Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Chiefs @ Raiders

Lines:

Chiefs (-2.5) @ Raiders

O/U = 52

 

DVOA

Chiefs against the run #29
Chiefs against the pass #27
Raiders against the run #16
Raiders against the pass #17

 

Favorites:

Patrick Mahomes, #12,400

• Logic would say to not pay up for Mahomes here as his production the last three games would not have paid off this lofty price.
• However, this is a one game slate, and in prime time, so the last three weeks are meaningless.
• Call it a hunch, but I think Mahomes blows up in this spot and puts on a show.
• His last 4 games against the Raiders have resulted in 340/2, 348/2, 443/4, and 175/1.

Tyreek Hill, $11,000

• It has been an every other week thing for Hill this season. DK pts each of the past 7 weeks- 10.7, 50.6, 14.8, 22.6, 12.7, 27.4, 7.3. Last week was a dud, so we could see  a big one here.
• Mahomes just can’t find anybody else to compliment Hill and Kelce. Hill is the only big play threat Mahomes is willing to target consistently.
• A Mahomes/Hill Stack, with Jacobs makes sense.

Josh Jacobs, $8,800

• Not getting massive amount of carries, but does have 15, 16, and 13 in three of his past 4 games.
• Jacobs has rushed for at least 99 yards or a TD in each of his last four games against the Chiefs.
• Depleted everywhere, the Raiders will want to establish the run, and lean on Jacobs at home.
• A good Captain option. I will probably own 25% in that spot.

 

Value:

Hunter Renfrow, $8,400

• Emerged this season as Carr’s go-to guy. Averaging nearly 8 targets/game.
• Has double digit DK points in all but one game this season.
• Works primarily out of the slot, where he will see L’Jarius Sneed, which is one of the biggest edge matchups on our WR vs CB chart.
• Not a bad Captain option on a few rosters.

Darrel Williams, $7,200

• A lot of attention goes to the Chiefs bad run defense, but the Raiders actually allow more rushing yards per game (133.5-5^th most in the league).
• Outside of a 5 carry game against the Titans, Williams has had 21, 13, and 19 carries in three of his past 4 games.
• Adding to his value is his pass catching ability with 15 catches on18 targets the last 4 games.
• Best value option on the slate.

 

Sleepers:

Byron Pringle, $3,000

• A zero catch, zero target dud last week.
• He did play nearly half the snaps though and had seen at least two targets in every game before last week.
• Mahomes needs to utilize more than just Hill at WR and Pringle is his next best option.
• We need a couple cheap options and this would be one to pair with Mahomes and hope for a big play hook-up.

Desean Jackson, $4,200

• Newly signed this week to fill Henry Ruggs spot as a deep threat.
• Carr likes to just chuck up long shots multiple times a game.
• The Chiefs secondary has been a mess

 

Deep Sleepers:

Marcus Mariota, $6,000

• We have seen this scenario play out several times (including with Mariota himself) in the last couple of years with people winning hundreds of thousands of dollars by rostering back-up QBs.
• With this being a high scoring game, and Mariota with a high ceiling with his rushing ability, if Carr gets hurt, he might see some time.
• This is not a +EV play all the time. If you played back-up QBs all the time you would go broke.  However, I have no problem every once and a while buying a lottery ticket.

Zay Jones, $600

• Total punt and his play time might be reduced with DJAX signing.
• Still, he saw 4 targets last week with Ruggs gone, and just a couple catches would likely produce value for this cost.

 

Possible lineups:

C- D Williams, Jacobs, Renfrow, Drake, Hill, Hardman

C- Mahomes, Hill, Pringle, Robinson, Hardman, Renfrow

C- Hill, Mahomes, Pringle, D Williams, Hardman, Drake

C- Jacobs, Hill, Mahomes, Pringle, DJAX, Mariota,