Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Saints @ Bucs

Lines:

Saints @ Bucs (-11)

Over/Under 45.5

 

DVOA

Saints against the run #1
Saints against the pass #11
Bucs against the run #17
Bucs against the pass #5

 

Notes:

The Saints got the best of the Bucs 36-27 in New Orleans in their first meeting this year in week 8.

This is a tough match-up for Taysom Hill and the Saints.  The Bucs are tough to run on and force teams to throw the ball.  That is certainly not what the Saints want to do with Hill.  If the Saints fall too far behind, this could get ugly.

On the other sided of the ball, Mike Evans caught a touchdown in their first meeting, but it was only one of two catches for 48 yards.  Marcus Lattimore has been tough on Evans in their meetings over the past few years.  It is hard to take Evans completely out of the game, but for his price, I am going to go with other Bucs pass catching options.

 

Favorites:

Tom Brady, $12,200

• It is going to be a lot of passing for the Bucs in this one, because it is really difficult to run on the Saints.
• In week 8 he threw it 40 times for 375/4.

Chris Godwin, $10,000

• It is always smart to pick on the Saints from the slot. We have been doing it for years with a ton of success.  Godwin plays in the slot about 70% of the time.
• Godwin went 8/140/1 in their first game this year.
• Has a staggering 32 targets the last two games.

Leonard Fournette, $9,200

• The Saints run defense is real tough, but Fournette has been such a weapon catching the ball out of the backfield, that he can post a nice game in the passing game alone.
• At least 6 targets in each of his last five games, Fournette has a whopping 28 catches in that stretch. Goaline carries as well, Fournette cannot be ignored as a legit option for the Bucs.
• He does have a Questionable designation although he did practice Friday, just double check to make sure he is active.

 

Value:

Trequan Smith, $5,800

• 3/33/1 the first time against the Bucs, Smith has the best match-up of any Saints WR (Sean Murphy Bunting +89)
• I really do not like much with the Saints offense this week, but we know they are going to have to throw the ball (successful or not) and Smith should see the most targets.

 

Sleepers:

Marquez Callaway, $4,800

• At least 4 targets in each of his last 9 games.
• I don’t like him as much as Trequan, but he is cheaper and if he breaks a long one, he will shatter his salary.
• If this were not a Showdown Slate and I didn’t have to own a Saint, I wouldn’t, but since I do, I want to pay down for WR.

Bucs Def, $4,000

• As I talked about earlier, I see the Bucs getting ahead early and the Saints having no path to success, given Hill’s ineptitude throwing the football.
• A large, home favorite has this playing right into the defenses hands and racking up some turnovers and hopefully a score.

 

Deep Sleepers:

Ty Johnson, $1,600

• Perriman is not going to play in this game, which makes Johnson the clear #3.
• In week 8 he had his best week of the season against the Saints 5/65. Much of that had to do with Lattimore being glued to Evans.
• The same thing might happen in this game making Johnson a screaming deal.

Adam Trautman, $200

• Activated from IR, he could see the majority of play at TE for the Saints.
• In his 10 games he has played over 50% of the snaps and in some contests up to 80%.
• The game before he was placed on IR he went 8/58/1 in week 11.

Scotty Miller, $200

• Total punt, but he might get a couple targets with Perriman out and Lattimore locked up on Evans.

 

Possible lineups:

C- Godwin, Brady, Fournette, Bucs, Callaway, Succop

C- Brady, Godwin, Evans, Fournette, Ty Johnson, Trautman

C- Brady, Godwin, Fournette, Trequan, Ty Johnson, Bucs