Sunday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 14: PHI @ DAL

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Lines:

O/U: 51.5

Cowboys, –3.5

2023 DVOA:

PHI: Defense Against the Run: #8 (2023–4th fewest yards allowed per game at 90.3 yards; 2022–16th fewest yards allowed per game at 121.3 yards).

PHI: Defense Against the Pass: #24

DAL: Defense Against the Run: #9 (2023–12th fewest yards allowed per game at 106.0 yards; 2022–11th most yards allowed per game at 121.4 yards).

DAL: Defense Against the Pass: #7

2022/2023 Games:

Week 6:

O/U: 42.5, PHI –6.5; Actual-PHI 26, DAL 17.

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: J. Hurts/16.9; C. Rush/8.24, [Dak did not play]

RB: E. Elliott/15.6; M. Sanders/14.2; T. Pollard/7.2.

WR: A.J. Brown/17.7; DeVonta Smith/15.4; CeeDee Lamb/12.7.

TE: J. Ferguson/14; D. Goedert/4.2; Peyton Hendershot/4.2.

K: J. Elliott/10; Maher/5.

D/ST: PHI/7; DAL/4.

Perfect Lineup: Ferguson, Elliott / Hurts, Brown, Sanders, D. Smith

Week 16:

O/U: 47.5, DAL –4; Actual-DAL 40, PHI 34.

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: D. Prescott/31.98; G. Minshew II/28.7; (Hurts did not play)

RB: T. Pollard/14; E. Elliott/13.1; K. Gainwell/9.8; M. Sanders/7.1.

WR: C. Lamb/37; D. Smith/34.3; A.J. Brown/19.3; Gallup/13.6

TE: D. Goedert/9.7; D. Schultz/7.3.

K: B. Maher/18; J. Elliott/11.

D/ST: PHI/10; DAL/7.

​Perfect Lineup: D. Smith, Minshew, Gainwell / Prescott, Lamb, Maher.

Week 9, 2023:

O/U: 46.0, PHI –3; Actual-PHI 28, DAL 23.

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: D. Prescott/31.36; J. Hurts/25.88.

RB: D. Swift/9.4; K. Gainwell/9.3; T. Pollard/9.3.

WR: C. Lamb/32.1; A.J. Brown/19.6; D. Smith/14.1; J. Tolbert/13.9; K. Turpin/7.5,

TE: J. Ferguson/22.1; D. Goedert/8.

K: B. Aubrey/7.

D/ST: PHI/7.

​Perfect Lineup: Tolbert, Prescott, Lamb, Ferguson / Hurts, A.J. Brown.

Thoughts:

The Last 6 Eagles-Cowboys matchups have all hit the over. The Cowboys have gone 5-1 at home this season while scoring 41.5 points per game. The Eagles 4-1 to the over in their last 5 games and the return of Dallas Goedert should help that cause. Both teams were stingy against the run in the opener this season and a continuance of that seems probable. Newly acquired Shaquille Leonard should see snaps here. The Eagles won the opener this season by 5, despite the Cowboys winning the yardage battle by more than 100 and having 2 70+ yard drives ending without points. The Eagles D has a whole has given up 400 yards in 4 of their last 5 games and it will be interesting to see how they respond on the road after last week’s beatdown by the 49ers. I will take the over and lay the points, Cowboys win at home 31-27.

Now as far as DFS goes, normally, I tend to favor 4 heavy usage plays, but for this match up, it feels as if you have 3 strong plays and the likelihood of a serious spread. The spread was the type of play that hit earlier this season (e.g. – Tolbert as winning Captain above) and could certainly end up being the case again, so don’t be afraid to use whoever works for you up top, otherwise, I will end up heavily using the 3 mentioned more so than a typical 4.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,200/CeeDee Lamb – In the last 2 games that Lamb has faced the Eagles, with Dak behind center, he has averaged 34.55 DK points. Over his last 7 games, including the earlier Eagles game, Lamb is averaging a stat line of 9/118/1 on 12.3 targets for 29.95 DK points per game. The Eagles have given up the most DK points to opposing WR units so far this season at 50.0 points per game.

$11,000/Jalen Hurts – The Cowboys have allowed a combined 20 TDs (17/3, passing to rushing) and the 13th fewest points to opposing QBs so far this season at 17.0 points per game. In the last 2 games he has played against Dallas, including last and this season, Hurts have averaged 21.4 DK points per game. The Eagles come in with a clean injury report and last week, Geno Smith lit up the Cowboys for 3 TDs and 334 yards through the air. Hurts has 5 rushing TDs since Week 11.

$10,600/Dak Prescott – Scored 31+ DK in each of the last 2 games vs. the Eagles, including the Week 9 loss in Philadelphia. Has a 13:1 TD/INT ratio over his last 4 games since, while averaging 30.4 DK points. The Eagles have given up the most DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 24.2 points per game.

 

Moderate Usage:

$10,200/A.J. Brown – I want to go there with Brown more, but in most of the combinations I have seen and tried to make, it comes at the cost of one of the big 3 in the section above. I do think you can still get there with a big 4 approach, including him, with a more extreme stars/scrubs approach, provided with the last 2, you make sure to pick 2 players that are active and do in fact produce points. Has now faced the Cowboys 3 times as an Eagles player and has averaged 18.9 DK points on an average stat line of 6/78.7/0.33. The Cowboys have given up the 4thfewest receiving yards and 5th fewest DK points to opposing WRs so far this season at 30.3 points per game.

$5,400/Dallas Goedert – Has not played since the forearm injury in Week 9, but to the point, was averaging 10.4 DK points and carrying an 18% target share on the team from Hurts. In his 3 prior matchups against Dallas, had yet to finish with double-digit DK points. Of the middle salaried options on the slate, feels like an upside piece you need, especially if the game blows by the over. The Cowboys have given up just the 12th fewest DK points to opposing TE units so far this season; however, they are allowing an average of 0.5 TDs per game to the position.

$5,000/Brandon Aubrey – With the Dallas kicker (Maher and now Aubrey) averaging 10 points against the Eagles over their last 3 games, I don’t see any reason to keep them out of your pool, especially with what Dallas has done at home this season and this over total being the highest of the last 3 meetings in the series between the two. The Eagles have allowed the 4th fewest DK points to opposing kickers so far this season. Aubrey has scored at least 9 in 8 of the team’s 12 games so far this season.

$4,800/Jake Elliott – Elliott has averaged 8.3 DK points per game against the Cowboys over the last 3 meetings against them dating back to last season. The Cowboys have allowed the fewest yards to opposing kickers so far this season. If there is a concern here, it could be that the Eagles elect to go for 2 in more situations and eliminate the XP scoring chances he might ordinarily bank.

$1,600/KaVontae Turpin – My favorite of the cheaper options which you are likely to need 1 of to round out some of your lineup builds. Was $1,400 in the Week 9 game and ended up in the optimal Captain slot thanks to his 1/5/1 on his 1 target out of the backfield. Could it end up the same way here? Perhaps. More so than that, he has seen multiple targets in 7 games so far this season and is seeing a target in 1 in every 4 routes run on the season.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$8,400/DeVonta Smith – Smith could be the most volatile piece of the puzzle on the slate. In the 3 games without Goedert, Smith saw 2.5 more receptions per game and averaged 40 more yards per game. Now that Goedert is back, does he remain hot for at least one more game or does he revert to the average from the 9 games prior? Smith has scored at least 14 DK points and has at least 1 TD in each of his last 3 games against Dallas, which certainly could bode well for him here. Dallas is likely to throw a ton of man coverage against the Eagles WRs and Smith ranks 67th in yards per route run which drops that ceiling enough to keep him down in this range and not in the range above. You want exposure to him, so I would not fade, and I would find a way to get there minimally at least.

$8,000/Tony Pollard – Including the earlier Eagles matchup, Pollard has finished under 85 yards from scrimmage in 5 of his last 6 games. While the Eagles have allowed limited total yardage and in a tough rushing matchup, under the surface, they are allowing the 10th most yards before contact per attempt and currently are allowing the 8th highest explosive run rate. They are likely to slow Pollard and keep it fairly in check, but all it takes is one big play to change his box score outlook here and he has scored at least 17 DK points in each of his last 3 games.

$7,400/D’Andre Swift – Has 15 or more touches in 10 of his last 11 games. Was held to just 9.4 points in the Week 9 victory and another tough effort seems in store for him here. Cannotentirely ignore the fact he has scored double digit DK points in 8 games this season and maintains a 12% target share.

$7,000/Brandin Cooks – Going to want to get to Cooks more than I will find myself getting there because it is likely to come at the cost of someone else. A comparable price compared to Ferguson is certainly going to make them more of an either/or proposition. Averaging 19.05 DK points on a stat line of 5/83/0.75 on 5.75 targets per game over the last 4 games makes him worth a long look.

$6,800/Jake Ferguson – Has scored in double-digits in each of the last 2 games against the Eagles where he was the primary TE option. Has scored in double-digit in 4 of his last 6 games, including the earlier Eagles matchup. The Eagles have allowed the 10th most DK points to opposing TE units so far this season at 12.8 points per game. Ranks 2nd in the league among all positions in red zone targets.

$4,600/Kenneth Gainwell – Has not scored in double-digit DK points since Week 1 and that was the week that Swift had notemerged as the RB1 for the team. Gainwell has seen just 8 touches once in the last 9 games. The Cowboys have allowed the 3rd fewest DK points to opposing RBs so far this season. You might ask yourself why to play him then? Gainwell has such an entrenched role as the preferred passing catching back, that you cannot ignore it, especially with the Cowboys allowing 5+ targets to the position.

$4,000/Cowboys D/ST – The Eagles have allowed the 6th fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units so far this season. Like the Eagles D/ST situation, the unit is likely to give up points to the Eagles and the best scoring chances will be from the secondary ways to score points and with defensive TDs in 5 games this season, it’s a boom/bust unit that you will want at least a little exposure to.

$3,600/Eagles D/ST – The unit has only 4 games with 9 or more DK points so far this season. And they seem likely to give up points to Dallas here. Dallas has allowed the 2nd fewest DK points to opposing D/ST so far this season. Dak is likely to drop back a ton here and that should permit the opportunity to generate points here. And as we have seen plenty on these primetime showdown slates so far this season, the unexpected has happened quite a bit.

$3,000/Rico Dowdle – Dowdle did not see much action in the earlier Eagles game this season, but with him averaging 6 touches and 28 yards from scrimmage a game, the coaching staffwill mix him a little differently here. Should that be the case, he can find a little room in space and produce? An extreme dart throw that will need a TD to pay off, but if he gets the touches, it could happen.

$2,800/Jalen Tolbert – Should run a route on 50% of Dak’s drop backs. Has seen multiple targets in 4 of the team’s last 5 games. Still listed as WR4 on the depth chart but has overtakenGallup for WR3 over the last few games in many comparable categories and has drawn even in the rest. Cheap exposure to the Cowboys’ passing game is a good thing and the salary is affordable enough to aid in stars/scrubs builds.

$2,400/Quez Watkins – After producing a 3/28 line on 4 targets last week while running a route on 70% of Hurts’ drop backs, Watkins has nudged Jones and Zacchaeus back to WR4/WR5 territory. He is going to need a big yardage total and or a TD to truly pay off, but with a historical average depth of target in the double-digit yardage range, the coaching stuff figures to try him deep at least once in this game like what Smith and the Seahawks did last week. He is cheap exposure to the passing game here and that is something you are going to want.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Lamb, Prescott, Gallup, Tolbert / Hurts, Goedert

C: Lamb, Prescott, Cooks, Tolbert, Turpin / Hurts

C: Lamb, Prescott, Tolbert / Hurts, Goedert, Watkins

C: Hurts, Elliott / Prescott, Lamb, Aubrey, Turpin

C: Hurts, Swift, Watkins / Prescott, Lamb, Turpin

C: Hurts, Brown / Prescott, Pollard, Tolbert, Turpin

C: Prescott, Lamb, Turpin / Hurts, Goedert, Elliott

C: Prescott, Lamb, Tolbert, Turpin / Hurts, Swift

C: Prescott, Pollard, Gallup, Turpin / Hurts, Brown

 

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)