Sunday Night Showdown Slate- Titans @ Packers
Titans @ Packers (-3) , Game Total = 55.5
DVOA
Titans against the run #16
Titans against the pass #30
Packers against the run #21
Packers against the pass #18
A monstrous 55.5 point game total in this one, combined with a close spread it could be a back and forth shootout. Davante Adams, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, and to a lesser extent Aaron Rodgers will be the vast majority of my captains. In games like this it is tough to have much if any exposure to kickers or defenses.
The Titans have been awful stopping the pass this season and have allowed the 4th most passing yards per game (276). All systems go for the Packer passing attack including Rodgers, Adams, Lazard, Valdes Scantling, and Tonyan. Adams should see most of his coverage from Malcolm Butler who has had a good season, but that is no reason to think Adams will not have a healthy stat line. No fewer than 9 targets in any game since week 2, Adams had a real quiet week last week with 7 catches for 42 yards and no touchdowns (first time since week 6). Last week it was the Aaron Jones show, but Adams should have much better numbers than last week against this bad Titans secondary that has allowed the 6th most DK points to receivers. I will own Adams as captain on 40% of my rosters. Robert Tonyan has been ultra consistent this season, especially for the tight end position. Double digit DK points in each of his last five games, Tonyan has gotten into the endzone in each of the last five weeks as well. The Titans have been middle of the road defending the tight end position, so I like that price.
Helping Aaron Jones’s cause in this game is the fact that Jamaal Williams who has taken so many carries away from Jones this season is doubtful for the game. The Titans allow 114 yards per game and the 7th most DK points to runningbacks. Jones ability to catch the ball out of the backfield further heightens his ceiling. With Williams out, AJ Dillon steps into the back-up role. Last week he barely saw any action when Williams left, but if they are running up and down the field in this one, Jones is going to have to get some breaks, leaving possible opportunity for Dillon, who does not need to do a ton for his $1,400 price tag.
A clear smash spot for Derrick Henry in this game as he has topped the 100 yard mark in five of the last six games and leads the NFL in rushing with 1,679 yards. The Packers have struggled stopping the run this season when faced with really good backs (Cook- 213 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns in two games, Montgomery 103 yards, Ronald Jones 113/2) Their best defense against the run has been their offense. When they get ahead, opponents need to throw the ball more, but this game should be close, so Henry should see 20-25 carries, which will get him over 100 yards and likely a score or two.
Jaire Alexander has had a really nice season as perimeter cornerback for the Packers and you would think that he would be shadowing AJ Brown in this one, but I do not believe that will be the case. Alexander has done very little shadowing this year and has actually played the left side more than 70% of the time. AJ Brown has lined up on the left side on the offensive side more than 60% of the time, so according to that Brown would see more of Kevin King, who is not dreadful, but certainly no Jaire Alexander. Jonnu Smith has been a major disappointment this season having not eclipsed 12 DK points since week 5. Still, he plays more than 70% of the snaps, and is a very affordable $4,600, which makes him a desirable option.
Must Haves:
Henry $12,400
Rodgers $11,600
Adams $11,000
A Jones $9,400
AJ Brown $9,000
Favorite players for the price:
Tonyan $6,400
Lazard $5,600
Low Dollar Options:
J Smith $4,600
Dillon $1,400
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