Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Steelers @ Bills
Steelers @ Bills (-2), Game Total = 48
DVOA
Bills against the run #18
Bills against the pass #14
Steelers against the run #3
Steelers against the pass #1
The Bills are vulnerable to the run game, but the Steelers offensive line has been one of the worst run blocking lines in all of football. That was evident last week when they could not get any penetrate the line whatsoever against Washington. Throughout the year the Steelers have been content to just scrap the running game completely and have Ben Roethlisberger chuck it 40 times, which he has done in each of the last five games. Ben has thrown for at least 2 touchdown passes in every game except for two this season and has topped the 300 yard mark four times.
James Conner will return for the Steelers, but the way the line has been run blocking, his upside sure looks limited. In the three games leading up to his time away he only recorded DK point totals of 12.9, 6.8, and 4. He certainly could score by catching the ball out of the backfield, but it is hard to see him getting many more than 15 carries or approaching 100 yards.
Diontae Johnson has clearly become Ben Roethlisberger’s favorite target and easily leads the Steelers in targets over the last five weeks with a staggering 62 targets. During that period he has topped the 100 yard mark twice and gotten into the endzone twice. Tre’Davious White and Levi Wallace patrol the perimeter for the Bills, and although neither is a glaring weakness, they have been burned plenty this year by opposing receivers and have actually given up the 13th most receiving yards per game (249).
Chase Claypool had been a key target coming into last weeks game, but he only saw four targets against Washington and lost some playing time and targets to James Washington. That is certainly concerning if you are paying $8,400 for him. He is the Steelers biggest deap threat and big play threat however.
JuJu Smith-Schuster continues to be the possession receiver for the Steelers and see tons of targets (44 the last five games) and catches, although for his 19 catches over the last two weeks, he has only managed a miniscule 84 yards. His minimal yardage makes him completely dependent upon getting into the endzone. For high upside, we would likely be better off with Claypool.
Eric Ebon has come on lately, especially the last two weeks where he has caught 14 balls and seen 22 targets. The Bills have not been good against the tight end position and have actually given up the second most yards to tight ends this year in the NFL (803) and the 7th most DK points. $6,400 is a great price.
Not much for good low dollar options for the Steelers this week as it is hard to touch any of their running game. James Washington is $2,600 and probably our best shot at a big play similar to last week.
Josh Allen has been terrific for most of the season and much like with the Steelers, the Bills acknowledge their inefficiency with their run game and are content to air it out the vast majority of the time. What adds to Allen’s massive ceiling is his rushing ability as he has rushed for six touchdowns this season. The Steelers have given up the 2nd least passing yards per game and the least DK points to opposing quarterbacks. With that being said, their resume of who they have shut down this season is not exactly sparkling (Alex Smith, Robert Griffin III, Jake Luton, and Garrett Gilbert) were four of the last five they have faced. I doubt Allen will throw for 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, but I won’t be afraid to roster him against them on a showdown slate.
Cole Beasley had a monster game against the 49ers, just as I predicted because of their horrible slot corner play and their good perimeter corner play. Things are different this week and Beasley does not have near as easy of a match-up (Mike Hilton as slot corner). Stefon Diggs is the man and will get the heavy volume as he has all year averaging more than 10 targets/game. He will have a combination of Cameron Sutton and Steven Nelson covering him, both are winnable match-ups for Diggs. Because of the volume and upside, Diontae and Diggs are my two favorite plays on the this slate and most owned players in the Captain spot.
With John Brown still likely to be out, Gabriel Davis is the #2 perimeter receiver and has has 15.8 and 16.9 DK points the last two weeks. Again, the perimeter corners for the Steelers are good, but not amazing, so for the price ($5,000) Davis should be in play.
If the Bills abandon the run then we will definitely want Devin Singletary over Zach Moss as he is easily the dominant pass catcher. Moss will likely get the goaline play time, although with Allen taking so many himself, that further damages Moss’s upside. Singletary consistently sees 3-4 targets per game and has actually had 29 carries the last two games as well with positive game scripts, which says a lot about his standing ahead of Moss.
Tyler Kroft was a coaches decision inactive last week, leaving only Dawson Knox and blocker Lee Smith at tight end. Knox was able to turn one of his four catches into a touchdown for the second week in a row and narrowly missed a second against the 49ers. The Steelers have been tough against the tight end position yielding only 2 touchdowns all year, so we certainly should not load up on Knox, but it wouldn’t hurt to own a few shares.
Must Haves:
Allen $12,200
Roethlisberger $10,800
Diggs $10,000
Johnson $9,000
Favorite players for the price:
Ebron $6,400
Singletary $5,800
Home Run Ball:
Claypool $12,600
Low Dollar Options:
Knox $4,600
Washington $2,600
Best Correlating Plays/Stacks:
Allen/Diggs/Singletary
Roethlisberger/Johnson/Diggs
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