Showdown Slate – Super Bowl LV- Bucs vs Chiefs

Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson January 28, 2021 22:19

Showdown Slate – Super Bowl LV- Bucs vs Chiefs

Chiefs (-3.5) vs Bucs

DVOA
Chiefs against the run #31
Chiefs against the pass #16
Bucs against the run #1
Bucs against the pass #5

You do not need me to tell you that the big three for the Chiefs (Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill) are good plays for any slate, much less a one game slate.  20+ DK points for each of them almost every single week makes them imperative to own in a Showdown Slate.  I would say that owning two of these guys is mandatory, but owning all three is preferable.  At any rate, one of these guys is going to have to be in the Captain spot with their enormous ceilings.  If you own Kelce in the Captain spot, and why not he has been an absolute monster all season, and then both Mahomes and Hill in the flex, it leaves you with $3700 per player for your remaining three guys.  It is not ideal, but it is doable.  Sammy Watkins is expected to be back and he is only $4,200.  Mecole Hardman has been benefited from  Watkins absence seeing 7 targets in their two play-off games, but that would likely decrease if Watkins is back.  Watkins was very good in last years Super Bowl (5 catches for 98 yards) and is usually the #3 option for Mahomes behind Kelce and Hill.  I would not count on a monster game from Watkins, but if we could eek out 10-12 DK points for that price I would take it.

I was hopeful that Clyde Edwards-Helaire would return and be productive in the AFC Championship, but that simply was not the case. Only six carries for seven yards and only one catch was all he could muster.  At the same time Darrel Williams continued to be the lead back for the Chiefs and saw 13 carries for the second straight game along with one catch for nine yards.  It is apparent that the Chiefs have developed trust in Williams.  The tough part for either back this week is how amazing the Bucs have been against the run all season and held the Packers to just 67 yards on the ground.  Neither one of the backs is likely to do much on the ground in this game, so it comes down to who we think is going to see more action in the passing game.  In his last four games Williams has 10 catches on 12 targets.  Edwards-Helaire was a big part of the passing game real early in the season (27 targets in the first six games), but since then he has only had 11 targets total.  Williams is cheaper as well, so I will give the edge to him in this game.

Leonard Fournette has been the clear lead back for the Bucs since week 15.  He has easily seen the most carries and has been active in the passing game.  I like him quite a bit in this game as he is not game script dependent and you can run on the Chiefs (8th most rushing yards allowed per game in the NFL- 120.5). The Bills did not test this because a) they did not have a runningback worth two shits and b) they fell behind early and were in catch-up mode.  I can see the Bucs coming into this game with a run first mentality, trying to capitalize on the Chiefs vulnerable run defense, but also in an attempt to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field.  Fournette will be in my rosters where I only own two of the big three Chiefs as it is impossible to own him in those that have all three. Cap-Hill, Mahomes, Fournette, Watkins, Williams, Brate would be an example of this type of team.

Even though Fournette has been the clear lead back, thinking that it is possible that the Bucs come into the game with a run first mentality, it creates a bit more of an opportunity for Ronald Jones.  Only posting 6.2 and 1.6 DK points the last two games, Jones has had a respectable amount of carries (23).  That number could possibly get to 15 if the Bucs want to focus on the run and can keep the game close.  All we would need is about 8-10 DK points from Jones at $2,200 as we can use him for cap relief and include him on those rosters that have the Chiefs big three.

Rob Gronkowski has barely been involved in the passing game the last month, catching only 4 balls.  He has however seen 11 targets in that time and a couple in the endzone.  We have seen all season specific plays drawn up for Gronk in the endzone and I would expect them to try and isolate him in this game at least a couple of times against a Chiefs defense that allowed the 4th most DK points to tight ends.  Speaking of which, Cameron Brate has actually been a big time factor in the Bucs offense lately catching 11 balls in their last three games.  He is $1,800 more expensive then Gronk, but he has seen many more targets (18 in the last four games).  I actually think it is a reasonable option to roster both Brate and Gronk.  We know the Cheifs have struggled against the tight end position, so if the Bucs want to try and take advantage of that, there is no reason why both guys could not be heavily involved.

The Bucs receivers have been difficult to own all year, because there are so many mouths to feed and nobody has really taken a clear lead role.  Chris Godwin has the best match-up in this game against slot corner L’Jarius Sneed.  Godwin has really come on late in the season and posted more than 18 DK points in four of his last five games.  Evans leads the Bucs in redzone targerts (21) and converted 9 into touchdowns. Last week was weird because the Packers elected to have Kevin King cover Evans for part of the game as opposed to Jaire Alexander. It was a poor strategy as Evans immediately caught a couple of balls to start the game including one for a touchdown.  The Chiefs perimeter corners, Bashaud Breeland and Charvarius Ward are both solid and as a whole the Chiefs have limited opposing wide receivers to the 2nd least DK points per game.  With Evans and Godwin being priced where they are and the ball being spread around so much, it makes it very difficult to own them.  Antonio Brown however is quite a bit cheaper at $6,200 and from week 15 through the Washington game he had caught at least one touchdown in each game and scored 13 or more DK points.  He did not play against the Packers, but he is expected to play in the Super Bowl.  My main priority is owning the Chiefs big three, so the price savings from Brown help accomplish that.

In a game where the offenses are capable of moving the ball fast, both kickers find themselves in play.  Often times we see high powered offenses move the ball up and down the field, but sometimes stall and be unable to punch it in.  If that happens, either kicker could pay off their price.  If you are going with a Chiefs stack (5-1 or 4-2) then including Harrison Butker makes some sense.  Cap-Kelce, Hill, Mahomes, Butker, Gronk, and Jones is a legit team.

Neither defense does much for me in this game.  The Chiefs defense was only able to post six points in their past two playoff games and those were games in Arrowhead Stadium. The Bucs have been better, posting 9 points in each of their last two play-off games, but Mahomes is not easy to bring down and does not make a ton of mistakes.  Both are cheap, but they are not cheap and unless a fluky defensive score happens, which is impossible to predict, it would be tough for either defense to post many points.

 

Must Haves:

Mahomes $12,000

Kelce $11,000

Hill $10,400

 

Favorite players for the price:

Brown $6,200

 

Low Dollar Options:

Brate $4,800

Watkins $4,200

Gronkowski $3,000

Jones $2,200

Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson January 28, 2021 22:19

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