Sunday Night Showdown Slate-Washington @ Eagles

Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson January 2, 2021 22:19

Sunday Night Showdown Slate-Washington @ Eagles

Washington (-2) @ Eagles, Game Total = 43

DVOA

Washington against the run #13
Washington against the pass #2
Eagles against the run #12
Eagles against the pass #26

The Eagles defense, and more specifically their secondary has been getting crushed lately and in the last two weeks have given up 68 points and 377 yards through the air to Andy Dalton last week and 432 to Kyler Murray the week before.  Alex Smith was listed as questionable all week, but now it has been reported that he will play.  As much as I do not like Smith normally, he is very good option on a showdown slate against this horrendous pass defense.  Stacking him with a couple of the following pass catchers is  a great start to most rosters.

Terry Mclaurin is the top dog for the Washington receivers and will likely get the shadow coverage from Darius Slay.  This is far from an automatic fade of Mclaurin as he is a super talented guy with tons of upside.  But as we have seen this season, including last week it is often the perimeter receiver opposite of the #1 guy (away from Slay’s coverage) that sees a big boost, much like Michael Gallup last week.  Cam Sims is that guy for Washington and he has actually been seeing good volume (17 targets the last two weeks). I am really high on Sims in this game for the price.

Logan Thomas has been a target monster over the last month (9,7, 16, 12 over his last four games).  The Eagles have given up big points to tight ends (10th most DK points) as well as receivers. Thomas has averaged 18.6 DK points over his last four games and that is with only getting into the endzone once.

As of this writing Antonio Gibson is questionable even though he saw 10 carries last week (61 yards rushing) and did not appear to reaggravate his injury.  The Eagles have given up the 9th most rushing yards per game, although have limited opposing runningbacks to the 12th least DK points.  Gibson has averaged nearly 6 yards per carry in each of his last four games and if he gets 15 carries he would be a great play, but I am not sure he will however, which leads me in the direction of being underweight his exposure.  JD Mckissic is a monster pass catching threat out of the backfield and has had 10 targets in three out of his last four games.  This is huge for showdown slates and makes him every bit appealing as Gibson, if Washington ends up with a negative game script and plays from behind.

Miles Sanders has been ruled out meaning Boston Scott will be the lead back as he was in weeks 7 and 8 when Sanders was out previously.  In those two games Scott averaged 13 carries a game and scored 9 and 18 DK points.  At only $1,400, this is a no-brainer and needs to be owned on the vast majority of your lineups even though he will be the heaviest owned guy on the slate.

Zach Ertz has had 7 targets in each of the last two games and that number could be even higher this week with Dallas Goedert and Richard Rogers ruled out.  This is almost assuredly Ertz’s last game in an Eagles uniform, so I expect him to be even more of a part of their offense.  Washington has not been great against the tight end (11th most DK points) and Hurst will be looking for underneath routes with the pressure that will come from the Washington defensive line.

Deshaun Jackson is out for the Eagles, which leaves Alshon Jeffrey who has been showing his age, getting minimal separation and even less volume (6 targets the last four games).  Hurts is obviously not a gunslinger, so it makes it hard to want to load up on Eagle receivers.  Jalen Reagor would be my favorite of any of them as he seems to have attracted most of Hurts attention with 15 targets the last two games and has the best match-up.

 

Must Haves:

Jalen Hurts $11.400

Boston Scott $1,400

Logan Thomas $7,800

 

Favorite players for the price:

Jalen Reagor $6,200

Cam Sims $4,800

 

Low Dollar Options:

Zach Ertz $4,600

Steven Sims $2,400

 

Possible Stacks:

Hurts/Scott/Smith/Mclaurin

Smith/Sims/Thomas/Hurts

Jeff Bergerson
By Jeff Bergerson January 2, 2021 22:19

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