Sunday Night Showdown Slate Article- 49ers vs Seahawks
The final regular season showdown slate for us features an excellent, meaningful match-up between the visiting 3 point favorite, 49ers and home Seahawks with a game total of 46.5.
The Seahawks are so desperate for runningbacks with Chris Carson and CJ Procise going down that they signed Robert Turbin and Marshawn Lynch literally off the street. I have no idea what kind of shape these guys are in having not played this year, so I can’t see them getting more than 5-10 touches. Travis Homer is the only remaining guy who has been on the roster, so he will likely get the majority of the carries, which could be 15-20. Last week in fill in duty he caught six balls for 26 yards, which is very promising. We know Seattle wants to run the ball, so I am going to have Homer on 40-50% of my rosters and 15% in the Captain spot.
Tyler Lockett reverted back to his shitty play that he demonstrated between week 10-14. His 29 DK point outburst in week 15 against the Panthers gave promise, but then a dud. Now he has a real tough match-up with slot corner K’Waun Williams. He certainly has some upside and impossible to fade if you are doing a bunch of lineups, but I will be underweight the field. DK Metcalf is $1k less than Lockett and will get the majority of his coverage from the weakest 49er cornerback, Ahkello Witherspoon. You might think Richard Sherman would shadow him on the perimeter, but Sherman sticks to the left side exclusively, while Metcalf plays the other side between 60-70% of the time.
Malik Turner has been ruled out, so David Moore is probably the 3rd best option at receiver for the Seahawks. Barely any volume (10 targets in his last five games) for Moore, we are hoping for a touchdown from him, which has only happened twice all year. He is a long shot punt play, but only $1,400
The 49ers are tough against the tight end, but Wilson has peppered his tight ends all year with targets whether it be Will Dissly or Jacob Hollister. 18 catches on 23 targets the last four games, I will own a lot of Hollister as he is only $5,000. 55-65% in the flex and 10% as Captain.
Russell Wilson has not put up 20 DK points since week 9 even against some weak defenses (Cardinals, Panthers, Eagles secondary). He put up 17.6 against the 49ers in SF the first time around in week 10. Despite his low ceiling lately, I still believe his big game ability gives us a high ceiling and we must have some exposure. 40% flex and 10-15% Captain.
The Seahawks have been beatable through the air and have given up the 6th most passing yards per game, but also on the ground giving up the 9th most rushing yards per game (117). The 49ers will likely try and keep it on the ground. Raheem Mostert has taken over lead back duties the last month with 19, 10, 14, and 11 carries and for the most part been very effective. Working off of a game script of the 49ers getting ahead and running the ball and the Seahawks throwing, you could pair Wilson, Hollister, and Mostert. Matt Brieda was cast off last week and saw zero touches. Tevin Coleman was equally as non-existent with five touches. Barring a Mostert injury, neither of these guys look like acceptable options.
George Kittle is a beast and the Seahawks have been beaten by the tight end position many times this season and have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to the position. A minimum of 18 DK points in their his last three games with a at least 8 targets in each give Kittle a really high ceiling and my favorite play on the slate. 60-65% Flex and 20% Captain.
Deebo Samuel has the highest ceiling at receiver for the 49ers and actually has been the most consistent with at least 13 DK points in six of his last seven games. He also has the best matchup getting the majority of coverage from Tre Flowers and also from Shaquil Griffin. Samuel is priced actually cheaper than Emmanuel Sanders, which makes me like him even more.
Kendrick Bourne does not see much volume, but he does have the ability to find the endzone (5 touchdowns this season), which is huge in Showdown slates. He has the highest ceiling for low dollar players on this slate.
I will be including Jimmy G into my core and stacking with some combination of Kittle, Samuel, and Bourne. He has had some huge games (Cardinals twice and Saints), but also had duds as well (Rams, Falcons, and Ravens) in three of his last four games.
QB:
Wilson $10,000
Garoppolo $9,600
RB:
Mostert $8,800
Homer $7,400
WR:
Lockett $9,400
Samuel $9,000
Metcalf $8,400
Bourne $3,200
TE:
Kittle $10,400
Hollister $5,000
K:
Myers $4,000
Gould $3,800
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