Sunday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 9: BUF @ CIN

Sunday Night Showdown Slate – Regular Season, Week 9: BUF @ CIN

Lines:

O/U: 50.5

Bengals, –2.5

2023 DVOA:

BUF: Defense Against the Run: #17 (2023–11th most yards allowed per game at 122.0 yards; 2022–6th fewest yards allowed per game at 104.8 yards).

BUF: Defense Against the Pass: #13

CIN: Defense Against the Run: #25 (2023–5th most yards allowed per game at 138.6 yards; 2022–5th fewest yards allowed per game at 103.5 yards).

CIN: Defense Against the Pass: #11

2022 Games:

Week 20/Divisional:

O/U: 49.0, BUF, -5.5; Actual-CIN 27, BUF 10.

Noteworthy Scorers:

QB: Burrow/20.78; Allen/18.2.

RB: Mixon/23.2; Perine/11.4; Singletary/11.2.

WR: Chase/17.4; Diggs/7.5; Beasley/6.3; Shakir/6.

TE: Hurst/16.9; Knox/11.5.

K: McPherson/9; Bass/4.

D/ST: CIN/7

Perfect Lineup: Mixon, Burrow, Chase, Hurst, Perine / Knox

Thoughts:

The Bengals have won the last 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Bills and covered the last three. The Bills haven’t covered the spread in the last 4 games and look to be adjusting on the fly as evidenced by the recent signing of Leonard Fournette for the backfield. At $200 he makes an intriguing play tonight if he is activated in time for the game. I am taking a stand against 24 hours in advance because I’m not entirely convinced, he will be activated, but if he were I would consider adding him to my player pool. The Bills looked like they could be getting things on track based on the Bucs game last week and as they tend to show up for big games, I think they will go all out here. However, as the Bengals seem to be clicking for a few games now as Burrow has gotten healthier, I will take Cincy 28-27 in a shootout win at home.

Captain’s Picks/Heavy Usage:

$11,400/Josh Allen – The Bengals are allowing the 16th most DK points to opposing QBs so far this season at 17.7 points per game. Allen is averaging 25.6 DK points this season, having eclipsed 17.7 DK points in 6 of 8 games. Allen has rushed 7 times and scored a TD on the ground in each of the last 2 games which makes his floor/ceiling numbers elite and hard to ignore here. With 7 of his 17 passing TDs coming off play-action passes this season, that might be the way to break the Bengals pass defense as they are passes to be completed at better than 70% with an average yards per completion of 14.4.

$11,000/Stefon Diggs – Produced a 4/35 line on 10 targets in the divisional last year and I’m sure having a strong desire for a huge bounce back here is major motivation for him. If the Bills are to keep it competitive, he will need to perform. Has seen at least 11 targets and scored 17 DK points in 6 of 8 games so far this season. With season long ranks of 4th in target share, 6th in air yards share, and 10th in yards per routes run, Diggs’ elite level performance so far this season makes him a must play with heavy usage.

$10,800/Ja’Marr Chase – With WR1s finding the endzone in each of the last 2 games against the Bills, Chase seems like a strong candidate to make it 3 in a row due to his recent hot streak. Chase has averaged 32.4 DK points over his last 3 games on a 31/372/4-line from 44 targets. Produced a 5/61/1 line on 8 targets in the divisional win last season.

$10,200/Joe Burrow – The Bills have held opposing QBs to the 2nd fewest DK points this season at an average of 13.8 points per game. Burrow has eclipsed that in each of his last 3 games and 1 additional on the season. During Cincy’s 3 game winning streak, Burrow has averaged 23.3 DK points, 261 passing yards, completing 78% of his passes and producing an 8:2 TD/INT ratio. With Burrow also producing 20 in the divisional victory last January, I would expect him to do the same here yet again.

 

Moderate Usage:

$8,000/Joe Mixon – I didn’t come into the game thinking I’d be high on Mixon, but after digging into him and the probable outcomes a bit, I am. Looking back at the division game last year, he produced a 22 touch, 123 yards from scrimmage and 1 TD line, while finishing as the captain in the optimal lineup. I realize some of that was game script and outcome dependent. He remains a strong candidate to possibly duplicate that again here. He scored 20 DK points last week in his best game of the season, producing 19 touches for 110 yards from scrimmage with a rushing TD. He’s averaging 16 carries per game this season. 1 in 7 runs against the Bills have resulted in a gain of 10 or more yards, the 2nd highest mark in the league during the season to date. Additionally, they are allowing almost 2 yards before contact per rush thus far this season. If the Bengals continue to feed and feature him as their stud RB, an output of at least the mid-teens should be in store yet again for Mixon here.

$6,600/Tee Higgins – Higgins scored in double-digit DK points last week for only the 2nd time this season. The snap count was up for him after a run of injuries, and he saw 6 targets for the first time since Week 3. He saw 4 targets in the division win last year and with an 11-yard average depth of target this year, pacing the team, he feels like another candidate to slip into double-digits and one that you’ll want to use if the shootout materializes as we all expect.

$6,200/James Cook – With over 16% of the runs against the Bengals gaining 10 or more yards, this looms as a great spot to see Cook perhaps break one or two for a big gain. Cook has scored double-digit DK points in 5 of 8 games so far this season. The Bengals are allowing the 14th most DK points to opposing RB units on the season at 22.5 points per game. Still, he’s only scored 2 TDs this season, but with a consistent run of at least 12 backfield carries in 7 of 8 games this season, a mid-teens floor seems safe for him this week.

$5,400/Tyler Boyd – Struggled in the playoff game only catching 1 pass on the 2 targets he saw, but after catching TDs in each of the last 2 games this year, I’m willing to try and ride the hot hand. Has seen at least 7 targets in 5 of 7 games; however, has produced more than 40 yards in only 1 game this season. The Bills are allowing the 11th most DK points to opposing slot WRs this season at 12.4 points per game, so I’m optimistic he’ll find a way to creep into double-digit DK points for the 3rdconsecutive game here.

$3,400/Khalil Shakir – With TE/Knox on the IR, the Bills have shifted their offense a bit to feature more 3 WR sets and Shakir has been the primary beneficiary so far. He produced a 6/92 line on 6 targets and a 65% snap share in last week’s game. With the Bengals allowing the 12th most DK points to opposing slot WRs this season at 12.3 points per game, Shakir should loom large again here this week.

$2,600/Latavius Murray – Murray has averaged 8 touches and 28 yards from scrimmage over the last 3 weeks, while getting the first run out of the backfield in each of the last 3 games. The newly signed Fournette looms large, especially if active, but Murray should still see work. With the Bengals allowing a league worst 2.6 yards before contact per attempt, this could be a heavier than normal yardage week for Murray which could ultimately lead to a TD.

 

The Rest (Lighter Usage):

$6,800/Dalton Kincaid – The Bengals are allowing the most DK points on the season to opposing TE units through their 7 games at 16.1 points per game. With no real threat for snaps and massive playing time, most of those points should go Kincaid’s way, especially with the Bengals also allowing the 5th most receptions and 3rd most yards to the position. After producing a 5/65/1 line on 7 targets in last week’s game on an 84% snap rate, it shouldn’t be much of a stretch to expect a repeat performance here.

$5,200/Tyler Bass – After scoring 50 points over the season’s first 4 games, Bass has scored just 13 points on 2 of 5 FGs over the last 3 games. Was somewhat of a non-factor in the playoff game loss to the Bengals in January, but as both offenses seemed to look better last week, would expect him to have plenty of opportunities for scoring here. Facing the Bengals who have allowed the 16th most DK points to opposing kickers so far this season only adds to the appeal.

$4,800/Evan McPherson – Averaging 8.6 DK points on the season. Facing the Bills who are allowing the 8th fewest DK points to opposing kickers thus far this season. With a team total north of 24, in a projected shootout, as the home team favorite, there should be plenty of ways for McPherson to rack up points here in this game.

$4,200/Bills D/ST – The Bills D/ST is averaging 10 DK points per game but is averaging just 5 DK points over the last 3 games. The Bengals are allowing the 8th fewest DK points to opposing D/ST units on the season. The Bills are still generating solid pressure as they have been able to sack the opposing QB at least 3 times in 6 games so far this season. However, I think until they get healthier the elite level ceiling of this unit is severely lowered and should be for this game as well.

$3,800/Bengals D/ST – The Bengals have scored at least 9 DK points in 4 of their last 5 games. The Bills have allowed the 4thfewest DK points to opposing D/ST units thus far this season. However, even in the potential for a shootout, I do like the Bengals as a scoring option as they have secured multiple INTs in 4 games and been able to sack the opposing QB at least 3 times in 5 games.

$1,600/Irv Smith, Jr. – The Bills have allowed the 7th fewest DK points to opposing TE units through 8 weeks at 9.1 points per game. Smith had his best game of the season last week against the 49ers scoring 5.5 DK points on a 4/25 line on 4 targets. Not necessarily expecting much here, but with Hudson getting signed off the practice squad and making things happen with targets the last 2 weeks, motivation of reduced playing time might be a good thing for him here.

$800/Trenton Irwin – Saw 2 targets in last week’s game but output as has been spotty outside of the Week 5 game where he stepped in for Higgins while he was out. Profiles as a bit of a punt play with upside especially in a potential shootout situation.

$200/Deonte Harty – The Bills punt return seems to be fading out of the team’s offensive plans now, so this is a risky salary saver as there is no guarantee he could see many snaps, but it certainly should allow you to grab your 4 favorite studs at the top of the board which might make whatever production missing here negligible.

 

Combos to Consider:

C: Allen, Shakir, Harty / Burrow, Chase, Mixon

C: Allen, Diggs, Sherfield, Harty / Burrow, Chase

C: Diggs, Allen, Cook, Shakir / Chase, Smith

C: Diggs, Allen, Harty / Burrow, Chase, Irwin

C: Chase, Burrow, Boyd / Allen, Cook, Harty

C: Chase, Burrow, Mixon, Irwin / Allen, Shakir

C: Burrow, Chase, Mixon, Irwin / Allen, Shakir

C: Burrow, Chase, McPherson, Smith / Diggs, Cook

 

That is, it from here. Do not forget to track the NFL Slack Channel – for updates. Thanks for reading and Best of Luck this week from the FGI Team!

–Nik (@MrGuruNick)