbert, Fehoko, Davis / Hall, G. Wilson

C: Allen, Herbert, Ekeler, Johnston / Carter, Zuerlein

C: G. Wilson, Z. Wilson, Conklin, Carter / Ekeler, Allen

C. G. Wilson, Hall / Herbert, Allen, Fehoko, Davis

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)