Saturday Slate – TB v DET, SF v ARZ, MIA v LV – Week 16

Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte December 26, 2020 08:16

Saturday Slate – TB v DET, SF v ARZ, MIA v LV – Week 16

We had great success with the two game slate last week so I am returning this morning with a quick look at the three games that we have to watch this Saturday afternoon one day after Christmas! The key to success for these little slates is to lock in on the high dollar players that are most likely to pay off and then identifying the 2-3 value plays that open up your salary cap enough to make those big dollar players affordable. Do not worry about using players from all the games or even many players from the same game. Being slightly concentrated can work out well if you target the right game of the slate. What you do want to avoid is having players from opposing teams that do not compliment each other well. Avoid stacking against your preferred defense if able. It also probably does not make a lot of sense to use more than two pass catching options for any one team. It is also usually best to avoid paying up for both a high dollar RB and WR from the same team (see Green Bay last Saturday for the most recent example).

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QB 

Kyler Murray ($7500) – Murray is the most explosive player on the slate and with the news that Richard Sherman is out for the 49ers, he should be in position for another big afternoon. He threw for 230 yards and a TD and ran for 91 and another TD in Week 1 against SF and of all the QBs on this slate, he definitely has the best upside potential for the week. The Cards are weak at the RB position so Murray is a dominant presence down in the red zone each week.

Tom Brady ($6800) – Brady lit up Atlanta last week and has another promising matchup this week indoors against the Lions who rank near the bottom of the league in pass defense. The only worry for me with Brady is if the game is not competitive and he does not need to throw very often in the second half to win the game, thus capping his fantasy numbers around 20 points.

Tua Tagovailoa ($5400) – If you pay down, I think Tua is the play against the Raiders. If Carr can keep the Raiders in the game early, Tua will have to keep moving the Dophins up and down the field in a game that does have some shootout potential. He’s been better over the last few weeks and the Raiders are the 29th ranked defense in the NFL so the upside potential is there if the game stays close.

 

RB 

Leonard Fournette ($5500) – My top play at RB this week is Leonard Fournette. With Ronald Jones still out, he’ll get the full workload against the Lions this week and is in a better spot than last week to put up big numbers. The Lions rank 28th against the run this season and the Bucs are decidedly heavy favorite this week. If the script goes according to plan, Fournette should see plenty of carries in the second half to put the game away. He punched in two TDs last week and likely has at least one in him this weeek.

Josh Jacobs ($6600) – The Dolphins are very tough to throw against (5th against the pass), but have been terrible this season against the run (24th). Jacobs has been the most consistent player this season for the Raiders who will need to control the ball to open up any sort of passing attack against this tough secondary.

Jeff Wilson ($5000) – Wilson looks like the lead back for the 49ers which means that he should see plenty of touches. With CJ Beathard taking over at QB for the injured Nick Mullens, the 49ers will be even more run reliant than normal to control the clock to stay in the game. The Cards have struggled of late against the run so there could be an opportunity for Wilson to put up some numbers assuming the 49ers can stay in the game.

Kenyan Drake ($5200) (if Chase Edmonds is out) – If Drake is featured as a three down back, that means he likely sees 20+ touches and finds his way into the same situation as Tony Pollard last week. He’s not an elite player, but volume goes a long way towards getting him there. If Edmonds plays, I will likely not play either Cardinal RB this week.

Miami RB – Need additional intel here on whether Gaskin or Ahmed will be the lead RB and how the split will work. If one is the primary, they would certainly be in play against the Raiders who have the 31st ranked run defense in the league. Leave some availability in the flex position for some of your teams as news comes out about each game throughout Saturday afternoon. A late swap to the right Miami RB could lead to a massive swing in points. Worst case, if you build a bunch of lineups, you can take some shots with each and hope that one has the hot hand early and the Dolphins ride that back all day.

 

WR

DeAndre Hopkins ($8300) – Hopkins is the guy I am trying to work into the majority of my lineups this week. With the news that Richard Sherman is out for the 49ers, this should be another spot for Hopkins to smash as he opened the season with 14 catches for 151 yards against this same Niners team in Week 1. He’s seen 35 targets the last three weeks and has over 300 yards and two TDs in that time frame. He should be priced up over $9k for this slate so we are getting a nice price break on Nuk.

Brandon Aiyuk ($6700) – CJ Beathard is a downgrade for Aiyuk, but he’s playing so well and the pass catching options are slim for SF that he figures to still see at least 8-10 targets again this week. He’s scored at least 19.7 points in each game over his last six starts and with the Cards expected to be ahead, he has a very positive game script working in his favor.

Marvin Jones ($4900) – Jones has been a boom or bust type of player throughout his career, but as the WR1 for Detroit in a game they are likely to be trailing in, his value goes up a great deal. He’s averaging ten targets per game over his last six games and in three of those games, he’s scored over 23 DK points. The Bucs have been reeling of late in their secondary and Carlton Davis is doubtful to play today. Jones has a high floor and very high potential ceiling this week.

Tampa WR Corp – I do not have the perfect answer for which of the three will have a huge week. Mike Evans has been the most consistent throughout the year and has 11 TDs on the season, but Antonio Brown did get loose on a long TD last week and has a good connection with Brady. Tom moves the ball around well and does a good job of keeping everyone involved. Each guy has a great matchup this week against the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. In order, would rank them 1) Evans 2) Brown 3) Godwin

Lynn Bowden Jr ($3900) – Devante Parker may be back this week, but either way, I am in on Bowden. He’s been reliable the last three weeks and has seen 20 targets come his way. If Grant or Parker or both are unable to go, he should continue to get action against the Raiders this week.

Danny Amendola ($3700) – Amendola has the best matchup this week for the Lions coming out of the slot against Sean Murphy-Bunting. He has not demonstrated a lot of upside this season, but the Bucs have gotten killed out of the slot so perhaps this week there is a chance for bigger numbers. With limited options on the low end this week, Amendola is a reasonable risk v reward proposition.

 

TE 

Darren Waller ($7000) – Best TE on the board this week as the one guy who could break the slate from this position. He has over 30 DK points in two of his last three starts so he’s heated up as the season has gone on.

TJ Hockenson ($4600) – The Bucs rank 25th at covering the TE this season. Before last week’s dud, TJ had seen 35 targets in his previous four games. With the Lions likely to be behind, he should see plenty of involvement again this week as the Lions play catch up.

George Kittle ($5000) – If he’s healthy, then this would be an amazing price for Kittle, though it sounds like he may be on a snap count this week so you may have to temper your expectations. He’s worth a flier or two if you are building a lot of lineups today as when he’s at his best, he can post similar numbers to Kelce or Waller.

Rob Gronkowski ($3600) – If you need to punt at TE, Gronk is a reasonable option. He has not been a big producer the last couple of weeks, but he did log seven targets a week ago and has had plenty of involvement in the Bucs offense all season, especially in the red zone. The Lions will be on their heels all day trying to cover all of the Bucs’ pass catchers so Gronk should find plenty of one on one matchups that work in his favor.

 

DEF

Arizona ($3300) – The best value play on defense, I am perfectly willing to take my chances against CJ Beathard this week who has mostly been awful in his limited action over the last couple of seasons.

Tampa Bay ($3800) – Best overall unit on the board, the defense should be able to pressure Stafford most of the day and since he is not moving well, they should be able to get to him often to force mistakes.

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Zachary Turcotte
By Zachary Turcotte December 26, 2020 08:16

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