Saturday Main Classic Slate – Week 2, 8 Games: NYJ @ CAR, BUF @ PIT, ARI @ IND, WAS @ MIA, SEA @ TEN, LAR @ LAC, TB @ JAX, DAL @ LV

Saturday Main Classic Slate – Week 2, 8 Games: NYJ @ CAR, BUF @ PIT, ARI @ IND, WAS @ MIA, SEA @ TEN, LAR @ LAC, TB @ JAX, DAL @ LV

Going to try and write this primarily as a primer for the 8-game slate, but I will break it out a little more in depth where I can in case you wish to attack the slates individually for showdown purposes. Speaking of Showdown, they have slates available for the two later games, TB/JAX and DAL/LV.

$20K is a decent pool for this 8-game slate in the big GPP. Do not be shy – get involved! If not that, at least try one of the smaller ones, if you are reading. Shall we cash something big today?

Lines:

O/U: 31.5

Jets, -1.0

 

O/U: 39.0

Steelers, -1.5

 

O/U: 36.0

Colts, -1.5

 

O/U: 38.0

Dolphins, -4.0

 

O/U: 35.5

Seahawks, -1.0

 

O/U: 33.5

Chargers, -2.5

 

O/U: 37.5

Buccaneers, -2.5

 

O/U: 39.5

Raiders, -6.5

 

2023 DVOA:

 

NYJ: Defense Against the Run: #14 (2023-8th most yards allowed per game at 124.0 yards; 2022-16th most yards allowed per game at 121.6 yards).

NYJ: Defense Against the Pass: #3

 

CAR: Defense Against the Run: #32 (2023-10th most yards allowed per game at 122.4 yards; 2022-15^th most yards allowed per game at 122.6 yards).

CAR: Defense Against the Pass: #17

 

BUF: Defense Against the Run: #17 (2023-15^th fewest yards allowed per game at 112.2 yards; 2022-6^th fewest yards allowed per game at 104.8 yards).

BUF: Defense Against the Pass: #9

 

PIT: Defense Against the Run: #9 (2023-12th most yards allowed per game at 118.6 yards; 2022-9^th fewest yards allowed per game at 108.1 yards).

PIT: Defense Against the Pass: #6

 

ARI: Defense Against the Run: #30 (2023-1st most yards allowed per game at 143.2 yards; 2022-14^th fewest yards allowed per game at 118.6 yards).

ARI: Defense Against the Pass: #31

 

IND: Defense Against the Run: #24 (2023-9^th most yards allowed per game at 123.8 yards; 2022-13^th most yards allowed per game at 124.1 yards).

IND: Defense Against the Pass: #18

 

WAS: Defense Against the Run: #19 (2023-6th most yards allowed per game at 126.8 yards; 2022-11^th fewest yards allowed per game at 113.3 yards).

WAS: Defense Against the Pass: #32

 

MIA: Defense Against the Run: #16 (2023-7th fewest yards allowed per game at 99.8 yards; 2022-4^th fewest yards allowed per game at 103.2 yards).

MIA: Defense Against the Pass: #22

 

SEA: Defense Against the Run: #25 (2023-2nd most yards allowed per game at 143.2 yards; 2022-3^rd most yards allowed per game at 151.9 yards).

SEA: Defense Against the Pass: #28

 

TEN: Defense Against the Run: #10 (2023-14th fewest yards allowed per game at 107.7 yards; 2022-1^st fewest yards allowed per game at 76.9 yards).

TEN: Defense Against the Pass: #24

 

LAR: Defense Against the Run: #20 (2023-13th fewest yards allowed per game at 105.3 yards; 2022-13^th fewest yards allowed per game at 115.1 yards).

LAR: Defense Against the Pass: #21

 

LAC: Defense Against the Run: #21 (2023-16th most yards allowed per game at 113.2 yards; 2022-6^th most yards allowed per game at 144.2 yards).

LAC: Defense Against the Pass: #27

 

TB: Defense Against the Run: #8 (2023-4^th fewest yards allowed per game at 93.5 yards; 2022-15^th fewest yards allowed per game at 121.1 yards).

TB: Defense Against the Pass: #14

 

JAX: Defense Against the Run: #12 (2023-9th fewest yards allowed per game at 103.1 yards; 2022-12^th fewest yards allowed per game at 113.8 yards).

JAX: Defense Against the Pass: #10

 

DAL: Defense Against the Run: #5 (2023-14^th most yards allowed per game at 114.1 yards; 2022-11th most yards allowed per game at 124.4 yards).

DAL: Defense Against the Pass: #7

 

LV: Defense Against the Run: #18 (2023-13th most yards allowed per game at 118.5 yards; 2022-14^th most yards allowed per game at 122.8 yards).

LV: Defense Against the Pass: #8

 

Players I Like: (I will not call them a rank necessarily due to the size of the slate and the variable playing time involved, but I have listed them in the order that I like them.)

QB’s:

1. Trey Lance, Cowboys: Still no Dak. Played almost all of week 1 and produced a 25/41 line for 188 and another 6/44 on the ground. Even with a little less time the numbers should still eclipse 150+ combined yards making him an elite selection for the position.
2. Josh Allen, Bills: Went 2/3 for 22 yards last week in limited action and is projected to get 1-1.5 Q of action this week.
3. Jeff Driskell, Commanders: Produced a line of 7/15 for 58 yards last week. Daniels might see a bit more action, but Mariota and Hartman who played last week are out for this week. Driskell should be the beneficiary.
4. Sam Howell, Seahawks: Played 70% of the snaps in Week 1 and produced a 16/27 for 130 yards line. Quite possible that PJ Walker sees a bit more action here, but perhaps not.
5. CJ Beathard, Jaguars: Produced a 7/14 for 125 yards with 1 TD line in splitting action with 2 other QBs last week. Lawrence is not starting this week and Beathard should be the recipient of most of that playing time.

Others to Consider: Malik Willis/Titans.

RB’s:

1. Rams: It was a 2-man RB rotation last week and it is speculated to be the same here with Boston Scott and Zach Evans. If true, you want to play at least one of these guys in almost all your lineups, if not with both. If I had to play one, it would be Scott based on last week’s stat line and 80% of the time over Evans.
2. Colts: A 3-man RB rotation for this week’s game and the two main figures from last week, Evan Hull and Tyler Goodson, are the guys to own. Hull should get you the yardage on the ground and Goodson will be the “pass catching” back, but both could produce and deserve heavy exposure. I do not think you can go too wrong with either, but I prefer Hull.
3. Cowboys: With Freeman and Vaughn back this week, I expect they will both see most of the action in the game. Freeman should end up as the RB3 here to start the season and he has been talked up. Vaughn is the more explosive of the two and if the Raiders are the deserving favorite, Vaughn might end up being the better choice of the two.
4. Steelers: With the starters projected to play 4 series, I am all in to use Harris and Warren here. They both should see carries on the ground and I expect Warren to catch at least one ball out of the backfield. Will either do enough to really move the needle in your lineup? Probably not. Guaranteed points are a good thing regardless. Not sure I would use both in the same lineup but consider getting at least one in there.
5. Buccaneers: Remains to be seen if Irving will step up this week against a respectable Jags defense; however, with both Tucker and Williams each seeing 10 carries last week, I am happy to assume all 3 will see heavy action here and perhaps there is a hot hand situation that develops. I will ride Tucker/Williams, in that order, for this game and not play them both together. My least favorite group of the 5 listed.

Others to Consider: Mike Boone/Panthers; Jaylen Wright/Dolphins; Hassan Haskins/Titans.

WR’s: (One from each team that could hit):

1. Jets – Lance McCutcheon: Saw 3 targets last week and played 75% of the snaps. With starters sitting, should be busy again.
2. Panthers – Ihmir Smith-Marsette: Produced a 4/24 line on 6 targets and 50%+ of the snaps last week operating primarily from the slot.
3. Bills – Khalil Shakir: Starters playing again and went 3/28 on 3 targets last week in less action.
4. Steelers – George Pickens: Went 2 for 25 yards on 2 targets last week. Playing 4 series this week with Russ starting.
5. Cardinals – Dan Chisena: Turned 30%+ snap count into 5 targets last week and caught them all for 63 yards.
6. Colts – DJ Montgomery: With the starters likely not to play, the depth chart remains small enough where multiple receivers should see plenty of playtime. Montgomery led the team with 11 routes run and produced a 2/45 line on 4 targets last week.
7. Commanders – Luke McCaffrey: Rookie produced a 2/25 line on 3 targets last week, while playing 40% of the snaps and seems likely to do so again as the team tries to settle their WR depth chart.
8. Dolphins – Malik Washington: Caught 1 of 4 targets for 5 yards but added 1 rush for 20 yards. Capable of playing all over the field.
9. Seahawks – Dareke Young: Produced a 3/44-line last week on 4 targets while running a team high 29 routes.
10. Titans – Bryce Oliver: Hunch play. If Willis turns in the game, I think he could, their training camp chemistry might make itself quickly apparent.
11. Rams – Tyler Johnson: With starters not playing again and possibly a few more players, Johnson could be the prime recipient of the extra playing time. Produced a 1/11-line last week on 3 targets.
12. Chargers – Simi Fehoko: Played entirely from the slot last week and saw a team high 4 targets and caught 3 of them for 33 yards, in what was a dismal passing performance from the Chargers. This week is better?
13. Buccaneers – Ryan Miller: As the Buccaneers still have a QB2 battle on their hands, passing should remain active in this game. Miller turned in a 3/42 line on 5 targets last week on 42 snaps. Averaged 22 snaps per game last preseason.
14. Jaguars – Parker Washington: Caught 1 of his 3 targets for 10 yards last week as multiple WRs played a bunch. With no starters, projected here, he should see more action.
15. Cowboys – Jalen Cropper: Good training camp. Played 23 snaps in last week’s game. Produced a 4/26 line on 6 targets. With the starters sitting again, seems likely to see similar action. Can he produce more?
16. Raiders – Jalen Guyton: Even with rust still apparent and not in game shape, still had 1 reception for 24 yards in last week’s game. Vet WR has now been practicing for 10 days after coming off the PUP list and can do more here especially if Adams/Meyers do not play much or at all.

TE’s: (Feels like a bit of a soft group for the slate, I may spread around and not lock into one guy too much, unless news comes out between now and game lock favoring that decision. And again remember, they do not score many points on average. Grab the sure thing and hope you get lucky.)

1. Dalton Kincaid, Bills: Regular season starter projected to play 1Q+.
2. Brock Bowers, Raiders: Lined up all over the field in last week’s game. Caught 2 passes for 25 yards.
3. Pat Freiermuth, Steelers: With the starters playing 4 series and Russ starting, might be 2^nd option in the passing game after Pickens.
4. Ben Sinnott, Commanders: Went 3/57 with a long reception of 44 yards last week. Saw 37% of the snaps last week and could see that kind of playing time again.
5. Josiah Deguara, Jaguars: Paced the team with 22 snaps, 4 targets, and 42 yards last week. What happens this week when many starters will not play?
6. Jordan Matthews, Panthers: Earned 3 targets last week while playing more than a 1/3^rd of the snaps. Tremble/Thomas should not be playing, and I would expect similar playing time for Matthews, slotting right behind Sanders on the depth chart.

D/ST’s –

1. Rams: I can deal with Bennett’s INTs because at least the Rams won the game. Each of the QB’s that came in for the Chargers, to be honest, sucked last week and I do not see it improving much.
2. Dolphins: Assume Driskell comes out throwing here. Shut down Atlanta last week with a better defense than last year and seems ripe for a turnover or too.
3. Jets: Shortest total of the night. Bryce Young plays? Otherwise, it is a game of Jake Luton and Jack Plummer. Jets D >= Carolina Offense – even the backups.
4. Steelers: They know Trubisky’s weaknesses. Steelers at home.
5. Raiders: Largest favorite of night, Dallas not playing any starters, and at home.

And for those that might be using this as a Showdown Tool:

Kickers: (Bucs/Jags and Cowboys/Raiders are the only games with showdown slates available, but I will rank a few of the others).

1. Cowboys – Brandon Aubrey
2. Buccaneers – Chase McLaughlin.
3. Raiders – Daniel Carlson.
4. Jaguars – Cam Little.
5. Dolphins – Jason Sanders.
6. Bills – Tyler Bass.

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)