Sunday Night Showdown Slate Article- Rams @ Browns

The Cleveland Browns snapped back from a blow-out loss on opening weekend with a 20 point win on Monday Night Football.  Of course partially to thank for that was a hapless Jets team who was down to their third string quarterback.  This week will not be such a cake walk for the Browns as they face the 2-0 Rams and are actually a 3 point underdog at home.  The game total is 48.

Through the first two games it has predictably been the Odel Beckham Jr show for the Browns with 21 targets. OBJ lines up on both sides of the field as well as the slot sometimes, so he should see both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib equally as neither generally shadows, but rather stays on their side of the field.  He is the highest priced player on the slate, but he also has by far the highest ceiling, so make sure you own him on 75% of your rosters and in the Captain spot on half.

Naturally if you own OBJ, you probably want to stack him with Mayfield as his stats inflate instantly on 10 yard slants that turn into 89 yard touchdown passes.  Neither of the first two games have been great performances for Mayfield, but his offensive line is partially to blame as he has been running for his life.  Mayfield will be without tight David Njoku who broke his wrist on Monday night.  One would think that without Njoku that Jarvis Landry would benefit from more volume underneath, but maybe the most effective Rams corner, Nickell Robey-Coleman will have primary coverage in the slot.

Last week I updated my Monday Night Showdown column when Rashard Higgins was ruled out, recommending that we get some exposure to now #3 receiver Damion Ratley who did well for his $1,800 price with 2 catches for 50 yards (3 targets).  If Higgins is out of this game as well, Ratley will be in play for me as a low dollar option ($2,000). Be sure to monitor this and adjust accordingly.  We gain such a large edge over the field when we make last minute adjustments based on late information.

I would like if there was one distinct option at tight end filling in for Njoku, but that is not the case.  Demetrius Harris will likely see the most snaps between Pharaoh Brown and Ricky Seals-Jones who have received one target between them in the first two weeks.  I will not be rostering any of them as I believe the Browns will play primary blocker Harris the most and keep him into block and assist the struggling offensive line.

Nick Chubb is my second favorite play behind OBJ as he is clearly the bellcow back and received 17 and 18 carries in the first two weeks and 4 targets in each.   The Rams have given up 181 yards and three touchdowns in the first two weeks and were 6^th worst in the NFL DVOA against the run last year.  I will own Chubb as my Captain on roughly 30-35% of my rosters.

D’Ernest Johnson was my best pick last week as he scored 8 DK points for just $200 and was on every winning GPP team.  The reason I was so high on him was because he was filling in for back-up Dontrell Hilliard who was out with a concussion.  Hilliard has now cleared the concussion protocol  and his return is going to cut into Johnson’s touches and it will not be the same as last week, despite his impressive play.

Austin Seibert was also a part of every winning GPP team on Monday and might well be again this week.  He had 13 points last week and for $3,200 this week his upside looks as high as most other options for that price.

While the Browns are easy to predict where the majority of the volume is going, the Rams are exactly opposite.  The three-headed receiving core changes from week to week with Cooks, Woods, and Kupp alternating weeks for most targets.

My favorite option is Cooper Kupp who seems to be Jared Goff’s safety blanket and should have the best match-up of the three against corner T.J Carrie. Kupp has 12 catches on 19 targets through the first two games.  There is absolutely nothing wrong with Woods or Cooks either and I will own both of them as week as well.

Jared Goff was much less effective on the road last season and that trend has continued through the first two weeks.  In week 1 Goff was only able to post 10 DK points vs a Panthers defense in Carolina that got beaten up by Jameis Winston a week later.  I don’t love paying $10,600 when I can have Beckham for $400 more and Mayfield and Chubb for less.

One of my favorite low dollar options in this game is Gerald Everett who will get much more playing time with Tyler Higbee out on Sunday.  Everett had 3 catches for 21 yards on 4 targets, but all of those numbers should increase this game and he is only $2,400.

Other low dollar options I like in this game are the Browns defense who have recorded 4 sacks in each of their first two games and I already talked about Goff’s struggles on the road.

Greg Zuerlein’s ceiling is probably higher than most kickers with his booming leg.  He had 15 DK points in week 1 and 9 last week.  With the pricing being as tough as it is, we are going to probably need to have more exposure to kickers than we normally like.

A few of the rosters that I have built already that I like include:

Captain- Chubb, OBJ, Kupp, Woods, Everett, Browns

Captain- OBJ, Mayfield, Cooks, Kupp, Ratley, and Everett

Captain- OBJ, Mayfield, Kupp, Woods, Seibert, and Everett

Captain- Chubb, OBJ, Gurley, Kupp, Seibert, and Everett

 

QB:

Mayfield $10,200

 

RB:

Chubb $9,800

Gurley $9,600

M Brown $4,200

 

WR:

Beckham Jr $11,000

Kupp $9,000

Cooks $8,600

Woods $8,400

Ratley $2,000 (***If Higgins is OUT)

TE:

Everett $2,400

K:

Zuerlein $3,400

Seibert $3,200

 

DEF:

Rams $4,600

Browns $3,800