Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Bills @ Chiefs

Lines:

Bills @ Chiefs (-2.5)

o/u = 56.5

 

2021 DVOA

Chiefs against the run #32
Chiefs against the pass #31
Bills against the run #2
Bills against the pass #1

 

Favorites:

Josh Allen, $12,400

• 409 yards and 4 TDs against the Chiefs in the two games last year, but added 130 yards rushing!
• 1,055 passing yards and 9 TDs through four weeks this season.
• Chiefs have allowed the most DK points to opposing QBs in the NFL.

Patrick Mahomes, $12,000

• Pretty crazy when 1,218 yards and 14 TDs through 4 weeks is not getting a ton of attention.
• An insane 32.7, 24.9, 28, and 36.3 DK points.
• 550 yards and 5 TDs in the two games against the Bills last year.
• Own him.

Stefon Diggs, $8,800

• Certainly his numbers are under what was expected so far this year, but his targets are still massive (42).
• Chiefs have been decimated by the pass, allowing 291 yards per game and the 6^th most DK points to WRs.
• No doubt both teams will be airing it out and especially the Bills.
• The slight price break makes Diggs very appealing as a Captain option. Need to stack Allen along with him for sure.

Travis Kelce, $9,200

• Quiet game last week, but 20+ DK points in weeks 1-3.
• Ripped the Bills last year in the two meetings (5/65/2 and 13/118/2)
• Slightly easier to squeeze in lineups than Hill who is $1,200 more.

 

Value:

Edwards-Helaire, 7,400

• Two straight games being more involved in the offense and he has produced (224 total yards, 4 catches and 2 TDs.)
• Monster game in the regular season vs the Bills last year going 26/161. Lost his way for the Chiefs come playoff time and barely played, but did get into the endzone in the playoff game.
• Capable of monster numbers in this offense if Andy Reid continues to feed him.

Emmanuel Sanders, $7,000

• Has become a consistent contributor to the Bills offense with 8,6,6,6 targets.
• Has 16 catches for 268 yards and 2 TDs.
• Chiefs secondary struggling as talked about earlier.

 

Sleepers:

Cole Beasley, $5,800

• Could be considered value or sleeper as some folks might be discouraged by last weeks 2 catch 16 yard performance on only 2 targets. I am going to look past that because of the wonky, lopsided 40-0 game against a non-competitive Texans team.
• Had a couple solid games against the Chiefs last year (7/88 and 4/45/1)
• 30 targets in weeks 1-3. Best bargain on the board.

Byron Pringle, $800

• Only one double digit DK pt game this season, but not many other great options for the Chiefs besides Kelce and Hill.
• Only plays 25% of the plays, but gets a couple of targets, which if one is in the endzone he smashes his price.

 

Possible Lineups:

C- Diggs/Allen/Kelce/Beasley/Edwards Helaire/Pringle

C- Kelce/Mahomes/Diggs/Beasley/ D Williams

C- Beasley/Allen/Mahomes/Kelce/Knox/Pringle