Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Colts @ 49ers

Lines:

Colts @ 49ers (-4)

O/U = 43

 

DVOA

49ers against the run #15
49ers against the pass #14
Colts against the run #1
Colts against the pass #29

 

 Favorites:

Jonathan Taylor, $11,000

• Just an absolute monster lately with 34.9 and 31.8 DK points the last two weeks.
• Valuable carrying the ball, but also catching it out of the backfield as he has 15 catches for 210 yards and a score this season on 18 targets.
• He likely will not see many more than 15 carries as the Colts usually give Mack a handful, but Taylor has just been so good that he can break a long one on even a limited amount of carries.

Jimmy Garoppolo, $10,600

• Lance is out, so Jimmy G gets the favorable start against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL (29^th DVOA) that allows the 3^rd most DK points to QBs this season
• The 49ers typically like to run the majority of the time but the Colts have been the most extreme funnel defense in the NFL ranking #1 against the run.
• I will be pairing Jimmy G with Samuel and also Aiyuk.

Deebo Samuel, $9,600

• This price is far to low for Deebo this week as he easily leads the 49ers in targets this season with 52 and has 31 catches for 548 and 3 TDs.
• The combination of Xavier Rhodes, Rock Ya Sin, and Kenny Moore comprise one of the worst secondary’s in the NFL.

Michael Pittman, $8,800

• Last week was the first game that Pittman had not caught at least six balls since week 1. Of course the Colts ran all over the Texans and had no need to throw the ball at all, so we can disregard that result.
• A huge 46 targets this season and will likely see the majority of his coverage from Emmanuel Moseley or Josh Norman, who is not near the corner he has been in the past.

 

Value:

Eli Mitchell, $8,200

• Worked as the clear 49er #1 back last game ahead of Sermon and had 9 carries and 2 targets. He will get more involvement with Jimmy G in rather than Lance.
• The Colts do have a strong rush defense, but Mitchell will get to much volume to ignore and $8,200 for a lead back is cheap.

Zach Pascal, $6,200

• The best cornerback match-up this week for the Colts is at slot receiver where Pascal plays the majority of the time.
• At least 5 targets in each game (except against the Texans), and has found the endzone 3 times.
• Colts are the road dog and likely will need to pass more than run in this game.

 

Sleepers:

Brandon Aiyuk, $7,000

• Call me a sucker, but I still think Aiyuk is going to put together a decent season.
• I have no idea why the 49ers have been stupid about his involvement, but now with Kittle on IR, and the fact that they are 2-3, he is to talented to ignore.
• With Kittle out last game he saw his second most targets of the season (4).
• The Colts secondary is horrendous and the 49ers will need to pass through the funnel defense.

Kyle Juszczyk, $4,000

• With Kittle out, his targets should increase and actually he has seen 11 the last 3 games.
• Not an explosive option, but certainly capable of seeing a goaline carry or sneak in on a catch as he did against the Packers.

 

Possible lineups:

C-Samuel/Jimmy G/Aiyuk/Mitchell/49ers/Pascal (49er onslaught)

C- Samuel/Taylor/Pittman/Juszczyk/Dwelley/Pascal

C- Aiyuk/Jimmy G/Juszczyk/Wentz/Pittman/Hines

C-Pittman/Aiyuk/Hines/Mitchell