Sunday Night Showdown Article- Chiefs at Bears

Sunday night sends the Chicago Bears who will be home for the playoffs to Kansas City who is the thick of the playoff chase in the AFC. Vegas has the Cheifs favored by 6 with a game total of 46. With the Chiefs needing this game badly and the Bears not, I will be owning many more Chiefs than Bears. I already have a lot of 5-1 and 4-2 Chiefs dominated lineups.

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The passing game is where we need our exposure for the Chiefs as the backfield is an absolute cluster between McCoy, Williams, Thompson, and now Spencer Ware.  I am not sure all four of them will be active, but a three way committee is not appealing especially against a Bears run defense that has given up the 6^th least rushing yards per game.

All three of the Chiefs top options in Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill are very appealing.  It is extremely difficult to own all three of them, especially if one is in the Captain spot.  I would suggest choosing either Kelce or Hill and pairing them with Mahomes.  I am going to lean toward Hill slightly in large field GPPs because of his big play ability, although I will be owning about half and half of each.  The Bears have given up the sixth most fantasy points to the tight end position and Kelce has had 10 targets per game over the last month, so that would be an argument for him.

Sammy Watkins has done nothing spectacular since his week 1 explosion, but he is the clear #3 option behind Hill and Kelce in both playing time and targets.  He has 15 targets over his last three games and if we are expecting points through the air, then Watkins is a viable option for only $5,600.  Mecole Hardman has jets and if he gets out in the open, he is gone.  The problem is his minimal volume (3 targets in the last three games).  With the same amount of volume as Demarcus Robinson, I guess I would rather go with Hardman because of the big play ability.

Game flow is going to be interesting in this game, because the Bears are going to want to keep the ball on the ground, where the Chiefs are more vulnerable and to keep Mahomes off the field.  The problem is however if they fall behind and are forced to throw the Chiefs defense has been tough allowing the third least amount of fantasy points to receivers.

David Montgomery has been the bellcow back for the Bears with at least 13 carries in each of their last eight games.  He however has not been efficient having not hit 100 yards but one time this entire season and single digit fantasy points in five of his last six games.  Very little involvement in the passing game gives Montgomery a low ceiling for not that cheap of a price.  Assuming the game script will have the Bears trailing and needing to pass, Tarik Cohen appears to be the better option.  Four double digit DK point games in his last six games, Cohen has averaged more than 6 targets per game in that span.

Allen Robinson has been a beast lately putting up 20+ DK points in his last four games on a whopping 44 targets.  He will likely see that kind of volume in this game as well given the game flow.  He will see coverage from both Charvarius Ward and Bashaud Breelan, who have both been very good this season.  The better match-up is actually for Anthony Miller in the slot who will get Tyrann Matieu who has struggled.  Miller has also been very good since week 11 putting up 11.4, 13.7, 26, 13.2, and 29.8 DK points. He has clearly separated himself as the Bears #2 option through the air.

For a cheap option at receiver Riley Ridley has moved in front of Javon Wims in 3 wide receiver sets.  He has only had three targets the last two weeks, so it is a complete punt option.  We could also own a Bears tight end as unappealing as that is. Jesper Hosted has run twice as many routes as JP Holtz and received twice as many targets, so I would give him the edge.  Again, complete punt option.

Given the game script in this one we should have exposure to the Chiefs defense.

Here are a couple lineups that I like based upon what I believe the game script will be-

Captain- Hill, Mahomes, Watkins, Hardman, Chiefs defense, Cohen

Captain- Kelce, Mahomes, Watkins, Butker, Chiefs defense, Cohen

Captain- Hill, Mahomes, Kelce, Butker, Chiefs defense, Horsted

Captain- Miller, Cohen, Mahomes, Kelce, Robinson, Watkins

 

QB:

Mahomes $12,000

 

RB:

Cohen $7,200

 

WR:

Hill $11,000

Robinson $9,800

Miller $8,200

Watkins $5,600

Hardman $3,600

Robinson $2,000

TE:

Kelce $10,800

Horsted $1,600

K:

Butker $4,000

DEF:

Chiefs $4,800