Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Broncos @ Chiefs

Lines:

Broncos @ Chiefs (-9.5)

O/U = 47

 

DVOA

Chiefs against the run #28
Chiefs against the pass #21
Broncos against the run #26
Broncos against the pass #18

 

 

Favorites:

Patrick Mahomes, $12,400

• Un Patrick Mahomes like numbers recently. Outside of a week 10 explosion over the Raiders, Mahomes has just two TDs in four of his last five games.
• Also far from dominant against Denver last year 518/2
• Even with that, there just are not many guys in this game with a high ceiling, so Mahomes has to be apart of your lineup builds.

Tyreek Hill, $10,800

• Didn’t go nuts against the Broncos in their two games last year (12/113/1), but it is tough to leave him off a Showdown Slate.
• Six games with 20+ DK points this season including the last two and three out of last four.
• Volume remains massive with 50 targets over his last four games.

Travis Kelce, $10,000

• 11/167/1 in his two games vs DEN last season.
• Mahomes go to guy, although his TD output has been low (5).

Javonte Williams, $7,600

• This will be an extremely popular play for this slate as Melvin Gordon has been ruled out.
• Williams has looked really good in his limited touches this season averaging 4.85 yards/carry and catching 27 balls out of the backfield.
• The Chiefs ranks near the bottom in run defense (26^th DVOA) and the Broncos put up 159 and 157 rushing yards respectively in their two games last year.
• I will own him, but a case could be made for fading him and hoping that the Chiefs defense can continue to play as well as it has the last three weeks (only 10 points allowed per game).

 

Value:

Noah Fant, $5,000

• 7/95 in his two games last year vs KC
• Chiefs have allowed the 7^th most DK points to the TE position.
• Game script has the Broncos playing from behind and Fant has averaged over 6 targets per game.

 

Sleepers:

Chiefs Defense, $4,400

• Have played terrific the last three games allowing only 10 points per game, while scoring 11, 7, and 15 DK points.
• The Broncos offense is very hit and miss, and likely would struggle in coming from behind if the Chiefs build a lead.
• I like this play as part of a Chiefs onslaught stack.

Byron Pringle, $1,800

• Not an easy task to identify what Chiefs pass catcher will end up number #3 in any given game. Maybe Hardman, but he just one double digit DK point game in his last six and he is $4,800.
• Pringle is $3k less and has done just about as much as Hardman this year.
• Certainly worth a shot for this price.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Darrel Williams, $2,000

• We saw his volume slashed last week with the return of CEH.
• He will still likely touch the ball 10 times in this game, which is not bad for $2k. He is also capable of seeing a goaline carry as well.
• CEH hasn’t exactly been an iron man either and if exits the game Williams will step in and be the lead back.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Hill, Mahomes, Kelce, Williams, Pringle, Fant

C- Hill, Kelce, J Williams, Fant, Pringle, Edwards-Helaire

C- Mahomes, Kelce, Hardman, Jeudy, Fant, Chiefs