Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Browns @ Ravens

Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson November 27, 2021 22:37

Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Browns @ Ravens

Lines:

Browns @ Ravens (-3.5)

O/U = 47

 

DVOA

Ravens against the run #6
Ravens against the pass #27
Browns against the run #17
Browns against the pass #24

 

Notes:

Kareem Hunt is coming off the IR and expected to play in this game. This will make him a legit value and pretty much deflate D’Ernest Johnson.

 

Favorites:

Lamar Jackson, $12,400

  • A showdown slate with Lamar Jackson playing = You need to play a massive amount of Lamar Jackson.
  • Arguably the highest ceiling QB in the NFL has posted 7 of 9 games with 20+ DK points and 3 30+ games.
  • Last year he posted 27 and 34 DK points in his two games against the Browns.
  • Going to need 50-60% in the Captain spot.

Marquise Brown, $10,800

  • Expected back this week, is the Ravens top WR and has six games with 19 DK points or more.
  • In two games against the Browns last year he put up 7/151/1.

Mark Andrews, $8,200

  • Two straight big games (14/136/1 on 18 targets).
  • Was big against the Brown last year in two games with 10/136/2.

 

Value:

Kareem Hunt, $7,000

  • If he is healthy enough to be active, I assume he will slide right back into his normal role.
  • Before his visit to the IR he averaged 12 carries and 3-4 targets per game.
  • If the Browns find themselves behind, the game script will fit into Hunts favor.
  • A Lamar/Freeman/Hunt pairing would make sense.

Devonta Freeman, $6,800

  • Even with Murray back last week, the Ravens elected to use Freeman the majority of the time (16 carries and 6 targets) and he produced 20 DK points.
  • Freeman is effective in both the running and passing game.
  • I think it is reasonable to stack with Lamar for both a connection through the air and game script reason.

 

Sleepers:

Austin Hooper, $5,200

  • His two best games of the season the last two weeks (8/78/1 on 12 targets).
  • The Ravens have been more vulnerable to the tight end position than the WR position this season.
  • The Browns are likely to be playing from behind, thus a negative game script.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, $5,000

  • The #2, if not the #1 receiving option on the Browns offense with OBJ gone.
  • Has been very strong in three of his last four games with 12, 29.1, and 16.6 DK points.
  • Plays almost exclusively on the perimeter where the Ravens are more vulnerable with Humphrey and Averett.
  • Good game script to target the Browns passing game.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Justin Tucker, $4,200

  • I think I said this in my showdown article for the last time the Ravens played, Tucker is one of the few kickers I will ever own.
  • There is the decent likelihood that he kicks a couple 50 yarders.
  • He has 6 out of 10 games where he has posted 10+ DK points.
  • In a Ravens heavy stack, we will save some cap space with Tucker.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Jackson, Freeman, Andrews, Tucker, Hunt, Peoples-Jones

C- Andrews, Jackson, Ravens, Tucker, Chubb, Hooper

C- Jackson, Brown, Andrews, Duvernay

Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson November 27, 2021 22:37

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