Monday Night Showdown Slate- Saints @ Seahawks

Lines:

Saints (-4.5) @ Seahawks

O/U = 42.5

 

DVOA

Saints against the run #2
Saints against the pass #9
Seahawks against the run #16
Seahawks against the pass #24

 

 Make sure to check the weather before the game, but as of right now it calls for rain with winds from 15-25 mph.  Rain often does not shut down a passing game as many people would have you believe, unless it is extremely driving rain.   However, winds can if they are high enough.  If the forecast is correct and they are only between 15-25 mph, then it should not impact the passing games immensely.  If they end up exceeding 25mph, then they could.

 

Favorites:

Alvin Kamara, $12,800

• A smash spot for Kamara as the Seahawks have been destroyed by opposing running games (3^rd most DK points allowed).
• For the most part Kamara has underwhelmed so far this year, but showdowns are different and this game sets up nicely as the Saints are favored and if the winds kick up, the Saints will be looking for short dump down passes.
• Last week he saw the most targets all season (8), so hopefully that trend continues.

Jameis Winston, $11,800

• 279 yards and 4 TDs in his last game vs Washington, Winston will be throwing a lot of dink and dunk stuff in this game, but with guys like Callaway and Kamara, they can certainly break them.
• Seattle ranks 24^th against the pas and has allowed the 11^th most DK PTs to the QB position.
• Normally stacking a QB and RB has negative correlation, but not in this situation.
• Taysom Hill is out.

Tyler Lockett, $9,000

• Overall, I like Metcalf so much more than Lockett, but I am having a hard time squeezing in his salary and Lockett is $1k cheaper.
• Metcalf will likely see shadow coverage from Marcus Lattimore, while Lockett will get opposite perimeter corner Paulson Adebo, which is an outstanding match-up for Lockett.

 

Value:

Marquez Callaway, $8,600

• Deonte Harris has been ruled out, so Callaway becomes the clear #1 target in the passing game.
• A season high 8 targets last week of which he turned 2 into TDs.
• Seattle has allowed the 7^th most DK points to WRs.

Alex Collins, $7,400

• Make sure to check the injury report, but as of now it looks like Collins will start.
• A ton of volume with Carson out, Collins is bellcow and even though it will be tough sledding on the ground, he is capable of scoring DK points through the air.
• Will get any goaline carries as well.

 

Sleepers:

Gerald Everett, $4,400 and Freddie Swain $2,000

• Lattimore will be glued to Metcalf and Seattle is going to have a difficult time running the ball so they will have to throw to somebody. Everett and Swain are two viable options to see a handful of targets.
• Both saw three targets last week.

Kenny Stills, $1,600

• My hopes are never high for Stills, but with Deonte Harris out, he should be a significant part of the passing game. He did have 5 targets last week.
• A tremendous match-up in the slot, which is where he should play primarily against slot corner Ugochukwu Amadi.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Kamara, Callaway, Stills, Lockett, Collins, Swain

C- Callaway, Kamara, Winston, Trautman, Stills, Lockett

C- Lockett, Smith, Collins, Everett, Kamara, Stills