Saturday Slate – Bills v Broncos/Panthers v Packers

Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte December 19, 2020 02:02

Saturday Slate – Bills v Broncos/Panthers v Packers

We have a two game slate on Saturday and with Jeff attending to some family events, I wanted to give a very quick and dirty rundown of the games tomorrow as it looks like the main contests are in the two game, classic slate as opposed to the showdowns that are available. Somehow, DraftKings is going to run a full on Millionaire Maker contest off of these two games and since we’ve had amazing success over the last two years on some of these smaller slates, it’s worth taking a look to see if we can crack the code and tie with a thousand other entries to split a decent prize.

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QB

Aaron Rodgers ($7,800) – There are only two options worth considering this week at QB and you are paying up for one or the other. Rodgers is playing elite level football this season and with a healthy group of receivers, he’s carving up opponents every week. The bonus this year with Rodgers is that the Packers are not very good on the defensive side of the ball which allows a lot of bad teams to stay in games longer than normal which keeps Rodgers throwing the ball for four quarters. The other big advantage of Rodgers is that Green Bay seems to have an aversion to running the ball near the goal line this season. Carolina ranks 27th this season against the pass and with the Packers expected to score 30+ points, Rodgers again has a high floor/high ceiling matchup.

Josh Allen ($7,200) – If not Rodgers, I think you need to use Allen who is a threat with his arm and legs. Usually I would prefer the running QB at a slightly lower price, but Rodgers ranks jut higher for me based on output, consistency and the way the Packers run their offense. That said, Allen should again be in a spot to produce against a Bronco defense down its top corners. The Bills also have not been able to rely on the run game to move the ball outside of Allen scrambling around so we rarely lose TDs with the Bills offense running the ball in the red zone.

 

RB

Aaron Jones ($7,300) – This is a boom or bust play. Jones helped a DFS owner win a $1 million against the Eagles, but it took a late 70+ yard TD run to get there. Outside of that, he has only been a slate breaker one other time. The talent is definitely there and Carolina is not great against the run, but I’ll be light on Jones tomorrow as I think paying up in the Packers passing game is the right move. Also, with Jamaal Williams siphoning away carries, he’s not the workhorse we’d like him to be.

Mike Davis ($6,500) – With CMC doubtful to play tomorrow, Mike Davis will again get the nod and the Packers have been vulnerable against running backs all season as they rank 22nd against the run. Davis is likely to see close to 20 touches with plenty of targets in passing game which is fortunate as the Packers rank 28th against pass catching RBs. Davis is my top value RB play for the price this week.

Devin Singletary ($4,100) – The Broncos rank 25th against the run and though the Bills have not leaned on him that heavily this season, this could be a spot for him to shine as it is one of the better matchups he’s had in recent weeks and if the Bills get up in this game, they could call on him more often in the second half. With both Broncos starting RBs listed as questionable right now, our options are incredibly limited this week so if we can find 10 points out of Singletary, we’ll take it and move on.

 

WR

Davante Adams ($9,400) – Adams is again the top play on the board and in a two game slate, he ranks far above any other player this week. He’ll move around the field and see all three of Carolina’s corners this week, but none of them are shutdown in the least which means that Adams is again going to have over 100 yards and find the end zone at least once.

Stefon Diggs ($7,900) – The only other player that is in the same league as Adams this week is Diggs who is having a career year in Buffalo after whining his way out of Minnesota in a trade that seems to have worked well for both teams. He’s averaging over 10 targets per week this season and has the advantage of going up against backup corners in Denver this week. With the lack of a strong run game, the Bills will continue to feed Diggs through the rest of the season and throughout the playoffs.

DJ Moore ($5,200) – Moore missed last week on the COVID list, but is back healthy this week and ready to go. With Curtis Samuel battling a hamstring injury, Moore should pick up the extra targets as it seems likely that Jaire Alexander will spend most of his time making sure the speedy Robby Anderson does not get loose deep down the field. With the Panthers likely to be behind most of the day, Moore has 10+ target potential at a great price.

Cole Beasley ($4,700) – Cole Beasley is likely a must play at his price this week. The Broncos secondary is beat up and with John Brown out, Beasley has become a target machine seeing 10+ targets in three of his last four games and eclipsing 30 DK points in two of those games. He’s tough to stop out of the slot and provides an extension of the run game for the Bills with the short passes he gobbles up all over the middle of the field.

Tim Patrick ($4,300) – Patrick is the top dog at WR for Denver. If we exclude the QB-less game against the Saints, Patrick has only been held under 10 points one time over the last ten games. While the Bills are middle of the road against the pass, both starting RBs for Denver are listed as questionable this week so the Broncos may end up having to abandon the run game even earlier than normal which should help to bump up the targets for Patrick in a positive game script where the Broncos will have to fight to keep up with the high powered offense of the Bills.

Marquez Valdez-Scantling ($4,200) – Between Lazard and MVS, I have to give the nod to MVS who Rodgers seems to trust for the deep ball shots this year as he’s averaging nearly 20 yards per reception and has hit paydirt five times. He is likely a boom or bust play, but seems to have usurped the WR2 spot for the Packers even after Lazard returned from an injury. It will only take one big play for MVS to pay off his salary this week.

 

TE

Robert Tonyan ($4,500) – This slate is really weak on TEs, but Tonyan does stand out as a solid play. Rodgers likes to get the TE involved and has a strong affinity for the man he calls, Bobby. He’s clearly someone that Rodgers relies on inside the 10 yards line as he’s hauled in nine TDs this season including one in each of the last four games. The Panthers rank 21st against the TE so this should again be a good spot for Tonyan to make the most of his opportunities.

Noah Fant ($3,800) – Fant started the year really strong the first two weeks, but has flattened out for most of the rest of the season, never really turning into the star many projected he would become this year. Unfortunately, we do not have a lot of options on this slate and Fant is far and away the most talented player outside of Tonyan under consideration. The Broncos are beat up in their backfield, the Bills are middle of the road against the TE and the Broncos are likely to be playing from behind so Fant is again in play, though his ceiling has not been that high this year.

 

DEF

Buffalo ($3,000) – The only defense I am considering this week is Buffalo. The Packers give up too many points to bad teams and punting to the Broncos against an offense like the Bills does not make a lot of sense when I think they will struggle to hold Josh Allen down. Meanwhile, the Broncos are beat up, eliminated from playoff contention and will rely on a turnover prone Drew Lock to move the ball. The Bills are the best option this week, and the price is surprisingly affordable.

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Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte December 19, 2020 02:02

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