Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Bears @ Packers

Lines:

Bears @ Packers (-12)

O/U = 43

DVOA

Bears against the run #18
Bears against the pass #22
Packers against the run #27
Packers against the pass #10

Notes: There is a chance Jaire Alexander returns this week, which makes a secondary that is already playing well with Eric Stokes and Rasul Douglas even stronger.  This bodes very badly for a struggling Bears passing game.

Packers defeated the Bears 24-14 in Chicago in week 6.

 

Favorites:

Aaron Rodgers, $12,000

• I like Rodgers a bit more in this game than Davante Adams.
• There are so many areas for Rodgers to exploit. 195/2 with a rushing TD in their first meeting.
• Against MN and LA the last two weeks he has had 36.5 and 29.3 DK points.
• Even if the Packers get a lead, Rodgers will likely try and pad the stats like usual.

Davante Adams ,$11,600

• I like Rodgers a bit more, but that doesn’t mean I don’t like Adams.
• Even with Jaylon Johnson possibly shadowing him the majority of the game, Adams is elite and nobody can shut him down completely.

David Montgomery, $10,000

• I hate most of the Bears offense most every game, but especially in this one. Cold weather Lambeau field against a far superior team, I just wont be owning hardly any Bears.
• If Montgomery can be involved as much in the passing game as he was last week (8 catches on 9 targets), when they are inevitably trailing in this game, then I can own him.
• If the Bears get near the goaline, Montgomery will also likely get a couple carries as well.

 

Value:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling, $7,200

• A massive 19 targets the last two weeks.
• With Jaylon Johnson following Adams most of the time, it leaves Artie Burns and Xavier Crawford on MVS and Lazard, two of the lowest rated corners in the league.
• The only fear I have with the Packers passing game is that they get up too big and take the foot off the throttle.

Packers Defense, $5,400

• This could be a nightmare for young Justin Fields in cold Lambeau field.
• A 12 point road dog, against a secondary that is playing well, I have a hard time thinking the Bears are going to mount much of an offensive threat.
• The Packers should have plenty of opportunity for sacks and turnovers with this game script.

 

Sleepers:

Cole Kmet, $5,200

• Has 18 targets the last two weeks and has 11 catches for 106 yards.
• In week 6 against the Packers he caught 4/49 on 5 targets

Allen Lazard, $4,800

• Minimal production his last two game (3 catches) despite seeing 10 targets.
• Will see an uptick in volume with Randall Cobb on the shelf.
• Same as with MVS, just a wonderful match-up with the Bears corners.

AJ Dillon, $4,400

• A sleeper in price, but likely not a sleeper in ownership as the price is too low.
• When the Packers had the lead on the Rams, it was Dillon with the bulk of the carries over Jones.
• Dillon has had 21, 11, and 20 carries the last three games to go along with 26.8, 15.7, and 20 DK points.
• The Packers should have the lead in the second half and if they play it the same, Dillon should see a lot of action.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Josiah Degura, $2,600

• Led the Packers in plays and targets last week and now has seen 13 targets of which he has caught 10 in the last five games.
• Not a high ceiling obviously, but if he can find the endzone like he did in week 11 he would produce nice value.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Rodgers, MVS, Lazard, Dillon, Packers, Montgomery

C- Rodgers, Adams, Lazard, Dillon, Packers, Kmet

C- Rodgers, MVS, Lazard, Dillon, Kmet, Robinson